Sony to finish the weekend 1-2 with ZOMBIELAND & MEATBALLS; Michael Moore's CAPITALISM tanks!

Sony Pictures is box office king this weekend with the top 2 spots among moviegoers. The comedy/horror pic Zombieland has opened with an exceedingly strong $8.5M on opening day, and it will likely reach $21.3M or so by Monday morning. Meanwhile, the strong-holding Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs survived the loss of many of its 3D screens, yet still scored a bountiful $3.5M on its third Friday and, with it's family matinee boost on Saturday and Sunday, it seems headed for about $16M and a solid #2 finish.

Disney's re-release of Toy Story and Toy Story 2 as a 3D double feature managed a decent $3.7M on Friday, and it will finish with an in-line-with-expectations $13.7M for the frame. Surrogates, also from Disney, will limp to a fourth-place second-weekend finish as a $2.3M Friday will translate to about $7.5M for 3 days. Ricky Gervais has launched his second consecutive box office bomb as The Invention of Lying (Warner Bros) only mustered $2.2M or so to start the 3-day. The comedy should finish #5 with approximately $6.5M for the weekend.

Drew Barrymore's directorial debut Whip It (Fox Searchlight) starring Ellen Page is a disappointment with about $1.7M on opening day and a likely $4.4M opening 3-day, but the biggest disappointment of the weekend is Michael Moore's Capitalism: A Love Story (Overture). After a $57K per theatre average on 4 screens last weekend, the picture broke to a wider 962 locations with terrible results. The "documentary" only sold an estimated $1.3M in tickets to start the weekend, and it will finish at about $3.9M for a PTA of less than $4,000. That soft opening will almost certainly make Capitalism Moore's weakest-grossing movie since 2002's Bowling for Columbine ($21.5M domestic gross).

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY & 3-DAY ESTIMATES FOR OCTOBER 2-4
1. NEW - Zombieland (Sony) - $8.5M Fri - $21.3M 3-day - $21.3M cume
2. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs (Sony) - $3.5M Fri - $15.9M 3-day - $81.6M cume
3. NEW - Toy Story/Toy Story 2 (Disney) -$3.7M Fri - $13.7M 3-day - $13.7M cume
4. Surrogates (Disney) - $2.3M Fri - $7.5M 3-day - $26.5M cume
5. NEW - The Invention of Lying (Warner Bros) - $2.2M Fri - $6.5M 3-day - $6.5M cume
6. Fame (MGM) - $1.5M Fri - $4.7M 3-day - $16.6M cume
*NEW - Whip It (Fox Searchlight) - $1.7M Fri - $4.4M 3-day - $4.4M cume
*NEW - Capitalism: A Love Story (Overture) - $1.3M Fri - $3.9M 3-day - $3.9M cume

Comments

[John Seever]

Steve i have been following your Numbers for a while i usually use that other "Source"(NF)But now i think i will use you as my Main as your Accuracy and Analysis is Better.Thanks For Posting them.

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you are so obvious like glen beck, fox news etc...

[John Seever]

To the poster above were you talking to me? if so Explain Your Point.

[Cara]

Capitalism set a 2009 record for per-theater ticket sales last weekend. It went wide on Friday, and both the Hollywood Reporter and The Wrap indicate it did $1.5 million (not $1.3 million) for the night. I read somewhere that it is "on pace for a $5- $5.5 million weekend.

[sb]

From the Los Angeles Times, the same paper Steve Mason and I read nearly every day:

"Also faring extremely well this weekend was Michael Moore, whose new movie "Capitalism" set a 2009 record for per-theater ticket sales in limited release." (9/28/09)

Steve, you and John have been my favorite sports talk hosts for a long while now. Both of you are funny,informative, engaging... a blast to listen to.

You are not a demagogue, no matter how hard you try.

[Kyle]

He used to post his movie columns on Breitbart's website Big Hollywood (an extreme right wing website), so that would indicate Steve is a conservative. But to his credit he once posted a column that was positive about Obama. That caused the readership to flip out. He posted for a while after that but seems to have given up there. So, I'd say he seems to be a conservative, but at least he isn't a right wing nut job!

[Steve Mason]

FYI - I am a liberal. I have worked for Clinton, Gore, Kerry and Obama. I've always been a liberal except for a brief time I was a member of the Young Republicans at Bowling Green State University.

I am a passionate supporter of health care reform, although I wish there was a public option ultimately included (I actually support single payer). I voted for Obama (obviously) and will work for him again in 2 years.

I am not a fan of Michael Moore. To me, he is a hypocrite. A guy who's made millions of dollars railing against capitalism? I am a fan of capitalism, and it is what has made this country great. The problem is deregulation. Unfettered capitalism is dangerous, and I hope that Congress and POTUS will soon take up re-regulating financial markets.

As a liberal, I believe that Michael Moore actually damages progressive causes. To make an anti-capitalism movie at precisely the time that the far right is trying to paint President Obama as a socialist plays into the Rush Limbaugh/Sean Hannity/Glenn Beck storyline. Not productive.

As for the movie's performance, it finished a little stronger than I projected Friday night, but somebody is "spinning" the LA Times. The movie had a $5K PTA. SICKO's first week in wide release generated a $10K PTA. 950+ is too many screens in week 2. It just got dumped in a bunch of commercial multiplexes, and it will come and go quickly instead of being given a chance to build in a more traditional platform release.

I still believe that CAPITALISM will be Moore's softest movie since BOWLING FOR COLUMBINE.

P.S. I worked for Big Hollywood as a film analyst. I never wrote anything political as my views are antithetical to those of the site.

-Mase

[Jaye]

Michael Moore is an a**, and so are most liberals.
You cannot believe in this great country and be a socialist like Obama and Moore.

[Kyle]

Steve,

Thanks for clarifying. My apologies for assuming you were something you weren't. I agree that you never posted anything particularly political on Big Hollywood (except for that post about the owner of the Steelers and Obama which made the readers flip out!). It was just hard to imagine a non-conservative having a column on that site, so I just assumed you were of a similar mindset, even if not as extreme.

I understand where you are coming from on Michael Moore. But, with only a handful of unabashed liberal rabble rousers out there (Keith Olbermann is the only other big name I can think of, maybe Rachel Maddow too but she isn't as bombastic) to counterbalance the right wing talking heads, I think Moore does more good than harm. I wish the extremists didn't carry such clout in political debates, but in a world of 24/7 news and reality TV dominating the airwaves, we have to accept that they do.

Anyway, I really like and appreciate your box office analysis. Sorry I misjudged you!

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What I like about the movie is just the girl that gets all the action.

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