1. Los Angeles Lakers
As Phil Jackson told us on Lakers Media Day, the 2 things required to repeat as NBA Champions are good health and good fortune. As we wait to see if Pau Gasol will be able to go on opening night, it’s clear that LA has the luxury of depth. If Gasol can’t go, Lamar Odom seamlessly steps in. This is the year that Andrew Bynum emerges as a major force (at the offensive end especially, but it would be nice to see him start taking some pride in his defense). And, although Ron Artest’s evolution to The Triangle is far from complete, his early deference to Kobe Bryant is a good thing. This Ron-Ron wants a ring more than he wants to go for 18 per game.
2. Portland Trail Blazers
Andre Miller coming off a 16p-6a per game season in Philly will join or replace Steve Blake (11p-5a) at point guard, and they will join Brandon Roy in an excellent backcourt. At this point, Roy is probably the 3rd-best SF in the league trailing only Kobe & Dwade. The X-factor is Greg Oden at center, who was wildly inconsistent in his first full year and remains a constant injury risk. LaMarcus Aldridge is a budding All-Star, and don’t forget that the Lakers have that “Rose Garden curse” to worry about.
3. San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio would be a clear-cut #2 based on talent alone, but there are 2 factors that will play a huge role. First is health. Manu Ginobili played only 41 games last year, and both he and Tim Duncan are now 32. And the other factor is that Gregg Popovich doesn’t care much about regular season wins (54 a year ago). Richard Jefferson is a huge upgrade at small forward (20ppg last year in Milwaukee), and although an injury risk, Antonio McDyess almost averaged a double-double last season in Detroit.
4. Dallas Mavericks
My dark horse in the West. Hard to imagine them beating the Lakers or the Spurs in the playoffs, but I say they post a lot of wins in the 82-game marathon. The addition of Shawn Marion gives them a lot of defense and rebounding, but Josh Howard must avoid injury. How do you not love a backcourt of Jason Kidd (closer to his last hurrah) and Jason Terry (20ppg in 08-09). Throw in Dirk Nowitzky and you’ve got a dynamic starting 5.
5. Denver Nuggets
Saw these guys twice in preseason, and there are a few notable changes from the team that went to the Western Conference finals a year ago. Dauntay Jones was signed away by Indiana (for too much money), and he gets replaced by former Bruin Aaron Afflalo, who will try to fill that “dirty dog defender” role. Linus Kleiza has returned to Europe so they lose his critical sharp-shooting skills and North Carolina’s Ty Lawson will share back-up PG duties with Anthony Carter (Lawson seems like an Aaron Brooks type). George Karl says that ultimately JR Smith will become a starter, but not sure how effective that will be. His maturity level and skills make him a better “energy guy off the bench” than an every day guy.
6. Phoenix Suns
I think Phoenix is better than most analysts. Amare Stoudamire seems to have fully recovered from his eye injury of a year ago. If he returns to elite status, the Suns will not set in the West. Father time doesn’t seem to be catching up with Steve Nash, and former Clippers coach Alvin Gentry is back to the running and gunning that have made Phoenix a marquee team the 5 years. I love Leandro Barbosa. He may never be a true PG that can run an offense like his Canadian teammate, but damn he’s a lightning quick SG off the bench.
7. New Orleans Hornets
Too bad Chris Paul, the best point guard in the league, is stuck with so little help and a cash-strapped ownership situation. Newly-acquired Emeka Okafor will give them an unspectacular double-double every night, and David West is a very consistent scorer, but Peja Stojakovich is a shadow of his former self with just 13ppg last year. My guess is 48 wins and an early playoff exit.8. Utah Jazz
I could do the popular thing here and make the Clippers my #8, and I agree that Blake Griffin is a future All-Star and that Eric Gordon can be explosive in his 2nd year. But I’m just not sold on Mike Dunleavy and Baron Davis co-existing peacefully for 82 games. Also, the health of Baron and Marcus Camby will always be question marks. So, I’m going with Utah as my 8-seed. Carlos Boozer has a chance to become a real distraction in his free agent year, but the Jazz have invested in Paul Millsap (13ppg and 9rbg last year). Deron Williams is a star, Mehmet Okur is a top shelf face-up center and they play half of their games with a monster home court advantage.
Portland Trail Blazers is the real champion, others are just normal.
Posted by: Mens Blazers | September 22, 2010 at 03:39 AM