Why the Lakers Will Win

Predicting the Lakers to beat the Magic certainly isn't going out on a limb.  When ESPN asked ten experts to pick the Finals, nine picked LA (Henry Abbott was the only one who picked Orlando, but he picked Denver too).

Still, I'm convinced the Lakers will beat the Magic and it won't go seven   There are two main reasons for this:

1)  Although the Magic beat the Lakers in both meetings this year, I don't think either Orlando or LA is the same team.  In both games, Derek Fisher played more than 82 minutes (Jordan Farmar was injured, and Shannon Brown wasn't on the team yet).  Orlando took advantage of this, especially point guard Jameer Nelson, who led the Magic in scoring by averaging 27.5 points per game.  Nelson hasn't played in four months because of a shoulder injury, and isn't likely to play in the Finals (he says he wants to play, but I don't think they'll let him).

The Lakers have always had trouble with quick point guards. It surfaced in the Houston series with Aaron Brooks, and it surfaced again in those two games against Nelson.  Rafer Alston, whom the Magic picked up to replace Nelson, is good--but not great.  Now, the Magic is missing Nelson--and the Lakers have both Farmar and Brown to help Fisher.  This is a huge development in this series.

2)  Orlando beat both Boston and Cleveland, but neither of those teams had the length that the Lakers have.  Both the Celtics and Cavs play aggressive defense, which features double-teaming the pick and roll.  As soon as they double-teamed, the Magic would whip the ball to an open shooter, who would then bury a three-pointer. 

That won't work as well against the Lakers.  LA doesn't double team, as much as they use a "help" defender who leaves his man to assistthe nearest teammate.  When they do that, Orlando will try to exploit the help.  But the Lakers have Trevor Ariza, Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol.  They can get to the shooters quicker, and use their length to close the gaps.  They also 18 fouls between Andrew Bynum, Gasol, and Odom to use against Dwight Howard, which neither Boston or Cleveland had.

One additional note:  when I worked the game in Orlando this year, Brian Shaw told me that the Lakers plan was to take the ball right at Dwight Howard, hoping to get him in foul trouble.  It worked--Howard had three fouls early in the second quarter.  With the slashers that LA has--Kobe, Odom, Ariza--that plan could work again.  LeBron James did it to get Howard in foul trouble throughout the Cleveland series, and the Lakers have three times the slashers going right at Dwight.

The Lakers are coming off of their best playoff performance of the year last Friday in Denver.  I think they've figured something out.  I'll say Lakers in six, but I wouldn't be surprised if they won in even less games than that. 

 

Comments

[Lino Cantos]

I totally agree but i beleive that with the three-point shooters that Orlando has I think that all the Lakers have to do is to protect the perimeter and they will be fine. Let Dwight Howard have the series of his life but if he does not get support from his shooters he will get tired, hes a big man. Lakers in 6

[Big B]

Great analysis, John. Spot on. The one thing I think all Laker fans are anxious to see is 1) How will Andrew fair against Superman? 2) Will "Candy Man" Odom give us performances in the finals like he did the last two games? Let's hope the gummy bears kick in towards the end of the first quarter when he enters the game and the sugar hi lasts until post game interviews.

[theHoundDawg]

The Jameer Nelson issue is very interesting. If he is healthy enough to make more than a token appearance, he will still be rusty, and as we have seen with Andrew Bynum, you cannot just step into a key NBA game after not playing for three or four months. Its taken Bynum almost 20 games to get to where he is now.

Rafer Alston is a journeyman, average NBA player, but Orlando would be better off with him than giving key minutes to a much more talented but rusty star like Nelson, who is likely no more than 50% recovered.

Also, as you say, the Lakers' depth and style of defense, and in my mind especially their perimeter defense, will be key, and I have said Lakers in five.