JOG - John Ireland's BLOG

On to Round Two

A lot of Lakers' fans are talking today about how the Lakers blew another big lead on their way to winning game five against Utah.  That's significant, but it's not as big of a deal as most people think.

The Lakers have blown leads all year...since the first week of the season.  You know what?  They normally win anyway. 

I'm not trying to cover up a problem here.  I fully admit that the Lakers need to figure out a way to close games better than they have been.  But keep in mind that the team that was on the court at the end was mostly comprised of subs.  When Phil Jackson put Kobe, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and Trevor Ariza back in....they closed the game quickly.

I think by winning the series in five games, they've set themselves up for a nice rest before round two.  I think their opponent will be Houston, although I wouldn't mind seeing Portland stretch out this series and beat the Rockets up a little bit.

Some general observations:

--Lamar Odom is playing the best basketball of his career.  He's doing everything, and then some.  If he keeps that up, I don't seeing the Lakers losing to any team--even Cleveland.

--Andrew Bynum is down, but not out.  He didn't play well at all in round one, but Phil Jackson indicated after the game that Bynum will go back to the starting line-up in round two.  Lakers assistant Craig Hodges was in studio with us on Tuesday, and he made a great point:  these are really Bynum's first playoff games.  He's been on the team, but has never played real minutes.  The experience he gets in each round figures to help him down the road.

--Shannon Brown has played so well in the last three weeks, I wonder if Jordan Farmar will ever get off the bench in the post season.

--Mychal Thompson, the Lakers' color analyst on radio, insists that Portland (who is down 3-1 to Houston as I write this) will turn things around and beat the Rockets in seven games.  He's wrong.

--I don't know anything, and Phil Jackson has never said this, but I'm starting to think that if the Lakers win the title this year, Phil might step down.  He's made tons of money, he's in the Hall of Fame, and his challenge now is to get the Lakers back to the top.  Once he does that, I think he seriously considers leaving.

I'll blog again once we know the Lakers next opponent... 

Time to Close Out the Jazz

Let's start with a couple of injury notes:  two of the Lakers are suffering from bad ankles.  Trevor Ariza sprained his right ankle before game four, and was never quite right during the game.  He did practice Sunday, and is probable to play Monday night.  Luke Walton also sprained his ankle, and his is more serious than Ariza's.  I wouldn't be surprised if Walton sees very limited minutes in game five, if he plays at all.  But if you've been reading my playoff blog ("plog" as we call it), then you know I've felt all along that the Lakers would win their first round series with Utah in five games, and that's exactly what's going to happen at Staples Center on Monday night.  If the Lakers do win, both Ariza and Walton might have as long as a week to rest up before round two.

On Saturday night in Utah, the Lakers showed why they're almost impossible to defend if Kobe Bryant is "on."  If you're playing against the Lakers, and Kobe is hitting, you then have to make a choice:  let him continue to go nuts, or double and triple team him and hope somebody else can't beat you.  The Jazz decided to let Kobe do whatever he wanted, and he buried them with 38 points.  In the second half, they tried to double him and guys like Shannon Brown and Sasha Vujacic bombed away from outside.  The Jazz simply doesn't have anywhere else to turn now, and they'll be done in game five.

By the way, if you're watching the NBA playoffs, ESPN.com is providing a great statistic when they publish the box score for each game (they've been doing it for all NBA games for a few years now).  Pay attention to the "plus/minus" number for each player.  To me, it's more indicative of how good a player is than any other stat he can come up with.  It simply tells you how many points the team either scored or gave up while that player was on the floor.  So if Derek Fisher was on the floor for 28 minutes, and he had a number of +6, that means the Lakers scored six more points than the Jazz when Fisher was out there.

The biggest problem that the Lakers had in the first three games against Utah was that the gave up too many lay-ups and easy rebounds.  Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom focused on that in game four, and you can tell.  The two combined for 35 rebounds and completely controlled the game.  Odom finished +20 for game four, and Gasol finished +15.  Carlos Boozer, who appears to have a great stat line (23 points, 16 rebounds), actually finished -13 for that game.  In other words, you can pad your stats late in a game, but your plus/minus number is a true indication of how your team plays when you are in the game.

By the way, I'm one for one in playoff predictions.  The Cavs just swept the Pistons.  I have a feeling that I might finish six for eight-- I still think the Cavs, Lakers, Nuggets, Hawks, Magic, and Celtics are going to win, but now think the Blazers and Spurs will lose.  Stay tuned. 

Why I'm not worried about the Game 3 loss

Ok....as predicted, the Jazz beat the Lakers in game three.  Admittedly, the Lakers looked bad, and deserved to lose.  But here are a few reasons why the Lakers are going to win game four, and clinch the series in LA on Monday night:

--Kobe Bryant made just 5 of 24 shots.  That's not happening again.

--Andrew Bynum had five fouls in seven minutes.  That's not happening again.

--Carlos Boozer had 23 points and a career-high 22 rebounds.  If Bynum is in the game, there is no way he does that again.  And get this: even with that career game, the Lakers actually outscored the Jazz by two when Boozer was in the game.

On top of all of that, the Lakers shot 36% from the field and missed ten free throws.  As I indicated earlier, this tends to happen in the first game of a playoff series in Utah.  Guys who haven't experienced the noise, and the refs, and the increased physical play just aren't ready for it.  On Saturday, playerslike Bynum, Shannon Brown and Trevor Ariza will be more prepared because now they've gone through it.

One final note:  read all of the above numbers again, and think about the fact that the Lakers almost won the game anyway.  Had Derek Fisher forced Deron Williams left towards Pau Gasol on the game winning shot, the game probably goes overtime.

My original prediction stands:  Lakers win game four Saturday, and clinch the series Monday at Staples.

WHY I THINK UTAH WILL WIN GAME THREE

The Lakers are now up 2-0 in their round one series against the Jazz, but this doesn't feel like a sweep.  I still think the Jazz win Thursday night in Utah, and here's why:

--The Lakers still haven't figured out what to do with Deron Williams.  After 17 assists in game one, Williams had 35 points and 9 assists in game two.  Derek Fisher did force Williams into an 0 for 5 stretch in the fourth quarter, but that was just a small pocket of success.  Williams always plays better at home, and that's where he'll be on Thursday.

--The Jazz are the biggest Jekyl and Hyde team in the NBA when it comes to home vs. road games.  During the regular season, the Jazz were 33-8 at home, and 15-26 on the road.  Most people feel the reason for that is the refs let them "get away" with their physical play in Salt Lake City, more so than when the Jazz are on the road.  I think there is something to that, and that it might take the newer Lakers (Bynum, Brown, Ariza, etc) a game to get used to that.  That's why I like the Jazz in game three, and a more prepared Lakers team to win game four.  

--The Jazz have too many veteran players (Boozer, Harpring, even Williams)--plus Jerry Sloan--to get swept.

Now, here's two reasons why I could be wrong:

--Kobe has yet to take over a game in this series, he might decide to do so in game three.

--Many of the Lakers were on the team last year when the Lakers played in Utah, so the home court might not mean as much as I think it does.

I'll stick with my original prediction:  Lakers win the series in five.

Monday Observations

With the opening weekend of the playoffs in the books, some random observations about each series:

--The Lakers are ready.  The opening few minutes of game one against Utah went about as bad as it could for LA.  Kobe didn't take a shot--and made two turnovers in the first two minutes. Fisher picked up two quick fouls, while the Jazz hit their first three shots.  But when I looked up after five or six minutes, the Lakers led 17-10.  They ran that lead to 22 at halftime, and won by 13.  A lot of reports today are focusing on how the Lakers couldn't "put away" the Jazz in the second half, but I was there and never felt that Utah was in it.  Think about this, the Lakers won this game easily, and Andrew Bynum had his worst game since he returned fives games ago.  If Bynum shows up Tuesday night, the Lakers might win by a lot more than 13.

--Portland doesn't look ready--not even close--for the intensity of playoff basketball.  As I mentioned in my last blog, Houston is much better than most people think.  It's not a huge surprise that the Rockets won game one, but how they won it.  They were up by 30 at one point, in Portland.  Everybody who is expecting this big round two showdown between the Lakers and Blazers isn't paying attention.  Now that Houston has taken the home court, the Rockets are the favorites to move on to round two.

--New Orleans looks more beat up than I even thought they were.  Denver looks like a team of guys twenty years younger than New Orleans.  I picked the Nuggets to win this series, but if Tyson Chandler and some of the other bigs don't get healthy--this could be a sweep.

--Dallas might have won game one, but I still think the Spurs will give the Mavs a series--and maybe still win it.  The only thing I would worry about if I was a Spurs fan is that San Antonio isn't playing defense.  That's been Gregg Popovich's calling card throughout this decade, and it was nowhere to be found in game one.  If the scores in this series are high--in the hundreds--that means Dallas is controlliing the tempo.

--Detroit is no match for Cleveland.  That has sweep written all over it.

--I still think that Orlando beats Philadelphia, even though the Sixers took game one.  But if I knew that Andre Igoudola was going to take the last shot, how did Stan Van Gundy not know?  You don't double-team him there?  I may have overrated the Magic, but if they don't have any more coaching brain-cramps, they'll win the series.

--Atlanta surprised me with their defense.  I knew the Hawks would score, but there is no way I would have figured they could hold Miami to 64 points.  If they play defense like that, this series will be over a lot quicker than I predicted.  It's as if they've decided not to let D'Wayne Wade beat them, and they are taking their chances with everybody else.  The problem for Miami seems to be that they don't have anybody else.  Of course the problem for the Hawks is that even if they sweep the Heat, they get the Cavs next.

--Boston looks old and lost without Kevin Garnett.  But I still think they have enough to beat the Bulls--if they wake up and realize that they can't single-cover Derrick Rose.  The Bulls are young and athletic, while the Celtics look old and lazy.  But if they stop Rose--and they have to put two guys on him--the Bulls don't have enough scoring to win four games.  If this turns into a fast-paced track meet, Chicago could steal this.

I'll blog again after Lakers/Jazz game two....

Let the Playoffs Begin

Now that the playoffs have arrived, I'll be blogging on a regular basis, and promise new entries before and after every Lakers game.

To get things started, I'll try to predict all eight first round match-ups.  Last year, I was a ridiculously lucky eight for eight in round one, so you know what that means:  I'm due to get hammered this time and will be lucky to hit 50%. With that in mind, here goes:

#1 Lakers vs. #8 Utah

There is no way the Lakers lose this series--none.  The question is how long will it take and how beat up will LA be after it's over.  If the Lakers are smart, they won't mess around with the Jazz and go for the knockout early in each game.  That gets the starters on the bench and minimizes the "hits" they'll take if every game is close. 

Series Key:  Game three.  Assuming the Lakers take care of business at home, this is the game that would give the Jazz life.  Take a 3-0 lead, and the Jazz (who are already infighting) will fold up and go home.  I think Utah wins game three, but if they don't, they're dead.

Lakers in five.

#4 Portland vs. #5 Houston

Almost everybody I know is picking Portland to breeze through the Rockets, but Ithink this series will be close, and if Houston gets game one or two, I think the Rockets win it.

These teams played three times during the season, and Houston won twice.  Brandon Roy, who I think is the most underrated player in the post season (I have him as the sixth best player, behind LeBron. Kobe, Wade, CP3, and Howard--most people don't have him top ten), will have his toughest challenge facing Ron Artest and Shane Battier.  The Rockets are well-coached, and Yao should eat Joel Przybilla alive.

Having said all of that, I'm taking the Blazers in seven games.  Roy is too good to lay an egg in his first post-season, and they have home court.  This will be the best first round series--period.

#2 Denver vs. #7 New Orleans

If the Hornets were healthy, this could be an easy upset special--but they're not.  Peja and Tyson Chandler are huge question marks, and as good as Chris Paul is, he can't win this thing with just David West and James Posey.

Denver has five guys who can score, and for once, they play defense.  I think the Nuggets are a really stupid team, but that won't matter against the banged up Hornets.

Nuggets in six.

#3 San Antonio vs. #6 Dallas

Any other year, and the Spurs with home court against this Dallas team is a sweep.  But the Spurs are like a walking MASH unit.  Manu Ginobli is out for the playoffs, and Tim Duncan told another player I know recently that "my knees have never hurt this bad in my life."

That makes this the toughest first round series to pick--just ahead of Miami/Atlanta and Portland/Houston.  Dallas is the hot team in the playoffs--they've won six of their last eight.  Of the eight ESPN experts that have their picks in on ESPN.com, four are picking the Mavs and four are picking the Spurs.  The guys who watch the most basketball--John Hollinger, Chad Ford, Henry Abbott, and Chris Sheridan--are all on Dallas.

I'm going the other way.  I can't take Josh Howard and Dirk Nowitzki over Tim Duncan and Tony Parker--especially when San Antonio has the home court.

Spurs in six.

Now, lets go to the East...

#1 Cleveland vs. #8 Detroit

One word: sweep.

Cavs in four.

#4 Atlanta vs. #5 Miami

This is a weird series to predict.  The Hawks have a better team and they have home court.  The Heat have the best player (Wade) and are better coached.

If Miami had home court, I would look closer at the Heat...but the Hawks are too deep.  Both of these teams beat the Lakers this year in their own buildings, and I just liked Atlanta a little better. 

But I'll say this....D'Wayne Wade is going to have a monster series.  He might average 40 points a game.  But he doesn't have enough help...the other key Heat players are all too young.

Hawks in 7.

#2 Boston vs. #7 Chicago

Quick, without looking it up, who is the coach of the Bulls?

If you said Vinny Del Negro, you're either from Chicago or you watch too much NBA TV.  The Bulls have a great rookie in Derrick Rose, but that's about it.  Plus, I'm convinced that Del Negro has no idea what he's doing. 

Having said that, the whole Eastern Conference caught a huge break when it was announced that Kevin Garnett might be done for the playoffs.  There is no way the Celtics get out of the second round without KG.  But they're good enough to win one series, and this is it.

Celtics in six (maybe seven, but Boston wins).

#3 Orlando vs. #6 Philadelphia

For some reason, nobody wants to take the Magic seriously.  Jarred Diglio, who runs the board on my radio show and is a huge Celtics fan, says "they're not built for the post season."

I think completely the opposite. 

The have the best center in the league in Dwight Howard, and they've surrounded him with great shooters.  I watched this team beat the Lakers twice.  They played the Sixers three times this year and won all three.  Stan Van Gundy might win coach of the year and has them playing defense.  They won 57 games...why doesn't anybody like these guys?

They are going to roll over Philly and then take out Boston if Garnett is still out. 

Orlando in five.

OK....as Tony Kornheiser would say, that's the list.  I've done a very stupid thing here:  I didn't pick any upsets, and the post season always has upsets.  I'm just feeling "chalky."

If I was going to pick an upset, here's the order I would go in:

Houston over Portland

New Orleans over Denver

Dallas over San Antonio

Miami over Atlanta

But  I'm staying with the chalk. Bring on the playoffs and let's see if I can run the table two years in a row in round one.