710 ESPN's "SMOG" - Steve Mason's Blog

Weekend Box Office Forecast: CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF MEATBALLS Again!

PLEASE NOTE: Slightly revised at 11:30p Friday night. A little more for Cloudy, a stronger Friday for Fame, but still short of $10M for the weekend and a little less for The Infortmant!.

Sony's Cloudy with a Chancy of Meatballs is proving to be a veritable buffet for family audiences as the 3D animation project will coast to a second consecutive weekend win. My sources tell me that Cloudy is holding up extraordinarily well with no other family fare in the market, seizing another $5.5M on to start the weekend and a possible $22M 3-day.

The Bruce Willis sci-fi vehicle Surrogates (Disney) is headed for a distant #2 after a lukewarm $5.1M opening day. The picture is targetting something in the $14.5M range. The re-tooled 2009 version of Fame doesn't appear to be the tonic that will cure what ails troubled MGM. With a $3.8M Friday, the remake will struggle to reach $9.7M, possibly falling just short of the benchmark.

Holdover The Informant! (Warner Bros) is holding strong for a likely 4th-place finish. The Steven Soderberg comedy featuring a pudgy Matt Damon sold approximately $2.2M in tickets on Friday, and it may hit $6.7M for a 10-day cume of $20.8M. Tyler Perry's I Can Do Bad All By Myself (Lionsgate) will probably round out the Top 5 with a possible $5.5M. Meanwhile, I am told that the genre pic Pandorum (Overture) will finish the frame with an underwhelming $4M or so.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY & 3-DAY ESTIMATES FOR 9/25-27
1. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs (Sony) - $5.5M Fri - $22M 3-day - $56.9M cume
2. NEW - Surrogates (Disney) - $5.1M Fri - $14.5M 3-day - $14.5M cume
3. NEW - Fame (MGM) - $3.8M Fri - $9.8M 3-day - $9.8M cume
4. The Informant! (Warner Bros) - $2.2M Fri - $6.7M 3-day - $20.8M cume
5. Tyler Perry's I Can Do Bad All By Myself (Lionsgate) - $1.65M Fri - $5.5M 3-day - $45.4M cume
* NEW - Pandorum (Overture) - $1.5M Fri - $4M 3-day - $4M cume

The Blame Game: USC loses another Pac 10 Road Opener!

I'd be lying if I didn't say that it is disappointing. I'd be lying if I didn't say that it screwed up my whole weekend. I'd be lying if I didn't say, I half expected it.

The idea that the Trojans 16-13 loss at UDub is a "shocker" is a bit laughable. This is precisely the kind of game that the perennial powerhouse Trojans lose. Let's throw out Coach Carroll's first season (6-6) in 2001 and look at the real Carroll era.

2002 - lost at Kansas St. and lost at Washington St. (conference road opener)
2003 - lost at Cal (conference road opener)
2004 - undefeated
2005 - lost to Texas in Rose Bowl
2006 - lost at Oregon St. and lost at UCLA
2007 - lost at Coliseum to Stanford and lost at Oregon
2008 - lost at Oregon St. (conference road opener)
2009 - lost at Washington (conference road opener)

In the most dominant era of USC football ever recorded, the Trojans are 3-4 in Pac 10 Conference road openers.

There's no way that USC should lose that game this weekend. I'm not going to make any excuses because there is no excuse. The Trojans have more talent. Period. But, here's what I'll say in Coach Carroll's defense (not that he needs my help).

*Aaron Corp is not Matt Barkley. That loss at Huskie Stadium puts the exclamation mark at the end of every sentence that suggests Matt Barkley should be the starter. The Corp era has come and gone. He's a great guy, and he has lots of talent, and he would be starting at most other Division 1 programs, etc.. But, he was given a chance, and under the bright lights of  big time college football game, he was awful. Corp was throwing into groups of purple shirts all day. He was picked off once, but there were multiple other bad throws where he could have easily been picked off. He didn't use his mobility to advantage. He was just completely overwhelmed.

*I'm OK with Coach Carroll not telling Aaron that he was the starter until 5 minutes before gametime. About 30 minutes before gametime, Barkley and Corp were playing catch on the sidelines. At that point, it was still possible that Barkley would get the start. I think Pete was waiting until the last possible moment to see if Matt could play. It would have been wrong to "annoint" Corp before Coach Carroll actually made the decision.

*The Trojans were without their best defensive player. Future NFL star Taylor Mayes could not play because of a sprained knee. He is a difference-maker.

*Washington is pretty good. A year ago they were winless, but that was because Jake Locker got hurt and Ty Willingham was profoundly ineffective. New coach Steve Sarkisian has excellent training (under Pete), and he's an experienced playcaller (running the same offensive system). UDub hung around with LSU for 3 quarters in their opener. I said all along that I was more afraid of going to Husky Stadium than I was of going to the Horseshoe last week. The fact that Coach Sarkisian and Defensive Coordinator Nick Holt are extremely familiar with USC personnell gave them a little edge.

*Jeremy Bates is learning. The Quarterbacks Coach and playcaller is figuring this thing out, and the Trojans are trying to keep unpolished quarterbacks (Barkley has started 2 games and Corp was making his first start) from making big mistakes (like a Pick-6).

*Mitch Mustain is a neat idea, and he had a great at Arkansas in 2006, but he played in a run-dominated offense (Darren McFadden ran for almost 1,800 yards and Felix Jones ran for almost 1,200). Mustain threw more than 20 passes only 1 time in that 2006 season and he topped 200 yards passing only once. He finished with 10 TDs with 9 INTs. Is he better than Corp? Possibly. Is he a better option than Barkley? No way.

*USC, contrary to what just about everybody is saying, is not out of the BCS picture. The Florida Gators lost at home to Ole Miss last year a week later in the season that USC's stumble Saturday, and they still climbed all the way back to #2 in the BCS and won the title game. If, and it's a big if, but if USC wins at #6 Cal in 2 weeks, they are right back in it. In the Coaches Poll, the Trojans fell to only #10. If Washington finishes the year as a 7-win bowl team, this loss won't show up as a dramatic hit in the BCS computer rankings at the end of the year.

Coach Carroll has always managed to rally his team back after unexpected losses. He has his work cut out for him starting Saturday night at the Coliseum against Washington St. followed 7 days later by a trip to Berkeley.

CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF MEATBALLS easily wins the weekend with a possible $28.5M; Tyler Perry likely to hold off Steven Soderberg's THE INFORMANT! for #2; New pics starring Jennifer Aniston & Megan Fox tank!

3D animation strikes again at America's multiplexes as the spectacularly-reviewed Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs (Sony) has scored a solid $7.7M on its opening day, and audiences will gorge to the tune of a possible $28.6M by Monday morning. Although new release The Informant! (Warner Bros) appears to have outpaced Tyler Perry's I Can Do Bad All By Myself (Lionsgate) on Friday, the Atlanta-based filmmaker's latest is the likely #2 finisher with approximately $10.8M in its second weekend for a new cume of just less than $39M. Meanwhile, Steven Soderberg's comic corporate espionage flick starring Matt Damon seems headed for third with something in the $9.25M range.

The other 2 wide releases will round out the weekend Top 5. Love Happens (Universal), sunk by dreadful reviews despite the presence of Jennifer Aniston and Aaron Eckhart, coaxed about $2.8M in ticket sales on opening day, and it will finish at about $7.8M for its opening frame. Megan Fox better make amends with Michael Bay because she has considerably less drawing power without giant robots at her side. Oscar winner Diablo Cody's Jennifer's Body (Fox) is a monumental miss targeting a meager $6.85M by Sunday night.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY & 3-DAY ESTIMATES FOR 9/18-20
1. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs (Sony) - $7.7M Fri - $28.6M 3-day - $28.6M cume
2. Tyler Perry's I Can Do Bad All By Myself (Lionsgate) - $3.11M Fri - $10.8M 3-day - $38.7M cume
3. The Informant! (Warner Bros) - $3.3M Fri - $9.25M 3-day - $9.25M cume
4. Love Happens (Universal) - $2.8M Fri - $7.8M 3-day - $7.8M cume
5. Jennifer's Body (Fox) - $2.82M Fri - $6.85M 3-day - $6.85M cume

Kim Kardashian on the Mason & Ireland Show: "Lamar Odom & Khloe not engaged yet!"

But she says she things there's a 100% chance that they will get married.
Hear the whole interview.

If Aaron Corp is the starter at UDub, how does it affect the Trojans Gameplan?

At the moment, Aaron Corp, the 3rd-year sophomore out of Orange Lutheran, is an idea in the heads of USC Trojan football fans. Aaron is a tremendous kid with huge talent. He is, easily, the Trojans quarterback with the most mobility, the most escapability and the best chance to make a big play with his feet. He was named the starter after spring practice, and he's been in the program a long time. He has a deep understanding of the offense, and he's obviously hungry to play.

Now that it looks like uber freshman Matt Barkley's shoulder bruise will likely keep him from starting at Seattle against Steve Sarkisian's new-look Huskies, visions of a wide open offense are dancing in some Trojans fans' heads. Let's check that right here.

Corp will be making his first start. He will be facing a revved up crowd - maybe one of the loudest venues on the west coast. He played in parts of 5 games last year while Mark Sanchez was the starter, and he was 4-4 in relief of Barkley after the win over the San Jose St. was salted away in week 1. Despite spending more time in the program than Barkley, Corp is now the less-experienced of the 2 QBs.

Playcaller Jeremy Bates and Offensive Coordinator John Morton are not calling games like Old West gunslingers. Barkley didn't take big shots downfield, and I suspect, neither will Corp. Barkley threw the ball fewer than 20 times against San Jose St. and just 31 times at Columbus. If the Trojans run 35 passing plays tomorrow at Huskie Stadium, it will mean either that they lose or they're locked up in a real battle that goes to the wire.

With Joe McKnight (who is battling the flu), Stafon Johnson, Allen Bradford, CJ Gable and Marc Tyler, Corp is going to be handing the football off a lot tomorrow. If the Trojans get field position, they may take a shot or 2, but McKnight and Johnson will have more touches than USC wide receivers. And, that's the way it should be.

In my mind, the identity of this 2009-2010 Trojan team is that they run the football. Corp will be able to "check down" to FB Stanley Havili and TE Anthony McCoy, and he may get to dink a couple of passes to McKnight in the flat so he has the opportunity to create "in space." Maybe if USC wins the field position battle, Bates will call for a couple of downfield throws.

The one wrinkle that Corp gives the Trojan offense is that on a rollout, or a bootleg, or if the pocket breaks down, or off of play action, Corp can create positive yards by running the football. That's a plus. I would be surprised to see a designed quarterback draw (a la Terrelle Pryor).

I feel good about this game for the Trojans. While the team was still in Columbus, Coach Carroll started talking about Washington. Last year, the game that followed Ohio St. was in Corvallis and we all remember that Waterloo featuring the miniature Jaquiz Rodgers slicing his way up and down the field. There will be no letdown here. I don't believe that this is a trap. USC came out of Ohio St. bruised, battered and lucky to be undefeated.

But some of the pointspreads I've seen, like USC laying 20, are unrealistic. Jake Locker is a tremendous talent, Sarkisian has transformed the Husky culture, and, regardless of what the coaches say, Sark and D Coordinator Nick Holt is going to know some tendencies that they may be able to exploit.

My prediction:
TROJANS 42
HUSKIES 24

Tyler Perry does it again with "I Can Do Bad All By Myself" targeting $23.75M for opening weekend & his 3rd-best opening ever! "9" should hit $14.75M for 5 days!

Tyler Perry, the entrepreneurial Atlanta-based media mogul, has struck again. His new comedy starring Oscar nominee Taraji P. Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button) and Perry's outrageous Madea character appears headed for his all-time third-best opening. I Can Do Bad All By Myself (Lionsgate) has opened to an $8.5M Friday and seems headed for a possible $23.75M 3-day. That trails only last year's Madea Goes To Jail ($41M) and 2006's Madea's Family Reunion ($30M) on Perry's movie resume.

Checking in at #2 for the frame is the innovative animated film 9 (Focus), which opened on Wednesday. With Tim Burton as a producer, the picture scored a $3.3M Friday, and it is targeting $9.75M for 3 days and $14.2M for 5-days.

Quentin Tarantino's Inglourious Basterds (Weinstein) will finish down just 41% from last weekend. The 3-day take should be about $2M and that should translate to a $7M frame. The impecabbly-reviewed WW2 homage will push to almost $105M.

Sandra Bullock's dreadful All About Steve (Fox) has slumped to $1.9M on its second Friday (tied for 4th), but it will hang onto the #4 spot for the weekend with an estimated $6.3M for a miserable $22.3M 10-day cume. The Warner Bros debut of White Out will barely crack the Top 5. Its opening day is approximately $1.9M, but the 3-day will be a disappointing $5.5M or so.

Finally, Summit's Sorority Row misses the Top 5 altogether with about $1.8M on Friday for a meager projected $4.6M opening weekend.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON FRIDAY & 3-DAY ESTIMATES FOR SEPTEMBER 11-13
1. Tyler Perry's I Can Do Bad All By Myself (Lionsgate) - $8.6M Fri - $23.75M 3-day - $23.75M cume  
2. 9 (Focus) - $3.3M Fri - $9.75M 3-day - $14.2M cume   
3. Inglourious Basterds (Weinstein) - $2M Fri - $7M 3-day - $104.8M cume 
4. All About Steve (Fox) - $1.9M Fri - $6.3M 3-day - $22.3M cume
5. White Out (Warner Bros) - $1.9M Fri - $5.5M 3-day - $5.5M cume
*Sorority Row (Summit) - $1.8M Fri - $4.6M 3-day - $4.6M cume
*GI Joe: Rise of the Cobra (Paramount) - $675K Fri - $2.5M 3-day - $144.25M cume   

UPDATED PHOTOS from Saturday @ The Coliseum: USC stomps Spartans 56-3 as a tune-up for Ohio St.!

 

Forgettable Labor Day Weekend with Bullock's ALL ABOUT STEVE possibly edging holdovers BASTERDS & FINAL DESTINATION!

Labor Day weekend is Hollywood's traditional dumping ground for bad movies with little commercial upside. 2009 is no exception.

Sandra Bullock is coming off of her gigantic hit The Proposal ($160M domestic cume) and Bradley Cooper starred in the year's 4th-biggest movie The Hangover ($270.6M domestic cume), so Fox is hoping to get one weekend of reasonable business out of All About Steve despite some of the worst reviews of 2009. The plan has worked to some degree as the standard issue rom-com scored an estimated $3.6M in Friday ticket sales, which could translate to an $11.2M 3-day and a possible $14.2M holiday weekend. That may be enough to eek out a narrow win for the frame.

Quentin Tarantino's Inglourious Basterds (Weinstein) is holding up very well as the 25+ audience discovers the movie. The picture managed $2.9M to start the weekend (#3 for the day), and it appears to be headed for a strong second-place finish for 4 days with something close to $14M. That pushes Basterds past $94M in the US. Meanwhile, The Final Destination (Warner Bros) grabbed another $3.5M on its second Friday and seems destined for about $13.9M. (These 3 movies are essentially in a dead heat, but I'm guessing All About Steve has the best shot of coming out on top.)

Gamer (Lionsgate) is targeting $10M for the long weekend, a definite disappointment, while Mike Judge's Extract (Miramax), on fewer screens (just over 1,600), may reach a possible $5.6M by Monday night. Finally, Tranformers Revenge of the Fallen (Dreamworks/Paramount) will pass $400M some time this Labor Day weekend.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY, 3-DAY & 4-DAY ESTIMATES - SEPTEMBER 4-7
-in order of projected 4-day gross-
1. NEW - All About Steve (Fox) - $3.6M Fri - $11.2M 3-day - $14.2M 4-day - $14.2M cume
2. Inglourious Basterds (Weinstein) - $2.9M Fri - $11M 3-day - $14M 4-day - $94.1M cume
3. Final Destination 3D (Warner Bros) - $3.5M Fri - $11.5M 3-day - $13.9M 4-day - $35.1M cume
4. NEW - Gamer (Lionsgate) - $2.7M Fri -$8.2M 3-day - $10M 4-day - $10M cume
5. GI Joe: The Rise of the Cobra (Paramount) - $1.2M Fri - $4.8M 3-day - $6.2M 4-day - $145.3M cume
*Halloween 2 (Weinstein) - $1.6M Fri - $5M 3-day - $6M 4-day - $26M cume
*NEW - Extract (Miramax) - $1.4M Fri - $4.5M 3-day - $5.6M 4-day - $5.6M cume

September 1, 2001. Where it all began for Coach Carroll!

It was 103 Trojan football games ago. It was Coach Pete Carroll's first game as head coach at USC, and the opponent was San Jose St.. Carroll's first season at Troy was inauspicious. It started with a 21-10 win over the SJSU Spartans at the Coliseum, but it was followed by 4 straight losses. With QB Carson Palmer at the helm, the Trojans were able to win 5 of their next 6 regular season games before a rough 10-6 defeat at the hands of Utah in the vaunted Las Vegas Bowl.

6-6. That's how it all began. Alums and fans alike grumbled when Pete Carroll was hired and the season suggested that they might have been justified in their discontent. But little did anyone know that the groundwork was being laid for one of the most successful runs in the history of sports.

Since that break-even 2001 season, USC has an 82-9 record. That's a winning percentage over 90%!

As we get ready for another season of Trojans football, it's a good time to get some perspective. In the last few weeks, LA Times writers like TJ Simers and Chris DuFresne, bloggers from coast-to-coast and sports talk radio guys have been questioning Coach Carroll's decision to start Matt Barkley, a true freshman, at quarterback.

*The Trojans have at least 11 wins in each of the last 7 seasons.
*The Trojans have won 7 consecutive Pac 10 championships.
*The Trojans have finished in the Top 4 of the AP poll for 7 years running.
*The Trojans have been in 7 straight BCS bowl games (winning 6).

How do you question a coach that has won 79 of his last 86 games? (Those 7 losses by the way were by a combined 26 points. That's an average losing margin of just 3.7 points.) How do you question a guy who has positioned his team in the Top 25 for 91 games?

In fact, among active coaches with at least 5 years as a head coach in Division 1, Coach Carroll is the best that there is.

TOP 10 WINNING PERCENTAGES AMONG ACTIVE HEAD COACHES
-with 5 years experience-
1. Pete Carroll, USC - 88-15 - .854 winning percentage
2. Urban Meyer, Florida - 83-17 - .830 winning percentage
3. Bob Stoopes, Oklahoma - 109-24 - .820 winning percentage
4. Mark Richt, Georgia - 82-22 - .788 winning percentage
5. Bobby Bowden, Florida St. - 382-123-4 - .754 winning percentage
6. Joe Paterno, Penn St. - 383-127-3 - .750 winning percentage
7. Jim Tressell, Ohio St. - 218-76-2 - .740 winning percentage
8. Brian Kelly, Cincinnati - 159-57-2 - .734 winning percentage
9. Steve Spurrier, South Carolina - 170-62-2 - .731 winning percentage
10. Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech - 116-43 - .730 winning percentage

For all of the talk about Aaron Corp vs. Matt Barkley, neither of them has started a Division 1 college football game, so Pete has to take a flier with one of these kids. When I look at what Coach Carroll has done in the past 7 years, I have got to believe that he's picked the guy that gives him the best chance to pad his already gaudy resume.

If you trust Pete, you've gotta trust Barkley (for now).

ANALYSIS: Dodgers acquisitions of Garland & Thome are excellent fine tuning; Potential Dodgers playoff roster!

It seems like this is the busiest post deadline trading season in MLB history. The Angels score with lefty Scott Kazmir, who is having a rough year, but has been historically brilliant against the Red Sox and Yankees. Now Dodgers GM Ned Colletti makes a pair of blockbuster grabs with minutes to spare until the playoff roster deadline.

ESPN analyst Buster Olney says:

It's unlikely that Thome is going to get more than one or two starts at first base, a position he hasn't played since 2007. In the end, he might get only 15 to 20 plate appearances over the rest of the season for L.A., barring an injury to James Loney.

Joe Torre loves having a left-handed power bat on the bench. Think of Darryl Strawberry on Torre's Yankee teams. He was a hack in the field. He didn't play every day. But in the late innings, his presence made opposing managers juggle their bullpens.

Thome crushes righthanders with a .392 OBP and a .910 OPS. One of the great power hitters in the history of the game has 18 homers in 253 at bats against righties.That's a homer every 14 at bats. You think that doesn't scare right-handed relievers that the Dodgers will see in October? Beware Brad Lidge and Kyle Kendrick and Tyler Walker and Chan Ho Park for Philly. Heads-up for Cardinals Ryan Franklin and Jason Motte and Kyle McClellan and Brad Thompson and Blake Hawksworth.

Plus, late in a game, when Tony LaRussa goes to ace set-up man Kyle McClellan in the 8th inning, Joe Torre can trot out Thome and force LaRussa to consider bringing in lefty Dennis Reyes. Then LaRussa loses one of his most valuable bullpen assets for the game.

The Thome acquisition is about October. It's a chess move. This 'aint checkers. This gives Joe Torre an important piece on the chess board when he matches wits with LaRussa and Manuel and, possibly, Girardi or Francona or Scioscia.

As for Jon Garland, he's Hiroki Kuroda insurance. After a shot to the head a couple of weeks ago, who knows how Kuroda will perform. The Dodgers 4-man rotation is now, potentially, Chad Billingsley, Clayton Kershaw, Randy Wolf and Jon Garland. He's a SoCal guy, he has post-season experience (just ask the Angels) and he's pitching well right now.

In August for the D-Backs, Garland is 3-1 with 39ip with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. He's a 2-time 18-game winner (he won 14 with the Angels last year), and in the 2005 postseason he was nails. The Valencia native had a 2.25 ERA allowing just 4 earnies and 3 walks with 11K's.

I don't know how Torre will set his rotation for the playoffs, but he know has options. I think that, depending on how they are throwing at the end of the month, either Billingsley, Kershaw, Wolf or Garland could start game 1 of a post-season series.

Here's a look at how the Dodgers playoff roster may look. Some pitchers are going to miss the cut.

SP Billingsley
SP Kershaw
SP Wolf
SP Garland
RP Broxton
RP Sherrill
RP Hong Chi-Kuo
RP Belisario
RP Troncoso
2 or 3 more pitching slots - Kuroda, Weaver, Mota, Padilla and McDonald are all in play

C Martin
1B Loney
2B Hudson
SS Furcal
3B Blake
OF Ramirez
OF Kemp
OF Ethier
C Ausmus
OF Pierre
UT Belliard
UT Castro
PH Thome
If Joe goes with 11 pitchers, then Loretta will make the roster. If he goes with 12 arms, Loretta could be left off of the roster for a series.