710 ESPN's "SMOG" - Steve Mason's Blog

GO AHEAD AND CALL ME CRAZY: I think 70 wins may be possible for the Lakers!

I got a shout-out from Mark Heisler in today's LA Times.

At this point, only haters and Celtics fans can deny the Lakers' greatness. Around here where we know our hoop, assuming it comes dressed in purple and gold, the first radio talk show host (Steve Mason) has already said the magic word, or number, "70."

This Laker team looks spectacular. At times last night, the Purple and Gold looked like the Harlem Globetrotters and the Clippers bore a striking resemblance to the Washington Generals as the so-called "Hallway Series" turned into a Varsity versus JV slaughter 117-79.

Only 1 team has ever won 70+ regular season games and that team had Michael Jordan. The 1995-96 Bulls won 72 games and went on to win the NBA Championship sweeping a 60-win Orlando team in the Eastern Conference Finals and beating a 64-win Seattle team in the NBA Championship series.

I don't think it's outrageous to suggest that this Laker team could win 70. Their depth is unparalleled. They show signs of being ridiculously unselfish. Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum are both terrific passers. They can grind in a half court-style offense or go full tilt and score a ton in transition. They have the best coach in the history of the game and the best player in the league. 70 is possible.

We asked ESPN's Ric Bucher about this team on yesterday's Mason & Ireland show and he says that over-confidence and complacency are what LA needs to guard against. It's how they play in January with a 4-game lead in the West that will determine how close they get to 70. Laker assistant coach Jim Clemmons was also on yesterday's show, and he used the big "L word." Legacy.

At some point, does Kobe start thinking, "I've got all the pieces I need to win a championship. I have a chance to do what only one other player has ever done. Win 70+ games and the NBA title." He can officially "Be like Mike."

Here is the history of teams with 60+ wins since the magical run of the 1995-96 Bulls.

2007-08 Celtics - 66 wins [NBA Championship]
2006-07 Mavericks - 67 wins [Lost in 1st Round]
2006-07 Suns - 61 wins [Lost in Western Conference Finals]
2005-06 Pistons - 64 wins [Lost in Eastern Conference Finals]
2005-06 Spurs - 63 wins [Lost in Western Conference Finals]
2004-05 Suns - 62 wins [Lost in Western Conference Finals]
2003-04 Pacers - 61 wins [Lost in Eastern Conference Finals]
2002-03 Mavericks - 60 wins [Lost in the Western Conference Finals]
2002-03 Spurs - 60 wins [NBA Championship]
2001-02 Kings - 61 wins [Lost in Western Conference Finals]
1999-00 Lakers - 67 wins [NBA Championship]
1997-98 Jazz - 62 wins [Lost in NBA Finals]
1997-98 Lakers - 61 wins [Lost in Western Conference Finals]
1997-98 Bulls - 62 wins [NBA Championship]
1996-97 Jazz - 64 wins [Lost in NBA Finals]
1996-97 Heat - 61 wins [Lost in Eastern Conference Finals]
1996-97 Bulls - 69 wins [NBA Championship]
1995-96 Magic - 60 wins [Lost in Eastern Conference Finals]
1995-96 Bulls - 72 wins [NBA Championship]
1995-96 Sonics - 64 wins [Lost in NBA Finals]

In the last 13 years starting with 1995-96, 20 teams have won 60+ games in a season, but, since the Bulls last title in 1997-98, the team with the best NBA regular season record has only won the title 3 times.

70 wins is possible, but is it a good idea to make it a goal?

MAKING IT RAIN: Andrew Bynum celebrates his birthday innapropriately

MANNY ADVICE: Frank McCourt should not make a bad deal

I've said this on the show a few times, and I'll say it again here. Frank McCourt has an unfair rap in this town. TJ Simers from the LA Times heard Frank's appearance on our show last Wednesday, and he feels it is nothing more than double-speak. If you missed the Dodger owner, here's a link to listen to the interview.

There's something ridiculous about guys on the radio and callers arguing about how much money the Dodgers should be willing to pay Manny. I agree that not retaining Ramirez will mean a public relations disaster, but I think that Frank and the Dodgers should take the hit if it means avoiding a bad deal that will hamstring the team for 4 or 5 years.

The word is that McCourt may be willing to give Manny the highest annual salary in baseball history ($27.5M) for 2 years. If the Dodgers pony up with $55M for 2009 and 2010, that is a great offer. I suggested 4 years - $90M structured this way.

2009 - $30M
2010 - $30M (followed by a chance for Manny to opt out)
2011 - $15M
2012 - $15M

This could work. It gives Manny 2 huge salary years, and it keeps him incentivized so that he can opt out and try to sign another big contract with an American League team so that he can DH.

A COORS LITE STAR ON DAY 1: Mike Singletary goes off after 49ers loss!

One game as head coach of the San Francisco 49ers and Mike Singletary goes off. TE Vernon Davis was kicked off the field mid-game after he was hit with a 15-yard personal foul. Then, the interim head coach ripped him during yesterday's post-game press conference.

For the record, Singletary says today that Vernon isn't one of the "cancers" in the locker room. I guess that's good for Davis, but I'm not sure if he'll ever be "a Singletary guy." ESPN NFL analyst Mark Schlereth joined us on the Mason and Ireland show today, and he thinks that this behavior is a mistake for a new head coach. In the press conference, Singletary keeps saying that he would rather play a game with 10 guys and take a penalty on every play, but, as Stink points out, there is no penalty for playing with 10 guys on the field.

Head coaching and managerial meltdowns are great. They're fun to watch and goof on, but I'm not sure how effective they are. Great coaches are measured in their responses to players and games. I think a coach maintains control, by controlling his own emotions. Before the show we were "spitballing" today, and we turned Singletary's press conference into a Coors Lite commercial. When your first post-game press conference can be turned into a Coors Lite ad, where does Singletary go from here? He has essentially "jumped the shark" after his first game.

NEW BCS RATINGS: Very uphill for Trojans, but I've got a hunch about a USC/Alabama championship game!

The computers aren't the problem. It's the people.

I've railed against computers having any influence at all on the Bowl Championship Series ratings. The 6 computer rankings that form the computer average used in the BCS can be just plain dumb, but here is the order of the country's best teams based on the average of the computer polls. USC's computer poll average has risen from #10 last week to #6.

1. Texas (1.0)
2. Alabama (2.5)
3. Penn St. (2.7)
4. Oklahoma (5.3)
5. Georgia (5.7)
6. USC (6.3)
7. Oklahoma St. (8.0)
8. Boise St. (8.7)
9. Utah (8.8)
10. Texas Tech (10.5)

Of those computer polls, Jeff Sagarin has USC at #3 (Thanks Jeff!) and Anderson & Hester ranks the Trojans only at #11 (Screw you Anderson! And you too Hester!)

Then there are those people. The Harris people and the coaches. They both dropped USC after they beat Zona in Tucson.

Here's the Harris Poll. USC has fallen from #5 last week to 7th this week, with Texas Tech and Florida both crawling higher.

1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Penn St.
4. Oklahoma
5. Texas Tech
6. Florida
7. USC
8. Georgia
9. Oklahoma St.
10. Utah

And here's the Coaches Poll. The Trojans have fallen from 4th to 6th, and they now trail both Oklahoma and Texas Tech.

1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Penn St.
4. Oklahoma
5. Texas Tech
6. USC
7. Florida
8. Georgia
9. Utah
10. Oklahoma St.

The Trojans have only 5 games left, and they will not need to leave the state of California to "win out." They host winless UDub on Saturday followed by a decent 5-2 Cal team. Then they go north to face 4-4 Stanford, face suddenly respectable Notre Dame (5-2) at the Coliseum on Thanksgiving weekend and wrap it up against UCLA at the Rose Bowl. I expect them to finish 11-1.

Technically, Oregon St. controls their own destiny and can win the Pac 10 and punch its ticket to the Rose Bowl, but they will lose another conference game with Arizona St., Cal, Arizona and Oregon all left on the schedule.

How does USC get to the BCS title game? Here are the steps.

#1 - It starts with Texas Tech upsetting Texas this Saturday. Then the Red Raiders lose to either Oklahoma St. or @ Oklahoma. All of the sudden, everybody in the Big 12 has at least 1 loss. Also, Texas Tech goes to the Big 12 Championship Game over Texas and loses to Missouri.

#2 - The best chance for Alabama to lose is November 8 at LSU. Let's say they lose in Baton Rouge and then beat the winner of this weekend's Florida/Georgia game in the SEC title game.

#3 - It's hard to imagine that Penn St. will lose at 5-3 Iowa on Saturday, but there's a chance. If not, they finish with 7-2 Michigan St. at Happy Valley on November 22.

#4 - Oklahoma scares me. It would be nice if Oklahoma St. pulled off the upset in Stillwater November 29. This will keep them out of the conference title game.

If you add all this up....

Alabama - 12 -1

USC - 11-1

Texas - 11-1 (Texas Tech would go to the Big 12 Championship Game over Texas and Oklahoma)

Penn St. - 11-1

Texas Tech - 11-2 (with the loss in the Big 12 title game)

Oklahoma - 10-2

In this scenario, Alabama is a sure-thing as a 1-loss champ of the SEC. Texas will only have 1 loss, but they won't even be the winner of the Big 12. So it would come down to USC or Penn St.. I say that "the people" and "the computers" would both give the Trojans the edge.

How about an Alabama vs. USC match-up for the National Championship?

FIRST BCS RATING: USC #5, but Pac 10 weakness is their achilles heel

The Pac 10 is doing USC no favors in the first BCS ratings of 2008. Remember, the BCS ratings are comprised of 3 elements, each accounting for 1/3 of the Bowl Championship Series score.

Here's the Harris Poll
1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Penn St.
4. Oklahoma
5. USC
6. Oklahoma St.
7. Georgia
8.. Texas Tech
9. Ohio St.
10. Florida

Here's the Coaches Poll
1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Penn St.
4. USC
5. Oklahoma
6. Texas Tech
7. Florida
8. Oklahoma St.
9. Georgia
10. Ohio St.

Now, here is the order the an average of the 6 computer polls put the country's best college football teams.
1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma St.
4. Oklahoma
5. Ohio St.
6. Georgia
7. Penn St.
8. Utah
9. Boise St.
10. USC

This is where schedule strength is killing the Trojans. The reason they are #10 in the computer ratings is that the Pac 10 is awful. For USC to make the national title game, they need to run the table and for 3 of these 4 teams to lose.

Texas
October 25 - home to #6 Oklahoma St.
November 1 - @ #8 Texas Tech
November 8 - home to 3-4 Baylor
November 15 - @ #23 Kansas
November 27 - home to 2-5 Texas A&M
Big 12 Championship Game against Missouri, Kansas, Kansas St., Nebraska or Colorado

Alabama
October 25 - @ 3-4 Tennessee
November 1 - home to 4-3 Arkansas St.
November 8 - @ #13 LSU
November 15 - home to 2-5 Mississippi St.
November 29 - home to 4-3 Auburn
SEC Championship Game against Georgia, Florida or Vandy

Penn St.
October 25 - @ #9 Ohio St.
November 8 - @ 5-3 Iowa
November 15 - home to 2-5 Indiana
November 22 -  home to 6-2 Michigan St.

Oklahoma
October 25 - @ 4-3 Kansas St.
November 1 - home to 4-3 Nebraska
November 8 - @ 2-5 TexasA&M
November 22 - @ #8 Texas Tech
November 29 - @ #6 Oklahoma St.

It's even possible for all 4 of them to lose and for USC to miss the BCS title game in the event that at least 2 of these teams run the table - Oklahoma St. or Texas Tech (they play each other), Georgia or Florida.

There's a long way to go, and the priority is for USC to stay focused and finish 11-1, but they clearly don't control their own destiny.

IT'S OVER: Dodgers go quietly against Cole Hamels

Frustrating night for the Dodgers. They exit the playoffs tonight with a 5-1 loss to the Phillies at Chavez Ravine. I am not surprised exactly. I said on the show today right off the top, "Why start Chad Billingsley?"

I love Joe Torre, and I don't think the Dodgers would have made the playoffs without him. He's a "big picture" manager. He's great at balancing a clubhouse, managing personalities, minimizing conflict and knowing when to back off. As far as "strategery" (to use George W. Bush's word) is not his biggest strength. He's good, just not the best.

So, I would have stayed with Derek Lowe to start the 6th in Game 4, I would have stayed with Hong Chi Kuo longer in that game and I would have gone to Jon Broxton earlier. The mishandling of the bullpen in Game 4 probably killed LA, but tonight, Gregg Maddux gave him their best chance to win.

Ireland kept asking, "How long a leash would you give Chad Billingsley?" I kept saying "None." As it turns out, Jimmy Rollins started the game with a homer and Chad couldn't get out of the 3rd inning. And, there was a 350 game winner who thrives in pitcher's parks like Dodger Stadium on the bench.

Now that it's over, what do the Dodgers do with Manny Ramirez. The team was transformed by Manny's bat. I think it will be damn near impossible for Frank McCourt to let Manny walk. The guy is a spectacular hitter, and he sells tickets....a lot of them. But it could be a tough contract to swallow in a couple of years.

Tom Verducci from Sport Illustrated joined us recently, and I floated my 3 years - $65M contract idea for Manny to him. He said that he's almost certain that it's 4 years or bust - even if, in that 4th year, you will be dramatically overpaying him. It could take 4 years - $85M. Does Frank McCourt have the stomach for that?

Here's what LA is currently on the hook for in 2009.

OF Andruw Jones - $15M
OF Juan Pierre - $10M
SS Angel Berroa - $5.5M
SP Jason Schmidt - $12M
SP Hiroki Kuroda - $10M
SP Brad Penny - $8.75M (or $2M buyout)

Here are the Dodger free agents.

SS Rafael Furcal (maybe get him for 2 years - $18M)
SP Derek Lowe (maybe 2 years - $18M)
2B Jeff Kent (can be bought out for $500,000)
3B Casey Blake (maybe 2 years - $14M)
UT Nomar Garciaparra
SP Gregg Maddux
Closer Takashi Saito

So the Dodgers start with a base of $61.25M in big-money contracts, and add another $10M or so for the young guys, arbitration etc.. Colletti put together the 2008 Dodgers for $118M. If the McCourts increase the payroll by a modest 10%, and that's a big if, that gives LA about $58M to work with to fill out the roster.

The 2009 team would potentially look like this:

C Russell Martin
1B James Loney
2B Blake DeWitt (I've seen enough to believe that he can be an everyday player)
SS Angel Berroa (or resign Furcal)
3B ?????
OF Andre Ethier
OF Matt Kemp
OF ?????

SP Chad Billingsley
SP Hiroki Kuroda
SP Clayton Kershaw
SP Brad Penny
SP ?????
RP Jon Broxton
Closer ?????

Manny would cost them $21.25M (best case), and that leaves them about $36M for a third baseman (resign Casey Blake), a big-time starter (resign Derek Lowe) and a closer (Brian Fuentes, Kerry Wood, Takashi Saito or stick with Broxton and chase a setup man). Meeting the number for Ramirez will make it very tough to address other needs.

How about this? Resign Casey Blake (2 year - $14M), go with a double play combo of Berroa and DeWitt, stick with Broxton as closer and chase CC Sabathia (4 years - $60M). That would give LA a $115M payroll for 2009 (adding a lot of money in future years) and still leave some money to buy out Russell Martin's arbitration years.

At some point, Ramirez will come off the rails. He'll screw up the clubhouse chemistry, or he'll quit running out ground balls, or he'll get in a snit with Torre, or he'll say he's tired or hurt or not in the mood. And, in the fourth year of that contract, he'll be 40 years old. If Ned Coletti (or Logan White) and the McCourts decide to commit big dollars to the mercurial (a nice way of saying crazy) left fielder, they're not allowed to be surprised when he becomes more trouble than he's worth.

Manny Ramirez is a great short-term play for the franchise, but it could wind up being painful in the long term.

LOPINA TO START: But Washington St. may still be the worst Pac 10 team ever!

The Washington St. Cougars are bad. Real bad. The San Francisco Chronicle ran this headline on Monday – Washington St. Might Be the Worst Pac 10 Team Ever.

There is a little bit of good news for Cougars head coach Paul Wulff in his disastrous first season in Pullman. There was a chance that a walk-on, redshirt-freshman, 5th-string quarterback named Dan Wagner would start against the Trojans in Pullman on Saturday. Because QB Marshall Lobbestael tore knee ligaments in the Oregon St. game, Wagner had to play in Oregon St.’s 66-13 throttling of Washington St. on Saturday. Before he entered the game at Corvallis, his coaches told him, “Just manage the game and get out of here healthy.”

But, Kevin Lopina will be the starting quarterback this Saturday against the Trojans. He was injured in Washington St.’s only win against subdivision Portland St. and hasn’t played since. The Cougars seem excited to get him back, although he has only complred 54% of his passes for 315 yards with no tds and 5 picks. JT Levenseller, the son of receivers coach Mike Levenseller, will be the back-up quarterback and Wagner will be #3 on the depth chart.

Coach Wulff is the first WSU graduate to lead the Cougars since Phil Sarboe left after the 1949 season, but it has been a rough go. He’s only 41-years-old and trying to install a no-huddle, spread offense, but he doesn’t have great personnel. Washington St. opened the season with 39-13 loss to Oklahoma St. at home followed by Cal’s 66-3 win over the Cougars, the worst loss in the program’s history.

Overall, Washington St. is 115th out of 120 D-1 schools in total offense (112th in rushing offense and 94th in passing offense), and they are 109th in total defense. It’s hard to believe that this won’t be an absolute blowout.

PROJECTED BCS: Trojans appear to be #4

Southern Cal wasn't particularly crisp on Saturday against Arizona St.. QB Mark Sanchez played because he's a physical specimen and, short of an amputation, I'm convinced that he'll play every game this year, but he was not quite right. Three interceptions and a fumble lost will not get it done against a good team, but the Trojans did do enough to crush the Sun Devils 28-0.

Here's the deal. Arizona St. is awful with 4 straight losses. They cannot run the ball, even when healthy, Rudy Carpenter is ordinary, and, as I pointed out before the game, Dennis Erickson is playing (not starting, but playing) 10 true freshman.

Because I'm a college football junkie, I've spent some time trying to figure out what the BCS is going to say next Sunday (10/19) when it comes out for the first time. Here's the scoop.

The AP doesn't matter, and it's a good thing. Those 65 voters are just plain wrong. The AP has both Oklahoma and Florida above the Trojans, and I don't agree at all. In fact, Florida's loss, at home to Ole Miss, is far worse than USC's loss at Oregon St.. In any event, the AP has nothing to do with the BCS, so I'm not sure what the point of the poll is anyway. Why even have a poll if it has no say over who plays for the title?

Computer guy Peter Wolfe hasn't released a poll and won't until next Sunday, but I've calculated the Coaches Poll, the Harris Poll and five of the six computer polls, and here's how the BCS would go if it was released today.

Harris Poll
1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Penn St.
4. Oklahoma
5. USC
6. Florida
7. Texas Tech
8. BYU
9. Georgia
10. Oklahoma St.

Coaches Poll
1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Penn St.
4. USC
5. Texas Tech
6. Oklahoma
7. Flordida
8. BYU
9. Georgia
10. Oklahoma St.

Computer Average (5 of the 6 computer rankings used by the BCS)
1. Texas - 1.2
2. Alabama - 1.8
3. Oklahoma St. - 5.6
4. Penn St. - 6
5. USC - 8.2
6. Oklahoma - 10.6
7. Texas Tech - 12.4
8. Georgia - 13
9. Florida - 15.6
10. BYU - 20.6

Projected BCS Ratings (Average of Harris Poll, Coaches Poll and Computer Average)
1. Texas - 1.06
2. Alabama - 1.93
3. Penn St. - 4
4. USC - 5.73
5. Oklahoma - 6.86
6. Texas Tech - 8.13
7. Oklahoma St. - 8.53
8. Florida - 9.53
9. Georgia - 10.33
10. BYU - 12.2

The good news is that USC is #4, and they are right in the thick of the BCS race. The bad news is that Texas, Alabama and Penn St. have the chance to go undefeated, and if 2 of them do, they play in the title game.

CHARGERS LOSING BY A TOE: LT's turf toe has been bad news for San Diego

LT has not been LT lately. Early in the 4th quarter of San Diego's loss at Miami, LaDanian Tomlinson got a big carry on 4th and goal at the 1 with the Fins leading 17-10. He got stuffed. He just doesn't look like the league MVP anymore.

For the day, LaDanian had 12 carries for just 35 yards. Very sluggish and he told us on the Mason and Ireland show that his toe is getting better, but still hurting him. He better get a lot better fast because the hated Patriots are at Qualcomm Sunday, and San Diego cannot afford to start the season 2-4. (I did everything I could to get LT to join me in my hatred of the Pats, but he wouldn't go along with it.)