Now that we are conveniently located at LA Live and are just a stone's throw from Chavez Ravine, I am looking forward to getting to a few more Dodger games this year. If you're a Dodger fan, there is real reason to be excited about hot summer nights at the Ravine.
I will concede that there are questions about the quality of the starting rotation, and I'll write about that as we get into the season, but this Dodger lineup is dramatically improved. First off, lemme say that I don't look at batting averages very much. They're nice, but I think that lineups succeed and fail based on OPS, which is OBP plus Slugging Percentage.
This re-tooled Dodger team starts at the top with Rafael Furcal, who seems to be healthy. He's a fragile guy, but he gets on base a lot (.369 obp last year), and although he won't match year's 1.012 OPS (a product of missing a bunch of games and being great in the ones he played), it is reasonable to expect that he'll match his career average ops of .764.
Raffy will be followed in the lineup by Orlando Hudson who had an .817 OPS last year for the D-Backs. They also get Manny Ramirez for the full season (1.031 OPS last year). Manny's career average OPS is a totally insane 1.004! Plus, a full year of Casey Blake batting either 7th or 8th with his career average OPS of .781.
The Dodgers were 13th in the National League in runs scored last year with 700. I think this lineup, as long as everybody stays healthy, could score 780-800 runs, which would put them at the top of the league with the Cubs, Phillies and Mets.
Here is how the Dodger lineup looks with last 2008 numbers.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
rafael furcal-ss - .300 ba - .369 obp - .355 slug - 1.012 ops
orlando hudson-2b - .305 ba - .367 obp - .450 slug - .817 ops
manny ramirez-lf - .332 ba - .430 obp - .601 slug - 1.031 ops
andre ethier-rf - .305 ba - .375 obp - .510 slug - .885 ops
matt kemp-cf - .290 ba - .340 obp - .459 slug - .799 ops
james loney-1b - .289 ba - .338 obp - .434 slug - .833 ops
casey blake-3b - .274 ba - .345 obp - .463 slug - .808 ops
russell martin-c - .280 ba - .385 obp - .396 slug - .781 ops
AVERAGE: .297 BA - .369 OBP - .459 SLUG - .871 OPS
Despite all the talk about San Francisco, and the rotation of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Randy Johnson, Jonathan Sanchez and Barry Zito, the Giants lineup is awful. They've added a well-past-his-expiration-date Edgard Renteria and the kids at the bottom of the lineup are works-in-progress. SF and the Padres will battle for fewest runs scored in the NL this season.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
fred lewis-lf - .286 ba - .359 obp - .434 slug - .791 ops
edgar renteria-ss - .270 ba - .317 obp - .382 slug - .699 ops
randy winn-rf - .306 ba - .363 obp - .426 slug - .789 ops
bengie molina-c - .292 ba - .322 obp - .445 slug - .767 ops
aaron rowand-cf - .271 ba - .339 obp - .410 slug - .749 ops
pablo sandoval-3b - .303 ba - .342 obp - .445 slug - .787 ops
travis ishikawa-1b - .260 ba - .350 obp - .453 slug - .803 ops
emmanuel burriss-2b - .283 ba - .357 obp - .329 slug - .686 ops
AVERAGE: .284 BA - .344 OBP - .416 SLUG - .759 OPS
If the Dodgers fail to win the West, I say the challenge will come from Arizona. Brandon Webb and Dan Haren are studs at the top of the rotation, and kid starter Max Scherzer could be ready for primetime, but the D-Back bullpen is a mess with Chad Qualls closing after converting only 9 of 17 saves last year. And, that team OBP is terrible at just .337.
3B Mark Reynolds is a near lock to lead the league in strikeouts after 204 last season (paging Dave Kingman), and they were 2nd in the National League in K's overall with Chris Young at 165 and 3 other starters topping 100 (Upton, Drew and Snyder).
ARIZONA D-BACKS
felipe lopez-2b - .283 ba - .343 obp - .387 slug - .730 ops
stephen drew-ss - .291 ba - .333 obp - .502 slug - .835 ops
conor jackson-lf - .300 ba - .376 obp - .446 slug - .822 ops
mark reynolds-3b - .239 ba - .320 obp - .485 slug - .778 ops
justin upton-rf - .250 ba - .353 obp - .463 slug - .816 ops
chris young-cf - .248 ba - .315 obp - .443 slug - .758 ops
chad tracy-1b - .267 ba - .308 obp - .414 slug - .722 ops
chris snyder-c - .237 ba - .348 obp - .452 slug - .800 ops
AVERAGE: .264 BA - .337 OBP - .449 SLUG - .783 OPS
Yes, there are pitching questions for the Dodgers, but if they're scoring 4.5-5 runs per game on average, the regular season could be a breeze.
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