The NBA released the 2009-'10 schedule today, and the Lakers have caught a few breaks:
--17 of the first 21 games are at Staples Center. Of the four road games during that stretch, the Lakers are likely to be big favorites in three--at Oklahoma City, at Houston (without Yao or McGrady), and at Golden State. The one tough game (played on Friday the 13th--no joke) is at Denver.
In 2008-09', the Lakers opened with 11 of 15 at home, and started 14-1 (the one loss was to Detroit at Staples).
--In December, the schedule is more balanced, eight home games and seven on the road. But again, the road opponents are all beatable, and I would argue the Lakers could have another huge month. Here are the road opponents in December: Utah, Chicago, Milwaukee, New Jersey, Detroit, Sacramento and Phoenix.
That means the Lakers will play 31 games before the New Year. I wouldn't be surprised if they win at least 25 of those games, and that's minimum. Look at the schedule when you get a chance and find me six losses--it's not easy. I wouldn't rule out 27-4.
--January is when we'll find out what the Lakers are made of. The Annual "Grammy Trip" (all the sports tenants get kicked out the Staples Center every year for 11 days because of the Grammys) will start after a Finals rematch at Staples with Orlando. Then the Lakers head out for eight games in 12 days, including games at Cleveland and at Boston. Last year, this was a six game trip that the Lakers went undefeated on, and it set the tone for the title run. Same drill this time around.
--February has seven home games and five road. But March is when the Lakers pay for all of that early home cooking. 11 of their 15 games in March are on the road--including stops in Orlando, Atlanta, and San Antonio. The longest trip in March is five games over eight days.
--Should the Lakers be fighting for home court advantage in April, I like their chances. Seven games, but three in the final week all at Staples: Portland, Sacramento, and at the Clippers.
The bottom line is that all schedules are the same, in the sense that everybody has to play everybody else. But this is very favorable for LA. They have a great chance to get off to a flying start, and have a kiss at the end if they need it. No major tests before Christmas, and the Christmas day game is at home.
My early prediction, which I will amend after the pre-season: the Lakers will win at least one more game than they did a year ago. I'm checking in early at 66-16.