Frustrating night for the Dodgers. They exit the playoffs tonight with a 5-1 loss to the Phillies at Chavez Ravine. I am not surprised exactly. I said on the show today right off the top, "Why start Chad Billingsley?"
I love Joe Torre, and I don't think the Dodgers would have made the playoffs without him. He's a "big picture" manager. He's great at balancing a clubhouse, managing personalities, minimizing conflict and knowing when to back off. As far as "strategery" (to use George W. Bush's word) is not his biggest strength. He's good, just not the best.
So, I would have stayed with Derek Lowe to start the 6th in Game 4, I would have stayed with Hong Chi Kuo longer in that game and I would have gone to Jon Broxton earlier. The mishandling of the bullpen in Game 4 probably killed LA, but tonight, Gregg Maddux gave him their best chance to win.
Ireland kept asking, "How long a leash would you give Chad Billingsley?" I kept saying "None." As it turns out, Jimmy Rollins started the game with a homer and Chad couldn't get out of the 3rd inning. And, there was a 350 game winner who thrives in pitcher's parks like Dodger Stadium on the bench.
Now that it's over, what do the Dodgers do with Manny Ramirez. The team was transformed by Manny's bat. I think it will be damn near impossible for Frank McCourt to let Manny walk. The guy is a spectacular hitter, and he sells tickets....a lot of them. But it could be a tough contract to swallow in a couple of years.
Tom Verducci from Sport Illustrated joined us recently, and I floated my 3 years - $65M contract idea for Manny to him. He said that he's almost certain that it's 4 years or bust - even if, in that 4th year, you will be dramatically overpaying him. It could take 4 years - $85M. Does Frank McCourt have the stomach for that?
Here's what LA is currently on the hook for in 2009.
OF Andruw Jones - $15M
OF Juan Pierre - $10M
SS Angel Berroa - $5.5M
SP Jason Schmidt - $12M
SP Hiroki Kuroda - $10M
SP Brad Penny - $8.75M (or $2M buyout)
Here are the Dodger free agents.
SS Rafael Furcal (maybe get him for 2 years - $18M)
SP Derek Lowe (maybe 2 years - $18M)
2B Jeff Kent (can be bought out for $500,000)
3B Casey Blake (maybe 2 years - $14M)
UT Nomar Garciaparra
SP Gregg Maddux
Closer Takashi Saito
So the Dodgers start with a base of $61.25M in big-money contracts, and add another $10M or so for the young guys, arbitration etc.. Colletti put together the 2008 Dodgers for $118M. If the McCourts increase the payroll by a modest 10%, and that's a big if, that gives LA about $58M to work with to fill out the roster.
The 2009 team would potentially look like this:
C Russell Martin
1B James Loney
2B Blake DeWitt (I've seen enough to believe that he can be an everyday player)
SS Angel Berroa (or resign Furcal)
3B ?????
OF Andre Ethier
OF Matt Kemp
OF ?????
SP Chad Billingsley
SP Hiroki Kuroda
SP Clayton Kershaw
SP Brad Penny
SP ?????
RP Jon Broxton
Closer ?????
Manny would cost them $21.25M (best case), and that leaves them about $36M for a third baseman (resign Casey Blake), a big-time starter (resign Derek Lowe) and a closer (Brian Fuentes, Kerry Wood, Takashi Saito or stick with Broxton and chase a setup man). Meeting the number for Ramirez will make it very tough to address other needs.
How about this? Resign Casey Blake (2 year - $14M), go with a double play combo of Berroa and DeWitt, stick with Broxton as closer and chase CC Sabathia (4 years - $60M). That would give LA a $115M payroll for 2009 (adding a lot of money in future years) and still leave some money to buy out Russell Martin's arbitration years.
At some point, Ramirez will come off the rails. He'll screw up the clubhouse chemistry, or he'll quit running out ground balls, or he'll get in a snit with Torre, or he'll say he's tired or hurt or not in the mood. And, in the fourth year of that contract, he'll be 40 years old. If Ned Coletti (or Logan White) and the McCourts decide to commit big dollars to the mercurial (a nice way of saying crazy) left fielder, they're not allowed to be surprised when he becomes more trouble than he's worth.
Manny Ramirez is a great short-term play for the franchise, but it could wind up being painful in the long term.
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