Gasol Returns....and Could Kobe Catch Kareem?

11/19/09--Chicago at Lakers

As expected, Pau Gasol's return to the lineup made everybody look better.  Kobe had an off night, making just seven of 21 shots, but it didn't matter.  Andrew Bynum left the game in the third quarter with a jammed ankle, but it was no big deal.  Gasol is the type of player who is so consistent (24 points, 13 rebounds), that it allows the rest of the team to coast a little.

After the game, the Bulls play by play guy Chuck Swirsky said to me, "there's no way this team isn't going back to the Finals."  And if they stay healthy, he's probably right.

During the third quarter, Kobe passed Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and moved into second place on the Lakers all-time scoring list.  Only Jerry West stands ahead of him, by about 1000 points.  Barring an injury, Kobe should pass him just after the All Star break.  But during the radio broadcast, we kicked around the idea that Kobe could possibly become the NBA's all-time leading scorer.

I think it's a long shot, but let's do the math just for fun:

Kobe, who is now 31, has 24,161 points.  At the end of this season, if he has a year similar to last year, he'll finish somewhere around 26,000.  Kareem, thanks to his years in Milwaukee, holds the record with 38,387. 

Let's say Kobe plays eight more years, until he's 39 (that's the same age that both Michael Jordan and Reggie Miller retired).  He would need around 12,400 points to break the record.  Kobe has averaged 25 points a game for his career, but more lately since the Shaq trade.  How much would he have to average over those eight seasons in order to break the record?

Not as much as you think.  If he stays healthy (and he's a conditioning freak who always has), he would need to score 1550 points a year to get there.  That's an average of 18.9 points per game.

Can you imagine Kobe not scoring 19 points a game?  Even in his Washington Wizards days, Jordan (who was a shell of himself at that time) averaged 23 the first year, and 19.5 the second.  Bottom line:  I think it's highly unlikely and if I had to bet on it, I would probably say no.  But it isn't as crazy of an idea as I first thought.

Next up: game two of the return of Pau, vs. Oklahoma City on Sunday.

   

Comments

[K Bryant]

If his ego still dictated his game, Kobe would love to be the all-time point leader in the NBA. But, the 2010 version of Kobe just wants to win, baby! When people talk about Jordan or Russell, they talk about their rings- their championships. I don’t know how many point Horry has scored but I know how many rings he has. Critics rarely bring up the fact of where an athlete is on the all-time points scored. Kobe understands that his great career will be defined by rings. Now, he is more willing to take a back seat to Gasol. He is more willing to let Fisher be the heart and soul of the team…as long as they still recognize who’s the real heffe!

As a fan, I would love to see a Laker replace a Laker on that list, but I would rather have parades down Fig instead.

[Matt]

This might be nitpicking but Jordan was 40 when he retired, not 39, and he averaged 20 points a game in his last season, not 19.5. I point that out because the thought that Jordan ever averaged less than 20 points a game is almost offensive, also I clearly remember him setting some scoring records for players aged 40 and above.

[Matt]

I've also thought about Kobe catching up to Kareem. I'm not sure he'll play 8 more seasons because that would give him a total of 22 seasons in the NBA(vs 15 seasons for Jordan at the same age, 13 really if you remove his broken foot sophomore season and the number 45 season).
But the way I look at it is that he's definitely going to sign an extension which gives him 5 more seasons (including this one) with the Lakers at a max salary. Worst case scenario, he averages 25 a game, and 75 games a season. That gives him around 33,000 points by age 35. Maybe he retires or maybe he plays on. If he does play on he'd need to average 20 points a game, 75 games a season for four more years to reach Kareem.
So given how many seasons it'd take him it's still really hard to predict if he can. He'd have to stay relatively injury free, and remain the number one option on offence for almost another decade. His best bet at this point is to increase his scoring average to the upper 20s/low 30s and maintain that for the next few seasons. That way he could get away with a 15ppg average in his last seasons, or a major injury of some sort. But given how good his team is, it's unlikely he'll be scoring that much. So like you, I probably wouldn't bet on it either.