JOG - John Ireland's BLOG

It's Over

So after eight long months of wondering, the Lakers answered all questions and are the 2009 NBA Champions.

They're going to take some time to enjoy this, especially guys like Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol, who played straight through last year's NBA Finals--then the Olympics--into this year's finals.  As a matter of fact, Kobe played more games surrounding an Olympics than any player ever, and will most likely shut down for a few weeks.

But the Lakers could have two big questions to answer in this off season, and those answers won't come easy:

--What will they do if Phil Jackson retires?  I think it's unlikely, but there's no question that it's possible.  Phil has some health issues that make it impossible to assume he's automatically coming back.  If he leaves, deciding who will replace him would be one of the biggest decisions of this decade.  The short list would include current assistants Kurt Rambis and Brian Shaw, along with former Laker and current Hornets coach, Byron Scott.  My guess?  Phil returns for one more season, and then he's done--but it's just a guess.

--If they can only afford to keep one free agent, should it be Lamar Odom or Trevor Ariza?  Before the playoffs, I think Odom was kind of an obvious answer.  But after seeing Ariza's performance in both the Western Conference Finals against Denver, and the Finals against Orlando, this decision is anything but a slam dunk.  Odom is bigger, more versatile, and a better rebounder and scorer.  But Ariza is a better defender, a better shooter, and is younger.  I would probably keep Odom, but that just me. What I thinking might happen (and I realize this could be wishful thinking) is that both Odom and Ariza will take less money to stay in LA.  Any time a player is asked to leave millions on the table, it usually doesn't work out.  But both guys say their open to it.

Other questions will arise, but for the most part, the future for the Lakers looks as bright as any team in the NBA.  The question most of the reporters at the finals was asking wasn't if the Lakers might win one more title, but how many.

Orlando Gives the Lakers a Gift

The Lakers won game four in Orlando, and will now probably win their 15th championship.  Trevor Ariza was fantastic, and I couldn't be happier for Derek Fisher, who was the hero.

But Orlando had this game, and they did several things late that proved they deserved to lose.

With :11 seconds to go, the Magic mishandled the game in almost every possible way.  Let's review:

--They were up by three, with the ball.  They decided to pass it to Dwight Howard, who at the time, was the worst free throw shooter they had on the court.  Kobe Bryant tackled Howard, who was awarded two free throws.  Howard only needed to make one and the Lakers were dead, but he missed both shots.

--The Lakers called time out and elected to inbound the ball in front of their own bench, at three-quarter court, because they were convinced Orlando was going to foul--and they thought they could maybe "run away' from the foul.

--Orlando then made their biggest mistake: they tried to press the Lakers full court, and they double teamed Kobe Bryant when he caught the ball.  Kobe immediately passed it to Trevor Ariza at half court, who then passed it to Derek Fisher.  The reason the double-team was deadly is that now the Lakers had a three-on-three on the other end. 

--Fisher then simply pulled up and buried a three to tie the game.  At the time he shot the ball, two of the Magic players (Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis) were standing inside the three-point line, guarding the other two Lakers who had gone inside.

If you've followed me over the years, you know this is my absolute pet peeve in basketball.  I will now be obnoxious and type in all caps what is so obvious, I can't believe I have to write this every year:

WHEN ONE TEAM IS AHEAD BY THREE POINTS AT THE END OF A GAME, THE ONLY THING THAT CAN HURT THEM IS A THREE-POINTER.  THERE IS NO NEED TO PLAY DEFENSE ON ANYBODY WHO ISN'T A THREE-POINT THREAT.  A TWO-POINT SHOT CAN'T TIE OR BEAT YOU, AND IT ACTUALLY GIVES YOU THE BALL BACK WITH A ONE POINT LEAD.

If I'm Orlando, I foul right away and make the Lakers shoot two free throws.  But after the game, Stan Van Gundy said he was worried that his team was so bad from the free throw line, that it might come back to bite him.  If the Lakers make their two, they could foul and Orlando could miss, allowing the Lakers a chance to win.  So, for the sake of argument, let's side with Stan.

But even if you decide not to foul, how in the world can you defend that play the way Orlando did?

By double-teaming Kobe on the inbounds play, you now have two of your defenders 70 feet away from the basket, guarding someone who isn't going to shoot from there.

Even worse, how could Howard and Lewis go inside the three-point line?  If any Lakers player crossed that line, you should leave him alone...the two-pointer can't hurt you.  

So that leaves Jameer Nelson guarding Fisher.  Again, the only thing that can hurt you is a three.  Nelson backed up and gave him space!  For what?  He has to take a three...why are you backing up? 

It was as if the Magic were making a video on how not to defend the end of a game--a stunning brain cramp that ended their title hopes.

My guess is that both teams will be polite and say all of the right things that Fisher simply made a great shot.  But he never should have had the chance.

Now, We Have a Series

I've said all along that the Magic are too good to get swept, and after game three, it turned out to be true.

Not that the Lakers didn't have their chances.  Actually, I'm surprised LA stayed as close as they did, considering the white hot shooting by Orlando.  At the end of the first half, the Magic were shooting 75% from the field--an NBA Finals record.  At one point in the first half, Orlando had made 2 of 7 three point shots, but a staggering 21 of 22 two point shots.  For the game, the Magic shot 62% overall--also an NBA Finals record.  Every Orlando starter made at least half of his shots, and their top reserve, Mikael Pietrus, made seven of 11 on his way to 18 points.

Despite all of that, the Lakers lost by just four, and were tied with a little more than two minutes to go.  LA stayed competitive because Kobe Bryant was hot in the first half, and Pau Gasol made almost every shot he took.  But there were three things that cost the Lakers this game, in no particular order of importance:

--The Lakers missed ten free throws.  Kobe missed five of his ten, which almost never happens.  In a close game, the road team almost always has to make free throws.  Look it up--it's the death of more teams in the playoffs than anything--almost without exception.

--Gasol didn't take enough shots.  He made nine of the 11 shots he took, but why did he only take 11?  In the Denver series, he averaged nine shots a game, which was too low.  But since the Lakers won that series, it never became a priority.  I don't care who it is, if any Laker has made nine of 11 shots in game, they should keep feeding him the ball.  Lamar Odom made eight of nine shots in game two, and I was asking myself the same question about him after that one.

--I don't want to minimize how well Orlando shot the ball, but any time a team shoots 75% for the first half and 62% overall, the defense is weak.  The Lakers simply can't allow those percentages--ever.  I asked Phil Jackson after the game if it was more a case of Orlando's hot shooting, or the Lakers poor defense, and he seemed to lean towards the defense.  It has to get better--a lot better--if the Lakers are going to win the title.

I'll stick with my original prediction of Lakers in six, but they have to address those three issues.

Did the Lakers win game two, or did the Magic lose it?

After game one of the Denver series, Steve Mason went on the air the next day and said:

"I think the Lakers just stole a home game."

After listening to both teams talk about game two of the finals, I think the same could be said this time around.  Think about the following:

--With under a minute to play, Hedo Turkoglu hit a shot that everybody in the building thought was a three-pointer, to give the Magic a 89-86 lead (that score even briefly appeared on the scoreboard).  But a closer look showed that Turkoglu's foot was on the line, making the shot worth only two. With :33 seconds left, Pau Gasol hit a lay-up to tie the game at 88.  Had Turkoglu's foot not been on the line, the Lakers would have had to score again, which they never did in regulation.

--Even more significant, the Magic should have won the game on the last play of regulation.  With 0.6 seconds to go, the Magic had time for one last shot.  Inexplicably, Kobe Bryant got picked, and left Courtney Lee a wide open lane to the basket.  Turkoglu threw a lob, and for reasons only Lee can understand, he missed it.  This was a one-footer, with no one guarding him.  He's made this shot  thousands of times since he was five years old.  I think he was so surprised that he was left open, he just clanked it.

"Coach did a good job of drawing up the right play," Lee said afterwards.  "I caught it, got a good look at the backboard.  I tried to get it up there as quick as possible, and the ball rolled off the rim."

"I saw an opening and just threw it up," Turkoglu said.  "It was just luck.  It would have been great for us because we played good."

Even Kobe Bryant knew the Lakers were in deep trouble.

"It was just a brilliant play," Bryant said. "It was just a very, very, smart play the he drew up.  He knew my eye was more on the shooters coming up, and just a hell of play by a hell of a coach."

'When the ball was in the air, what were you thinking...'

"s***."

I'll take it a step further:  I think it's the easiest shot any player has ever missed in an NBA Finals.  Patrick Ewing (who is now an Orlando Assistant Coach) had a lay-up years ago, but he was being guarded.  This was a gimme.

Once the game went into overtime, the Lakers re-grouped and took over.  The Magic now find themselves in an almost impossible spot.  Since the NBA went to the 2-3-2 format in 1985, this is the 13th time the home team has won the first two games.  In 11 of the previous 12, the home team went on to win the series (the lone exception since '85 was in 2006, when Dallas won the first two games at home but lost the next four straight to Miami).

In other words, Courtney Lee didn't just miss a lay-up.  He may have missed his team's only chance to win the title.

I'm sticking with my original prediction that the Lakers will win this series in six games, but after game two, it might not take that long.

2011 NBA All Star Game Coming to Staples Center

I've learned that the NBA will announce tomorrow (Sunday) that the 2011 NBA All Star game will be played at Staples Center.

This is a major acquisition for the Anschutz Entertainment Group (AEG), who will have their billion dollar hotel complex--half Ritz-Carlton and half Marriott--open for business long before the game.  It will be the second All Star game played at Staples, which last hosted the game in 2004.  But this time around, the entire LA Live complex (which had not been built in '04), is expected to host a variety of events surrounding All Star weekend.

Staples Center officials had no comment today, but AEG President Tim Leiweke, mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and NBA Commisioner David Stern will make the announcement at 4:15 PST Sunday.

The 2010 NBA All Star game will be played in Dallas, at the Cowboys' new football stadium.

Orlando has to be better than that, don't they?

"It's only one game."

That's what almost every Lakers' player and/or coach said after game one.  A game in which the Lakers led by ten at the half, 24 and the end of the third, and won by 25.  The question now is, are the Lakers that good, or is Orlando that bad?

The Magic made just 30% of their shots (29.9 to be exact), and actually shot a better percentage from the three point line (34.8) than from inside of it.  Dwight Howard was awful: one for six shooting, 12 points, three fouls and two turnovers.  The Orlando "snipers", the guys other than Howard who buried Cleveland by shooting the lights out, made 10 of 40 shots.

The Lakers, on the other hand, did almost everything right.  They outscored the Magic 56-22 in the paint, and out rebounded Orlando 55-41.  Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom made 12 of 23 shots, while Derek Fisher and Luke Walton made 8 of 11.  At one point, a frustrated Stan Van Gundy yelled to his team, "guys, we're getting our a** kicked by Luke Walton!"

Kobe Bryant picked up where he left off in Denver (he had 35 points and 10 assists in the game six clincher), by scoring 40 points, with eight assists and eight rebounds.  I think this has developed into the story of the finals.  If they can't slow him down, Kobe will win his first NBA Finals MVP, and he'll lead the Lakers to his fourth title.

The weird thing is that Kobe isn't enjoying this--at least not yet.  He is as serious as I've ever seen him, and answers most questions with a short, honest but terse, response.  He grits his teeth after key plays, and screams at his teammates to focus.  If you're a Lakers' fan, this is a very good sign.

It's almost like he's on a mission, and won't let up until it's done.  I've never seen him like this before, and I've been covering the Lakers since his rookie season.  My guess is that in game two, Orlando will double and triple team him, just to make somebody else beat them.

All that said, I expect a much more competitive game two.  The other Lakers are going to have to step up, because I don't think the Magic are going to let Kobe continue at the pace he's on (75 points and 18 assists in two games?  That's ridiculous).  I expect Orlando to shoot much better, and for Dwight Howard not to go one of six shooting.

The Lakers will win, but in a much closer game, and if they do....all the pressure moves onto the Magic to win at home in game three. 

Why the Lakers Will Win

Predicting the Lakers to beat the Magic certainly isn't going out on a limb.  When ESPN asked ten experts to pick the Finals, nine picked LA (Henry Abbott was the only one who picked Orlando, but he picked Denver too).

Still, I'm convinced the Lakers will beat the Magic and it won't go seven   There are two main reasons for this:

1)  Although the Magic beat the Lakers in both meetings this year, I don't think either Orlando or LA is the same team.  In both games, Derek Fisher played more than 82 minutes (Jordan Farmar was injured, and Shannon Brown wasn't on the team yet).  Orlando took advantage of this, especially point guard Jameer Nelson, who led the Magic in scoring by averaging 27.5 points per game.  Nelson hasn't played in four months because of a shoulder injury, and isn't likely to play in the Finals (he says he wants to play, but I don't think they'll let him).

The Lakers have always had trouble with quick point guards. It surfaced in the Houston series with Aaron Brooks, and it surfaced again in those two games against Nelson.  Rafer Alston, whom the Magic picked up to replace Nelson, is good--but not great.  Now, the Magic is missing Nelson--and the Lakers have both Farmar and Brown to help Fisher.  This is a huge development in this series.

2)  Orlando beat both Boston and Cleveland, but neither of those teams had the length that the Lakers have.  Both the Celtics and Cavs play aggressive defense, which features double-teaming the pick and roll.  As soon as they double-teamed, the Magic would whip the ball to an open shooter, who would then bury a three-pointer. 

That won't work as well against the Lakers.  LA doesn't double team, as much as they use a "help" defender who leaves his man to assistthe nearest teammate.  When they do that, Orlando will try to exploit the help.  But the Lakers have Trevor Ariza, Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol.  They can get to the shooters quicker, and use their length to close the gaps.  They also 18 fouls between Andrew Bynum, Gasol, and Odom to use against Dwight Howard, which neither Boston or Cleveland had.

One additional note:  when I worked the game in Orlando this year, Brian Shaw told me that the Lakers plan was to take the ball right at Dwight Howard, hoping to get him in foul trouble.  It worked--Howard had three fouls early in the second quarter.  With the slashers that LA has--Kobe, Odom, Ariza--that plan could work again.  LeBron James did it to get Howard in foul trouble throughout the Cleveland series, and the Lakers have three times the slashers going right at Dwight.

The Lakers are coming off of their best playoff performance of the year last Friday in Denver.  I think they've figured something out.  I'll say Lakers in six, but I wouldn't be surprised if they won in even less games than that.