Steve Mason's Exclusive Box Office Blog

EXCLUSIVE EARLY FRIDAY & 3-DAY ESTIMATES: SOCIAL NETWORK could finish on top of 2 new openers with soft starts - SECRETARIAT and LIFE AS WE KNOW IT!

STEVE MASON'S EXCLUSIVE FRIDAY & 3-DAY ESTIMATES 
1. THE SOCIAL NETWORK (Sony)- $4.7M Fri - $14.75M 3-Day - $44.9M cume
2. NEW - SECRETARIAT (Disney) - $4.5M Fri - $14.5M 3-day - $14.5M cume
3. NEW - LIFE AS WE KNOW IT (Warner Bros) - $5M Fri - $14M 3-day - $14M cume
4. LEGEND OF THE GUARDIANS (Warner Bros) - $1.8M Fri - $7.5M 3-day - $39.9M cume
5. NEW - MY SOUL TO TAKE (Universal) - $2.3M Fri - $6M 3-day - $6M cume
5. THE TOWN (Warner Bros) - 1.8M Fri - $6M 3-day - $67.4M cume
*CASE 39 (Paramount) - $850K Fri - $2.75M 3-day - $9.7M cume
*NEW - IT'S KIND OF A FUNNY STORY (Focus) - $650K Fri - $2M 3-day - $2M cume

THE SOCIAL NETWORK softer at box office than buzz would suggest with $7.7M Friday & a possible $21M opening weekend!

EXCLUSIVE EARLY FRIDAY AND 3-DAY ESTIMATES

1. The Social Network (Sony) - $7.7M Friday - $21M 3-day

2. Legend of the Guardians (Warner Bros) - $2.7M Friday - $11.7M 3-day

3. Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps (Fox) - $3.5M Friday - $11M 3-day

4. The Town (Warner Bros) - $3.5M Friday - $10M 3-day

5. Easy A (Sony) - $2.4M Friday - $7.1M 3-day

6. You Again (Disney) - $1.7M Friday - $5.7M 3-day

7. Let Me In (Overture) - $1.9M Friday - $5M 3-day

8. Case 39 (Paramount) - $1.8M Friday - $4.5M 3-day

***Waiting For Superman (Paramount) - $120K Friday - $330K 3-day

EXCLUSIVE EARLY WEEKEND BOX OFFICE: INCEPTION above expectations with $20.7M Friday & possible $54M 3-day!

Although most studio execs expected Christopher Nolan's Inception (Warner Bros) to struggle to reach $50M this weekend, the movie benefited from a strong $3M Thursday midnight take, which has pumped up the film's opening day number to a healthy $20.7M. Industry tracking never really "popped," and the movie is performing considerably better in big cities, but "the Nolan effect" and a stellar Warner Bros marketing campaign has pushed the film to a possible $54M by Monday morning.

The other major new release, the Nicolas Cage vehicle The Sorcerer's Apprentice (Disney) is a huge disappointment with a mere $5.1M or so on Friday, a likely 3-day of $15.4M and a mere $22.5M for 5 days. The wraps up a lackluster summer for mega-producer Jerry Bruckheimer, whose May offering from Disney, The Prince of Persia, also fell short of expectations.

Good news for Universal's Despicable Me (Universal), which added just over $10M on its second Friday, and, with a possible $31.9M weekend, the 3D family pic will finish #2 with a new 10-day cume of $117.5M. 

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY & WEEKEND ESTIMATES FOR JULY 16-18
1. NEW - Inception (Warner Bros) - $20.7M Fri - $54M 3-day - $54M cume
2. Despicable Me (Universal) - $10.2M Fri - $31.9M 3-day - $117.5M cume
3. NEW - The Sorcerer's Apprentice (Disney) - $5.1M Fri - $15.4M 3-day - $22.5M cume
4. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (Summit) - $4.5M Fri - $13M 3-day - $264.4M cume
5. Toy Story 3 (Disney) - $3.6M Fri - $11.6M 3-day - $362.6M cume

WEEKEND TRACKING REPORT: INCEPTION should clear $50M despite softer-than-expected tracking

Although hipsters, cinephiles and big city folks are amped up for Christopher Nolan's espionage, dream thriller INCEPTION (Warner Bros), moviegoers in the middle of the country are a little less jacked up. My sources tell me that industry tracking remains surprisingly soft. In the words of one exec, "the tracking looks more like $40M-$45M, but I'm guessing it'll get higher." My sense is that today's most innovative filmmaker (Nolan) has created an "Event Movie" and that INCEPTION can get past $50M to a possible $55M.

The extraordinarily well-reviewed DESPICABLE ME (Universal) should hold strong, likely outpacing Disney's new THE SORCERER'S APPRENTICE from mega-producer Jerry Bruckheimer. With Nicolas Cage in the driver's seat and a splashy TV and outdoor campaign, APPRENTICE seems poised for a decent $24M 3-day, and, with a Wednesday opening, the family film could grab $36M by Monday morning.

EXCLUSIVE WEEKEND TRACKING REPORT
1. NEW - INCEPTION (Warner Bros) - $55M
2. DESPICABLE ME (Universal) - $31M
3. NEW - THE SORCERER'S APPRENTICE (Disney) - $24M ($36M for 5 days)
4. THE TWILIGHT SAGA: ECLIPSE (Summit) - $18.7
5. TOY STORY 3 (Disney) - $14.3

DESPICABLE ME scores huge with $21M Friday & $58M 3-Day; TWILIGHT holds strong; PREDATORS likely 4th for the weekend!

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY & 3-DAY BOX OFFICE ESTIMATES

 FOR THE WEEKEND OF JULY 9-11

1. Despicable Me (Universal) - $21M Fri - $58M 3-day - $58M cume

2. The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (Summit) - $11M Fri - $31M 3-day - $234.7M cume

3. Toy Story 3 (Disney) - $7.2M Fri - $23.5M 3-day - $341.7M cume

4. Predators (Fox) - $9.5M Fri - $23M 3-day - $23M cume

5. The Last Airbender (Paramount) - $5.8M Fri - $18.5M 3-day - $107.6M cume