SATURDAY NIGHT: Sony may not have a serious Oscar contender at tomorrow night’s 80th Annual Academy Awards at the Kodak Theatre, but they still have a big winner this weekend. Vantage Point, either an homage or a knock-off of Akira Kurosawa’s Rashomon, received a nice 22% Saturday bounce from its opening day, adding another $9.76M. The Oscar telecast makes Sunday tougher-than-usual to project, but I’m calling for a 38% drop. That would give the Pete Travis-directed assassination thriller a far better than expected $23.8M weekend.
The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount), was up over 100% from
Friday, and the family fantasy film delivered a $6.18M Saturday. That
puts the $100M-budgeted franchise-wannabe on target for a $13.3M 2nd
weekend and a new cume of $44.2M by Monday morning.
Fox’s Jumper leapt to $5.66M on its 2nd Saturday, and it’ll finish #3 for the weekend with a likely $12.68M. Step Up 2 the Streets,
Disney’s low budget urban dance sequel, posted another $4.29M today,
and that should translate to a 4th-place finish with just over $10M for
the frame. The Matthew McConaughey/Kate Hudson rom-com Fool’s Gold
(Warner Bros) rounds out the Top 5 with $3.1M Saturday and an
anticipated $6.99M for the weekend, putting the tepidly-reviewed film
above the $50M mark in domestic sales.
I’ve had a tough time trying to figure out just how well U2-3D
(National Geographic) has been performing this weekend. If you scroll
down, you’ll see that last night, I projected $800,000 for Friday and
$3.36M for the weekend. I overshot the film’s performance considerably.
National
Geographic is a rookie distributor, and I’ve come to learn that they
accepted partial schedules at many of the 686 Digital 3-D locations
that opened the concert film yesterday. The majority of new playdates
for U2-3D share the screen with Hannah Montana (Disney), and in some locales, Bono and friends are only getting 1 or 2 shows per day.
As a result, U2-3D only managed $315,000 on Friday, another $400,000 today, and it will finish with about $1M for the weekend. In fact, Hannah Montana
has dramatically outpaced the older-skewing band’s effort with $810,000
Saturday and an estimated $1.73M for the 3-day. By the time Miley Cyrus
steps onto the stage at the Kodak as a presenter, her Best of Both Worlds Concert movie will have banked about $61.4M domestic.
New releases Witless Protection (Lionsgate) and Charlie Bartlett
(MGM) will finish the weekend at #12 and #13 respectively with the
Larry the Cable Guy comedy limping to about $300,000 more in ticket
sales.
In the PTA race, it appears that The Band’s Visit
(Sony Classics), a big winner at the Israeli Film Academy Awards, will
capture the crown with $126,000 or so for the weekend and about $15,750
per location. IFC Films’ The Duchess of Langeais will likely
finish #2 with a weekend PTA of approximately $10,000, followed by the
likely Oscar winner for Best Foreign Language Film The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics), which debuted with an estimated $9,000+ 3-day PTA.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Vantage Point (Sony) - $9.76M - $3,099 PTA – 17.76M cume
2. Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) - $6.18M - $1,606 PTA - $40.1M cume
3. Jumper (Fox) - $5.66M - $1,651 PTA - $53M cume
4. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) - $4.29M - $1,732 PTA - $38.9M cume
5. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros) - $3.1M - $1,008 PTA - $51.2M cume
6. Definitely Maybe (Universal) - $2.36M - $1,065 PTA - $20.5M cume
7. Welcome Home, Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) - $2.07M - $1,109 PTA - $34.6M cume
8. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $2.05M - $1.188 PTA - $129.4M cume
9. NEW - Be Kind, Rewind (New Line) - $1.66M - $2,059 PTA - $3.03M cume
10. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) - $1.34M - $960 PTA - $34.4M cume
11. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) - $1.23M - $650 PTA - $84.5M cume
12. NEW - Witless Protection (Lionsgate) - $1M - $750 - $700,000 cume
13. Hannah Montana (Disney) - $810,000 - $1,321 PTA - $61.4M cume
14. 27 Dresses (Fox) - $790,000 - $578 - $72.7M cume
15. NEW - Charlie Bartlett (MGM) - $780,000 - $695 PTA - $1.41M cume
*U2-3D (National Geographic) - $400,000 - $583- $4.59M cume
*In Bruges (Focus) - $365,000 - $2,239 PTA - $2.57M cume
*The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) - $58,000 - $7,250 PTA - $354,000 cume
*George A. Romero's Diary of the Dead (Weinstein Company/MGM) $47,000 - $979 PTA - $408,000 cume
*NEW - The Signal (Magnolia) - $45,000 - $281 PTA - $79,000 cume
*NEW - The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) - $24,000 - $4,000 PTA - $38,000
*NEW - Cover (Independent) - $14,000 - $1,000 PTA - $24,000 cume
*NEW - The Duchess of Langeais (IFC Films) - $8,600 - $4,300 PTA - $14,400 cume
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Vantage Point (Sony) - $23.81M - $7,562 PTA - $23.8M cume
2. Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) - $13.32M - $3,463 PTA -$44.2M cume
3. Jumper (Fox) - $12.68M - $3,700 PTA - $56.2M cume
4. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) - $10.24M - $4,130 PTA - $41.8M cume
5. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros) - $6.99M - $2,276 PTA - $53.1M cume
6. Definitely Maybe (Universal) - $5.5M - $2,480 PTA - $22.1M cume
7. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $4.56M - $2,645 PTA - $130.8M cume
8. Welcome Home, Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) - $4.42M - $2,363 PTA - $35.9M cume
9. NEW - Be Kind, Rewind (New Line) - $4.08M - $5,058 PTA - $4.08M cume
10. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) - $3.03M - $2,162 PTA - $35.4M cume
11. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) - $2.69M - $1,419 PTA - $85.2M cume
12. NEW - Witless Protection (Lionsgate) - $2.29M - $1,718 PTA - $2.29M cume
13. NEW - Charlie Bartlett (MGM) - $1.88M - $1,678 PTA - $1.88M cume
14. 27 Dresses (Fox) - $1.81M - $1,325 PTA - $73.2M cume
15. Hannah Montana (Disney) - $1.73M - $2,836 PTA - $62M cume
*U2-3D (National Geographic) - $1.01M - $1,485- $4.89M cume
*In Bruges (Focus) - $830,000 - $5,092 PTA - $2.8M cume
*The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) - $126,000 - $15,750 PTA - $397,000 cume
*George A. Romero's Diary of the Dead (Weinstein Company/MGM) $110,000 - $2,292 PTA - $440,000 cume
*NEW - The Signal (Magnolia) - $108,000 - $675 PTA - $108,000
*NEW - The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) - $55,000 - $9,167 PTA - $55,000 cume
*NEW - Cover (Independent) - $33, 000 - $2,357 PTA - $33,000 cume
*NEW - The Duchess of Langeais (IFC Films) - $20,000 - $10,000 PTA - $20,000 cume
FRIDAY NIGHT: Critics have been generally unkind to Vantage Point, the Pete Travis-directed film, with many, describing it as an Akira Kurosawa Rashomon ripoff, but that hasn’t kept moviegoers away. With an all-star cast, including Oscar winners William Hurt and Forest Whitaker, Matthew Fox from TV’s Lost, and former Academy Award nominees Dennis Quaid and Sigourney Weaver, this assassination thriller has exceeded industry expectations with a powerful $7.5M opening day, and it is headed for an estimated $22.4M opening weekend.
Vantage Point has overcome soft industry tracking (I forecasted just $16M in my Weekend Tracking column) and taken advantage of a weekend with no serious competition to absolutely swamp the field. In fact, the 2nd place movie during Oscar weekend will likely be holdover The Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) with an estimated $13M. That’s almost a full $10M behind the weekend’s #1 movie.
Fox’s Jumper added $3.9M on Friday compared to Spiderwick’s $3.1M, but the Doug Liman sci-fi action flick will finish 3rd for the 3-day with $12.2M or so. That’s off 55% from opening weekend, but the Hayden Christensen vehicle will wrap up the weekend with $55.7M.
Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) danced to another $2.9M on Friday, and it will finish the weekend at #4 with a likely $8.2M. Fool’s Gold (Warner Bros) delivered another $2.1M to kick off the frame, and it will stay in the Top 5 with a probable $6.4M and a new cume of $52.5M by Monday morning.
Beyond Vantage Point, the most successful new wide release is Be Kind, Rewind (New Line), the latest cinematic adventure from Academy Award winner Michel Gondry. The Jack Black-Mos Def surrealist comedy scored a nifty $1,485 Friday PTA for a $1.2M opening day. I’m projecting $3.65M for the 3-day or $4,517 per location.
As expected, Witless Protection (Lionsgate) and Charlie Bartlett (MGM) are both unmitigated disasters. Witless managed $700,000 on Friday, and it’ll finish the weekend with a meager $2M. The well-reviewed Charlie deserves better, but could only muster $600,000 on opening day, and it’ll crawl to just $1.8M for the frame.
U2-3D (National Geographic) has expanded to 686 locations with some success. The 3D concert film racked up $800,000 in Friday ticket sales, and this spectacular movie-going experience will finish the weekend in the Top 10 with an estimated $3.36M. Originally, I felt a $10,000-$12,000 PTA was possible, but, as it turns out, U2-3D is sharing many of those screens with Disney’s Hannah Montana. That will keep the Per Theatre in the $4,000-$5,000 range.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Vantage Point (Sony) - $7.5M - $2,382 PTA - 7.5M cume
2. Jumper (Fox) - $3.9M - $1,137 PTA - $47.4M cume
3. Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) - $3.1M - $806 PTA -$34M cume
4. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) - $2.9M - $1,169 PTA - $34.5M cume
5. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros) - $2.1M - $683 PTA - $48.2M cume
6. Definitely Maybe (Universal) - $1.7M - $766 PTA - $18.2M cume
7. NEW - Be Kind, Rewind (New Line) - $1.2M - $1,485 PTA - $1.2M cume
8. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $1.1M - $637 PTA - $127.3M cume
9. Welcome Home, Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) - $1M - $534 PTA - $32.5M cume
10. U2-3D (National Geographic) - $800,000 - $1,166 - $4.6M cume
11. NEW - Witless Protection (Lionsgate) - $700,000 - $525 - $700,000 cume
12. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) - $675,000 - $481 PTA - $33.1M cume
13. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) - $650,000 - $342 PTA - $83.2M cume
14. NEW - Charlie Bartlett (MGM) - $600,000 - $535 PTA - $600,000 cume
15. 27 Dresses (Fox) - $490,000 - $358 - $71.9M cume
*Hannah Montana (Disney) - $300,000 - $489 PTA - $60.6M cume
*In Bruge (Focus) - $175,000 - $1,075 PTA - $2.1M cume
*NEW - The Signal (Magnolia) - $33,600 - $210 PTA - $33,600 cume
*George A. Romero's Diary of the Dead (Weinstein Company/MGM) $31,000 - $646 PTA - $360,000 cume
*The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) - $25,000 - $3,125 PTA - $296,000 cume
*NEW - The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) - $14,000 - $2,333 PTA - $14,000
*NEW - Cover (Independent) - $9,800 - $700 PTA - $9,800 cume
*NEW - The Duchess of Langeais (IFC Films) - $5,800 - $2,900 PTA - $5,800 cume
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Vantage Point (Sony) - $22.4M - $7,113 PTA - $22.4M cume
2. Spiderwick Chronicles (Paramount) - $13M - $3,379 PTA -$43.9M cume
3. Jumper (Fox) - $12.2M - $3,557 PTA - $55.7M cume
4. Step Up 2 the Streets (Disney) - $8.2M - $3,306 PTA - $39.8M cume
5. Fool's Gold (Warner Bros) - $6.4M - $2,081 PTA - $52.5M cume
6. Definitely Maybe (Universal) - $5M - $2,252 PTA - $21.5M cume
7. Juno (Fox Searchlight) - $4.07M - $2,357 PTA - $130.3M cume
8. NEW - Be Kind, Rewind (New Line) - $3.65M - $4,517 PTA - $3.65M cume
9. Welcome Home, Roscoe Jenkins (Universal) - $3.6M - $1,922 PTA - $35.1M cume
10. U2-3D (National Geographic) - $3.36M - $4,898 - $7.2M cume
11. There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage) - $2.63M - $1,878 PTA - $35M cume
12. The Bucket List (Warner Bros) - $2.37M - $1,247 PTA - $84.9M cume
13. NEW - Witless Protection (Lionsgate) - $2M - $1,500 PTA - $2M cume
14. NEW - Charlie Bartlett (MGM) - $1.8M - $1,604 PTA - $1.8M cume
15. 27 Dresses (Fox) - $1.71M - $1,255 PTA - $73.1M cume
*Hannah Montana (Disney) - $1.26M - $2,055 PTA - $61.6M cume
*In Bruge (Focus) - $665,000 - $4,080 PTA - $2.6M cume
*The Band's Visit (Sony Classics) - $112,000 - $14,000 PTA - $383,000 cume
*NEW - The Signal (Magnolia) - $100,000 - $625 PTA - $100,000
*George A. Romero's Diary of the Dead (Weinstein Company/MGM) $95,000 - $1,979 PTA - $425,000 cume
*NEW - The Counterfeiters (Sony Classics) - $54,600 - $9,100 PTA - $54,600 cume
*NEW - Cover (Independent) - $29,000 - $2,071 PTA - $29,000 cume
*NEW - The Duchess of Langeais (IFC Films) - $21,000 - $10,500 PTA - $21,000 cume
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