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WEEKEND BOX OFFICE: Jigsaw traps moviegoers again! SAW IV #1 w/$31.3M; Carell's DAN IN REAL LIFE #2 w/just over $12M

SATURDAY NIGHT: The Saw franchise is alive and well, but Jigsaw may be showing his age. Saw IV (Lionsgate), which opened with a monstrous $14M+ on Friday, appears to have taken a bigger than expected Saturday drop. Whereas 2006's Saw III fell about 20% from its opening day, the newest gruesome installment tailed off by 30% day-over-day. The Saturday haul is still a healthy $10.01M, but it's now unlikely that Saw IV will challenge the franchise's best-ever opening weekend ($33.6M for #3).

The other new wide release, Dan in Real Life (Buena Vista), starring Golden Globe winner Steve Carell and Oscar winner Juliette Binoche, has proved to be a nice change of pace for moviegoers fatigued by depressing fare. Dan added $4.7M on Saturday, a nice 14% bump, and I now anticipate that Peter Hedges' follow-up to Pieces of April may reach $12.07M for a very solid opening weekend.

It's very close for 3rd, but Sony vampire holdover 30 Days of Night should edge Disney's long-running The Game Plan, despite a likely Sunday matinee increase. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) will round out the weekend top 5, climbing past $47M domestic.

In the PTA race, Sidney Lumet's Before the Devil Knows You're Dead (Thinkfilm) will win easily with a 3-day PTA of $35,774 culled from 2 New York City locations. After Dark's Wristcutter's: A Love Story is a distant 2nd at $10,480.

Meanwhile, new release Jimmy Carter: Man From Plains (Sony Classics) has met with low approval ratings. On just 7 screens, the Jonathan Demme-directed doc managed only $1,534, which bodes poorly for both expansion and Oscar contention.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Saw IV (Lionsgate) - $10.01M - $3,145 PTA - $24.3M cume
2. NEW – Dan in Real Life (Buena Vista)) - $4.7M - $2,448 PTA - $8.8M cume
3. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) - $2.87M - $860 PTA - $75.5M cume
4. Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) - $2.59M - $1,366 PTA - $45.7M cume
5. 30 Days of Night (Sony) - $2.55M - $895 PTA - $25.4M cume
6. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros) - $2.18M - $845 PTA - $27.4M cume
7. Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) - $1.61M - $945 PTA - $10.2M cume
8. The Comebacks (Fox Atomic) - $1.47M - $525 PTA - $9.2M cume
9. We Own the Night (Sony) - $1.41M- $587 PTA - $24.1M cume
10. Tim Burton’s The Nightmare Before Christmas (Buena Vista) - $1.39M - $2,447 PTA - $68.1M cume
11. Rendition (New Line) - $1.23M - $548 PTA - $8.8M cume
12. The Heartbreak Kid (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $691,200 - $345 PTA - $34.6M cume
13. Across the Universe (Sony) - $660,000 - $685 PTA - $18.8M cume
14. Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal) - $648,000 - $406 PTA - $13.5M cume
15. Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) - $638,450 - $915 PTA - $5.5M cume
*Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) - $612,500 - $931 PTA - $8.4M cume
*NEW – Bella (Roadside Attractions) - $466,200 - $2,825 PTA - $886,200 cume
*Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) - $350,000 - $1,182 PTA - $1M cume
*Things We Lost in the Fire (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $288,200 - $252 PTA - $2.6M cume
*Lust Caution (Focus) - $201,500 - $1,409 PTA - $2.6M cume
*The Assassination of Jesse James… (Warner Bros) - $162,500 - $553 PTA - $2.7M cume
*Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $129,750 - $530 PTA - $318.6M cume
*Control (MGM/Weinstein) - $28,898 - $1,927 PTA - $171,195 cume
*NEW – Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead (Thinkfilm) - $28,627 - $14,314 PTA - $48,646 cume
*NEW – Mr. Untouchable (Magnolia) - $18,898 - $756 PTA - $35,923 cume
*Wristcutters: A Love Story (After Dark) - $16,250 - $4,063 PTA - $90,363 cume
*NEW – Music Within (MGM) - $13,295 - $782 PTA - $36,217 cume
*Reservation Road (Focus) - $11,797 - $302 PTA - $74,177 cume
*NEW - Jimmy Carter: Man From Plains (Sony Classics) - $4,644 - $663 PTA - $7,392 cume
*NEW – Rails & Ties (Warner Bros) - $3,978 - $796 PTA - $7,186 cume
*NEW – Lynch (Independent) - $2,716 - $2,716 PTA - $5,734 cume
*Finishing the Game (IFC Films) - $3,609 - $722 PTA - $43,980 cume
*NEW – Slipstream (Strand) - $2,404 - $401 PTA - $4,198 cume
*NEW – How to Cook Your Life (IDP Films) - $2,357 - $589 PTA - $4,389 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Saw IV (Lionsgate) - $31.3M - $9,839 PTA - $31.3M cume
2. NEW – Dan in Real Life (Buena Vista) - $12.07M - $7,386 PTA - $12.07M cume
3. 30 Days of Night (Sony) - $6.39M - $2,723 PTA - $27M cume
4. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) - $6.21M - $1,861 PTA - $77M cume
5. Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married? (Lionsgate) - $5.64M - $2,975 PTA - $47.2M cume
6. Michael Clayton (Warner Bros) - $5.13M - $1,986 PTA - $28.8M cume
7. Gone Baby Gone (Miramax) - $4M - $2,339 PTA - $11.4M cume
8. The Comebacks (Fox Atomic) - $3.46M - $1,231 PTA - $10M cume
9. Tim Burton’s The Nightmare Before Christmas (Buena Vista) - $3.41M - $6,054 PTA - $69.1M cume
10. We Own the Night (Sony) - $3.37M- $1,403 PTA - $25M cume
11. Rendition (New Line) - $3.07M - $1,367 PTA - $9.7M cume
12. The Heartbreak Kid (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $1.63M - $818 PTA - $35M cume
13. Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) - $1.61M – $2,319 PTA - $5.98M cume
14. Across the Universe (Sony) - $1.6M - $1,666 PTA - $19.2M cume
15. Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal) - $1.52M - $955 PTA - $13.9M cume
*Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) - $1.5M - $2,290 PTA - $8.8M cume
*NEW – Bella (Roadside Attractions) - $1.22M - $7,405 PTA - $1.22M cume
*Lars & the Real Girl (MGM) - $871,500 - $2,944 PTA - $1.2M cume
*Things We Lost in the Fire (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $695,530 - $609 PTA - $2.8M cume
*Lust Caution (Focus) - $462,475 - $3,234 PTA - $2.8M cume
*The Assassination of Jesse James… (Warner Bros) - $406,250 - $1,382 PTA - $2.8M cume
*Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $299,468 - $1,222 PTA - $318.727M cume
*Control (MGM/Weinstein) - $79,762 - $5,317 PTA - $192,869 cume
*NEW – Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead (Thinkfilm) - $71,548 - $35,744 PTA - $71,548 cume
*NEW – Mr. Untouchable (Magnolia) - $49,151 - $1,966 PTA - $49,151 cume
*NEW – Music Within (MGM) - $45,789 - $2,693 PTA - $45,789 cume
*Wristcutters: A Love Story (After Dark) - $41,921 - $10,480 PTA - $102,714 cume
*Reservation Road (Focus) - $30,682 - $787 PTA - $82,435 cume
*Finishing the Game (IFC Films) - $13,813 - $2,763 PTA - $46,506
*NEW - Jimmy Carter: Man From Plains (Sony Classics) - $10,736 - $1,534 PTA - $10,736 cume
*NEW – Rails & Ties (Warner Bros) - $10,169 - $2,034 PTA - $10,169 cume
*NEW – Lynch (Independent) - $7,717 - $7,717 PTA - $7,717 cume
*NEW – How to Cook Your Life (IDP Films) - $6,086 - $1,522 PTA - $6,086 cume
*NEW – Slipstream (Strand) - $5,929 - $988 PTA - $5,929 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead (Thinkfilm) – 2 locations - $14,314 PTA
2. Wristcutters: A Love Story (After Dark) – 4 locations - $4,063 PTA
3. NEW – Saw IV (Lionsgate) – 3,183 locations - $3,145 PTA
4. NEW – Bella (Roadside Attractions) – 165 locations - $2,825 PTA
5. NEW – Lynch (Independent) – 1 location - $2,716 PTA
6. Tim Burton’s The Nightmare Before Christmas (Buena Vista) – 564 locations - $2,477 PTA
7. NEW – Dan in Real Life (Buena Vista) – 1,921 locations - $2,448 PTA
8. Control (MGM/Weinstein) – 15 locations - $1,927 PTA
9. Lust, Caution (Focus) – 143 locations - $1,409 PTA
10. Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married (Lionsgate) – 1,897 locations - $1,366 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead (Thinkfilm) – 2 locations - $35,744 PTA
2. Wristcutters: A Love Story (After Dark) – 4 locations - $10,480 PTA
3. NEW – Saw IV (Lionsgate) – 3,183 locations - $9,839 PTA
4. NEW – Lynch (Independent) – 1 location - $7,717 PTA
5. NEW – Bella (Roadside Attractions) – 165 locations - $7,405 PTA
6. NEW – Dan in Real Life (Buena Vista) – 1,921 locations - $6,284 PTA
7. Tim Burton’s The Nightmare Before Christmas (Buena Vista) – 564 locations - $6,054 PTA
8. Control (MGM/Weinstein) – 15 locations - $5,317 PTA
9. Lust, Caution (Focus) – 143 locations - $3,234 PTA
10. Tyler Perry’s Why Did I Get Married (Lionsgate) – 1,897 locations - $2,975 PTA

Why NFL Quarterbacks need to keep their names short!

The Jugular: Why can't USC find it?

It'll be easy for football fans to look at USC 24-17 loss at Autzen Stadium against the Oregon Ducks and say, "If only Pete Carroll had started John David Booty." It's possible, but not likely, that the outcome would have been different.

If you look at the last 2 offensive drives for the Trojans, my gut says that Booty wouldn't have thrown the game-ending interception to Oregon's Matthew Harper, but that same gut (which is anything but golden) says that Booty wouldn't have been able to engineer the devastating 4 consecutive passes that pulled USC to within 24-17 on the prior drive.

In the final analysis, this USC team should have never been in the position to need 2 late touchdowns to tie. The Trojans could have gone for the jugular....stepped on the throats of the Ducks...forced Oregon to play from behind for 55 minutes....but that, for some reason, isn't in this team's nature.

USC is on the road, at a very tough venue, and Oregon gives you the ball on a proverbial "silver platter" deep in their own territory after Andre Crenshaw's fumble on the opening kickoff. First a personal foul pushes SC into a 3rd & 20. Then, after hitting Joe McKnight, the Trojans wind up 4th & 1 at the Duck 12.

You've got a 6'4" bull of a quarterback who is a beast on a sneak. You've got Chauncey Washington and Stafon Johnson who are both powerful downhill runners. Instead, Steve Sarkisian decides to call a running play with a freshman whose tendency is to head horizontal way too often. Huh?

Too fancy. Too clever. Overthinking. Since the departure of Norm Chow, the playcalling has never been the same. I don't understand why Sark and, before his solo stint, Kiffesian (the Sark Lane Kiffin combo), don't ask WWCD. What would Chow do? Why "whittle" that one yard when you can take a sledgehammer to the ordinary Oregon offensive line.

I know what you're saying. "Mase, it's only 1 play, and it was less than a minute into the game." But, scoring there helps to neutralize the crowd, changes, to some degree, the mindset and approach of Dickson and Belotti, and reminds every Oregon player, coach and fan that this is still "the invincible USC, and they don't lose games like this one." Instead, Dickson gets the ball and methodically moves the ball 35 yards and changes the field position dynamic, ultimately leading to an Oregon TD 1 drive later.

Would a USC TD in the first 60 seconds have changed the outcome of the game? I say that the odds are much better that the Trojans win, and that they don't need 2 late touchdowns to tie.

Is it possible for #1 and #2 to lose again this week?

I know it’s a radical idea, but I think it’s possible for the top 2 teams in the BCS to lose this week.

First off, it’s hard to say how good either of these teams are. South Florida (#2) has played a very credible schedule with wins at Auburn (5-2) and at home over West Virginia (5-1). Overall, they’re 6-0 with a win over sub-division Elon. The 5 real teams that they’ve played have a combined 18-14 record.

I love Bulls QB Matt Grothe. He’s a solid passer with over 1,100 yards through the air, but the sophomore is also a “scramblin’ fool.” Grothe has almost 350 yards on the ground with 4 TDs. Check this out.

It does, however, get much tougher from here, especially the next 3 weeks. The murderous stretch for the Bulls starts Thursdy night in Piscataway, NJ when they take on 4-2 Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights aren’t as good as 2006, with losses to Maryland and Cincinnati, but they ain’t bad. In fact, South Florida is only a 2 1/2 point favorite.

Meanwhile, Ohio St. fans are afraid of Michigan St. despite the fact that the Buckeyes are 17-point favorites. In 1998, the last time an unranked Spartans team traveled to Columbus for a game against a #1-ranked Buckeye team, they were 28-point underdogs. The Spartans came away with a shocking 28-24 upset win. Current Michigan St. Head Coach Mike Dantonio was an assistant on that Spartn staff, and he intends to use that game as inspiration. In MSU history, they are 3-13-1 against #1-ranked teams, but 2 of those 3 wins came against Ohio St..

Michigan St. has the highest scoring offense in the Pac 10 averaging 36.9 ppg, but Ohio St.’s defense is for real. They held the high-flying Purdue offense to 7 points, 272 yards in total offense and only 4 rushing yards a couple of weeks back.

On offense, the Buckeyes have a balanced attack with Chris Wells racking up 100 yards in 4 of 7 games and QB Todd Boeckman is serviceable, especially with Brian Hartline (12.3 ypc – 4 TDs) and Brian Robiskie (18.2 ypc – 6 TDs) catching the ball. The Spartans, on the other hand, get it done on the ground with TB Javon Ringer averaging 133 yards per game and 7.1 yards per carry. Ringer went for 203 with 2 TDs this past Saturday against Indiana.

I’m convinced that Ohio St. will lose at least once. They beat sub-division Youngstown St., and their other 6 wins have come against teams that are a combined 18-23. Every remaining game on the schedule is tough. They finish with 5 straight contests against teams with 5-2 records

#1 - OHIO ST.
10/20 – H Michigan St. (5-2)
10/27 - @ Penn St. (5-2)
11/3 – H Wisconsin (5-2)
11/10 – H Illinois (5-2)
11/17 - @ Michigan (5-2)

It’s not likely that both Ohio St. and South Florida will lose this week, but it’s possible….and that’s the kind of year it’s been.

SNL shreds Dane Cook & NBC's Exclusive Notre Dame broadcast deal.

A couple of great sports-related bits on Saturday Night Live this past weekend. Although I've gotta say, why is Jon Bon Jovi hosting? You've already got Foo Fighters booked as the musical guest. Do we really need Jon Bon Jovi trying to be funny.

One priceless moment was Richie Samborra trying to spit out 2 lines from the audience during Bon Jovi's monologue. It's fair to say "a mind is a terrible thing to waste." (You don't have to watch the whole kinda generic Bon Jovi song.)

Bill Simmons from Page 2 on ESPN.com recently wrote this.

“We’ve all seen these baseball playoff commercials where Dane Cook pretends to be such a big baseball fan, even though we’re not sure if he could pick Albert Pujols out of a police lineup … so this week’s host is shooting one of those the baseball commercials, except he keeps screwing up the names really badly (absolutely butchers Rivera, Papelbon, Pujols, Sabathia, etc). And the director has to keep interrupting him. And then it goes on for three minutes.”

Apparently, Bill actually spoke to Seth Myers recently pitching the sketch idea, and then Jason Sudeikis delivered the idea with a pretty dead-on impression of Cook on Saturday.

I can't make up my mind about whether or not I like Dane Cook. We met him at the ESPYs and seems like a really nice guy. I'm just not sure if he's funny.

The other great sports bit from Saturday's SNL was this fake promo ragging on Notre Dame. Unfortunately, the quality is bad because it's just a guy pointing his camera at his TV screen, but if you pay close attention, you can catch every last mean little dig on the Irish.

Saturday Night Live is wildly inconsistent, but there re still some really funny moments, and it's worth a spot on my TIVO.

The Patriots are good, but a Super Bowl Championship is anything but guaranteed.

After blowing out Dallas 48-27 at Texas Stadium yesterday, the New Englnd Patriots are 6-0. The popular sportscaster speak is that the Pats are unbeatable and a lock to win the Super Bowl. Today, I'd be willing to place a bet against New England winning the Super Bowl.

It's not that they've got any flaws. Tom Brady may, in fact, surprass Peyton Manning's single season TD record. Randy Moss appears to have become a different person. When asked about T.O. yesterday, Moss says he doesn't go in for all that "#81 vs. #81" stuff, and he's focused on his team winning games. He also used the term "lollygagging," which makes him the only person under 60 to employ that old-fashioned term (I assume he said it because he heard Bill Belicheck say it). The presence of Moss has made Wes Welker and Donte Stallworth that much better. The defense keyed by Teddy Bruschi is as good as ever, etc., etc., etc., but none of it guarantees the NFL championship.

In fact in the last 10 years, the team with the best record during the regular season has only won the Super Bowl 3 times.

2006
Best Record - San Diego 14-2
Super Bowl Winner – Indianapolis 12-4

2005
Best Record – Indianapolis 14-2
Super Bowl Winner – Pittsburgh 11-5

2004
Best Record – New England 14-2
Super Bowl Winner – New England 14-2

2003
Best Record – New England 14-2
Super Bowl Winner – New England 14-2

2002
Best Record – Green Bay, Tampa, Philly – 12-4
Super Bowl Winner – Tampa 12-4

2001
Best Record – St Louis – 14-2
Super Bowl Winner – New England –11-5

2000
Best Record – Tennessee – 13-3
Super Bowl Winner – Baltimore 12-4

1999
Best Record – Jacksonville – 14-2
Super Bowl Winner – St. Louis – 13-3

1998
Best Record – Minnesota – 15-1
Super Bowl Winner – Denver – 14-2

1997
Best Record – Green Bay, San Francisco, Kansas City – 13-3
Super Bowl Winner – Denver – 12-4

As the Colorado Rockies are proving in the MLB playoffs, being the most talented team isn't necessary in the postseason. It's a combination of getting hot at the right time and a certain degree of luck.

Right now, I say that there's a 30% chance of New England winning the Super Bowl.

McKnight & Sanchez may be the best way for USC to get to New Orleans.

Nobody whose been to USC practice this year was the least bit surprised by what Joe McKnight did at the Coliseum on Saturday in USC's surprisingly narrow 20-13 win over Arizona. The Trojans had their collective backs against the wall in the the 4th quarter when he broke off a spectacular 45-yard punt return to set up the go-ahead touchdown. Then he electrified the crowd and his teammates with a 59-yard run late in the game, which helped to set up USC's victory sealing field goal.

We've been waiting for this. This 5'11", 193-pound true freshman from River Ridge, Louisiana runs a blistering 4.4 40. He's got breakaway speed. remarkable balance and he's as elusive as they come. He's also the best offensive weapon on this team, which is struggling in a big way on offense. Steve Sarkisian needs to figure out how to get him the football "6 ways to Sunday." Here's a look at what made McKnight the most sought-after tailback in America.

The spirit of the Trojan football program is best captured by "Competition Tuesday." In theory, there's an open competition for every starting position every Tuesday. The idea is to practice hard and the coaches will play the guys that give USC the best chance to win on that Saturday.

Joe McKnight gives the Trojans a "home run ball" threat every time he touches the football. He's the offensive "lightning" the same way that Reggie Bush was. When he recovers from his foot injury, I say that sophomore Stafon Johnson should be the "thunder" (the LenDale White role).

There's a tendency among some in the program to believe that guys like Chauncey Washington and Herschel Dennis deserve a certain deference. They've been around the program for years, they're seniors, they've battled through injuries, and now should be their time. That's a nice thought, but, honestly, McKnight and a healthy Johnson give SC the best chance to at Oregon and Cal.

At quarterback, Saturday was a tale of 2 halves for first-time starter Mark Sanchez. After an excellent first quarter drive, which led to a 7-0 lead, the sophomore threw 2 bad interceptions. In the 2nd half, he seemed to find himself. With a banged-up offensive line, he scrambled in the end zone and hit Patrick Turner with a perfect pass. Some key scrambles, a perfect scoring pass to Fred Davis, and his rah-rah temperment all add up to, in my opinion, Sanchez being the right man to lead this Trojan football team the rest of the way.

Hopefully, Steve Sarkisian is beginning to identify the best offensive strategy for keeping this tem afloat in the National Championship race. 72 offensive plays for USC - 41 rushes vs. 31 pass attempts. Whether it's with JD Booty managing the game or a raw talent like Mark Sanchez behind center, this team should be running the ball more than throwing it. Chew up the clock and let the outstanding Trojan defense stifle the opponent.

USC is #14 in the first BCS rankings, but if they win out, with victories at Orgeon, Cal and Arizona St., my gut says that they would probably be in New Orleans for the BCS Championship Game. Unfortunately, my gut also says that this isn't the kind of Trojan team that can run the table, but with Pete Carroll, it's not impossible.