Now that the playoffs have arrived, I'll be blogging on a regular basis, and promise new entries before and after every Lakers game.
To get things started, I'll try to predict all eight first round match-ups. Last year, I was a ridiculously lucky eight for eight in round one, so you know what that means: I'm due to get hammered this time and will be lucky to hit 50%. With that in mind, here goes:
#1 Lakers vs. #8 Utah
There is no way the Lakers lose this series--none. The question is how long will it take and how beat up will LA be after it's over. If the Lakers are smart, they won't mess around with the Jazz and go for the knockout early in each game. That gets the starters on the bench and minimizes the "hits" they'll take if every game is close.
Series Key: Game three. Assuming the Lakers take care of business at home, this is the game that would give the Jazz life. Take a 3-0 lead, and the Jazz (who are already infighting) will fold up and go home. I think Utah wins game three, but if they don't, they're dead.
Lakers in five.
#4 Portland vs. #5 Houston
Almost everybody I know is picking Portland to breeze through the Rockets, but Ithink this series will be close, and if Houston gets game one or two, I think the Rockets win it.
These teams played three times during the season, and Houston won twice. Brandon Roy, who I think is the most underrated player in the post season (I have him as the sixth best player, behind LeBron. Kobe, Wade, CP3, and Howard--most people don't have him top ten), will have his toughest challenge facing Ron Artest and Shane Battier. The Rockets are well-coached, and Yao should eat Joel Przybilla alive.
Having said all of that, I'm taking the Blazers in seven games. Roy is too good to lay an egg in his first post-season, and they have home court. This will be the best first round series--period.
#2 Denver vs. #7 New Orleans
If the Hornets were healthy, this could be an easy upset special--but they're not. Peja and Tyson Chandler are huge question marks, and as good as Chris Paul is, he can't win this thing with just David West and James Posey.
Denver has five guys who can score, and for once, they play defense. I think the Nuggets are a really stupid team, but that won't matter against the banged up Hornets.
Nuggets in six.
#3 San Antonio vs. #6 Dallas
Any other year, and the Spurs with home court against this Dallas team is a sweep. But the Spurs are like a walking MASH unit. Manu Ginobli is out for the playoffs, and Tim Duncan told another player I know recently that "my knees have never hurt this bad in my life."
That makes this the toughest first round series to pick--just ahead of Miami/Atlanta and Portland/Houston. Dallas is the hot team in the playoffs--they've won six of their last eight. Of the eight ESPN experts that have their picks in on ESPN.com, four are picking the Mavs and four are picking the Spurs. The guys who watch the most basketball--John Hollinger, Chad Ford, Henry Abbott, and Chris Sheridan--are all on Dallas.
I'm going the other way. I can't take Josh Howard and Dirk Nowitzki over Tim Duncan and Tony Parker--especially when San Antonio has the home court.
Spurs in six.
Now, lets go to the East...
#1 Cleveland vs. #8 Detroit
One word: sweep.
Cavs in four.
#4 Atlanta vs. #5 Miami
This is a weird series to predict. The Hawks have a better team and they have home court. The Heat have the best player (Wade) and are better coached.
If Miami had home court, I would look closer at the Heat...but the Hawks are too deep. Both of these teams beat the Lakers this year in their own buildings, and I just liked Atlanta a little better.
But I'll say this....D'Wayne Wade is going to have a monster series. He might average 40 points a game. But he doesn't have enough help...the other key Heat players are all too young.
Hawks in 7.
#2 Boston vs. #7 Chicago
Quick, without looking it up, who is the coach of the Bulls?
If you said Vinny Del Negro, you're either from Chicago or you watch too much NBA TV. The Bulls have a great rookie in Derrick Rose, but that's about it. Plus, I'm convinced that Del Negro has no idea what he's doing.
Having said that, the whole Eastern Conference caught a huge break when it was announced that Kevin Garnett might be done for the playoffs. There is no way the Celtics get out of the second round without KG. But they're good enough to win one series, and this is it.
Celtics in six (maybe seven, but Boston wins).
#3 Orlando vs. #6 Philadelphia
For some reason, nobody wants to take the Magic seriously. Jarred Diglio, who runs the board on my radio show and is a huge Celtics fan, says "they're not built for the post season."
I think completely the opposite.
The have the best center in the league in Dwight Howard, and they've surrounded him with great shooters. I watched this team beat the Lakers twice. They played the Sixers three times this year and won all three. Stan Van Gundy might win coach of the year and has them playing defense. They won 57 games...why doesn't anybody like these guys?
They are going to roll over Philly and then take out Boston if Garnett is still out.
Orlando in five.
OK....as Tony Kornheiser would say, that's the list. I've done a very stupid thing here: I didn't pick any upsets, and the post season always has upsets. I'm just feeling "chalky."
If I was going to pick an upset, here's the order I would go in:
Houston over Portland
New Orleans over Denver
Dallas over San Antonio
Miami over Atlanta
But I'm staying with the chalk. Bring on the playoffs and let's see if I can run the table two years in a row in round one.