FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS: 'No Country' for Best Picture; "There will be milkshakes" for Daniel Day-Lewis; Christie over Cotillard; Oscar will be Bardem's "friendo'; Upsets for Swinton & Schnabel!

BEST PICTURE: No Country For Old Men
ANALYSIS : Although I can create scenarios in my imagination where No Country For Old Men fails here, they seem farfetched. The picture has strength in all of the Academy’s branches winning guild awards from the actors, the directors and the writers, and it has been lauded by critics, almost unanimously. As Ken Turan has pointed out in the LA Times, giving the Best Picture Oscar to George Clooney would be like Hollywood giving the award to itself as it is the only film to come from the heart of the studio system, but this is a longshot. Older Academy members may be drawn to vote for the old-fashioned Atonement and younger voters may support Juno, but it’s the year that the Coen Brothers finally get their just due.

BEST ACTOR: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
ANALYSIS: I had Jeff Garlin, the Executive Producer and co-star of Curb Your Enthusiasm on my 710 ESPN radio show yesterday, and I finally found someone “legit” to agree with me that Daniel Day-Lewis was ridiculously over the top in Blood. I love Paul Thomas Anderson, but I don’t “get” his Upton Sinclair adaptation the way a lot of people in this town do. I disagree with George Clooney. He is not Hillary in this Best Actor race. Johnny Depp is. The same man who gave the world Jack Sparrow and Edward Scissorhands has delivered a brooding yet heartfelt film version of Sweeney Todd.  He’s got a remote chance, but my guess is that Johnny will remain Oscar-less.

BEST ACTRESS: Julie Christie, Away From Her
ANALYSIS: Her inappropriate joke about forgetfulness at the SAG Awards aside, Christie is the betting favorite here, and she probably gives the most memorable performance. Older Academy voters still have the vision of her luminescent presence in Doctor Zhivago in their heads, and Away From Her provides the perfect bookend to a much-admired career. Marion Cotillard is terrific in La Vie en Rose, but she doesn’t sing (unlike previous winners Reese Witherspoon in Walk the Line and Sissy Spacek in Coal Miner’s Daughter), and that might have sealed the deal for her. It will be one or the other, but I’m putting my money on Christie.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
ANALYSIS: Almost as sure a winner as Day-Lewis in the lead character. “Call it….friendo” is a line that will be repeated years from now. and not in the same satirical way that I’m already hearing “I drink your milkshake.” He is the black heart of No Country, and it is his unshakeable yet twisted moral code that provides the backbone of this Cormac McCarthy adaptation. In other years, Hal Holbrook would have been a sure-thing. His scenes with Emile Hirsch in Into the Wild are heartbreaking, and this is the culmination of a long, successful, yet Oscar-free career. Instead, the scariest page boy haircut in history will be recognized.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
ANALYSIS: This is the most wide-open major race of the night. Cate Blanchett was the early favorite for her turn as Dylan in I’m Not There, then the momentum seemed to swing toward Amy Ryan from Gone Baby Gone. Screen legend Ruby Dee jumped into the race with her win at the SAG Awards, and her final scene with Denzel Washington in American Gangster is a gem. I’m taking a shot with Tilda. She is not a star, but delivers consistently interesting work. Her perfrmance bookends Michael Clayton in a unique way – putting herself together at the start and being dismantled by Clooney’s character in the denouement. Still, everyone except  Saoirise Ronin from Atonement is a potential winner.

BEST DIRECTOR: Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell & the Butterfly
ANALYSIS: I know, I know, this flies in the face of conventional wisdom. It’s the Coen Brothers’ year, right? The answer is yes, but they are nominated for Best Picture (along with Scott Rudin), Best Adapted Screenplay and even Best Editing (under the nom de plume of Roderick Jaynes), so they will go home with at least 1 Oscar, and they'll get the biggest one of the night. Schanbel is a true auteur. He took a book thought to be “unfilmable” and made it soar. It used to be that the Academy would recognize 1 film with both Best Picture and Best Director, but they have “spread the wealth” in 3 of the past 7 years. In 2000, Gladiator won the big prize, but Best Director went to Steven Soderbergh for Traffic. Then, Roman Polanski for The Pianist won over Rob Marshall for Chicago in 2002 and  Brokeback Mountain’s Ang Lee received the Oscar in 2005 over Paul Haggis for Best Picture winner Crash. I say that a Schabel and No Country split continues the trend Sunday night.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Diablo Cody, Juno
ANALYSIS: A fine effort, although a bit too smug for my taste. I would vote for Tony Gilroy’s sturdy character-driven legal drama Michael Clayton, and if there’s an upset, it’ll be his night.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Coen Brothers, No Country For Old Men
ANALYSIS: I’m picking the Coens narrowly over Ronald Harwood for Diving Bell & the Butterfly. My thinking is that Diving Bell is Schnabel’s movie.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Roger Deakins, No Country For Old Men
ANALYSIS: His double nomination (also recognized for The Assassination of Jesse James) won’t hurt him here. My guess is that he’ll edge Janusz Kaminski for Diving Bell and Robert Elswit for There Will Be Blood.

BEST EDITING: Christopher Rouse, The Bourne Ultimatum
ANALYSIS: Winner of the cinematographers guild award and a chance to recognize a popular big budget blockbuster.

BEST ANIMATED FILM: Ratatouille

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: No End in Sight

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: The Counterfeiters

BEST ART DIRECTION: Dante Ferretti and Francesca Lo Schiavo, Sweeney Todd

BEST COSTUMES: Colleen Atwood, Sweeney Todd

BEST MAKEUP: La Vie En Rose

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Dario Marionelli, Atonement

BEST ORIGINAL SONG: “Falling Slowly,” Once

BEST SOUND EDITING: Transformers

BEST SOUND MIXING: Transformers

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Transformers

BEST ANIMATED SHORT: I Met the Walrus

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT: Freeheld

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: Tanghi Argentini

Comments

[patrick]

just saw no country for old men, it's unassumingly unconventional yet (thankfully) never over-the-top. the Coen bros. deserve their Oscars; well done indeed.