Ever wonder what Steve Mason does at about Midnight on Friday night?
I've become "Mr. Movie Box Office Guy." Every Friday night, I go to work on figuring out how all of the would-be blockbusters are doing at America's multiplexes. Thanks to great sources in the industry, lots of experience as an exhibitor and a lot of trial-and-error, I am generally recognized as the guy who comes up with the earliest and most accurate box office numbers every weekend. It comes in handy on the website that I co-own called Fantasy Moguls.
So, as of Midnight Friday, here are the Top 20 movies for Friday and for the 3-day weekend. These numbers will either be dead-on or pretty damn close.
FRIDAY NIGHT: New Line’s re-teaming of Chris Tucker, Jackie Chan and director Brett Ratner has proved worth every penny of its investment as Rush Hour 3 is officially a blockbuster. The action-comedy has grabbed an estimated $17.8M on its opening day, and that should translate to a 3-day haul of approximately $49.8M. That’s less than Rush Hour 2’s opening weekend of $67.4M back in 2001, but it’s considerably stronger than the original 1998 Rush Hour opening weekend of $33M.
RH3 marks the 3rd best opening weekend of Ratner’s career.
TOP 5 OPENING WEEKENDS FOR BRETT RATNER-DIRECTED FILMS
1. X-Men: The Last Stand - $102.7M
2. Rush Hour 2 - $67.4M
3. Rush Hour 3 - $49.8M (estimate)
4. Red Dragon - $36.5M
5. Rush Hour - $33M
For both Tucker and Chan, it is the all-time 2nd best opening, trailing only Rush Hour 2.
TOP 5 CHRIS TUCKER OPENINGS
1. Rush Hour 2 - $67.4M
2. Rush Hour 3 - $49.8M (estimate)
3. Rush Hour - $33M
4. The Fifth Element - $17M
5. Money Talks - $10.6M
TOP 5 JACKIE CHAN OPENINGS
1. Rush Hour 2 - $67.4M
2. Rush Hour 3 - $49.8M (estimate)
3. Rush Hour - $33M
4. Shanghai Knights - $19.6M
5. Shanghai Noon - $15.6M
Last weekend’s box office champion The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) is holding exceedingly well with a $10.7M Friday, vaulting its 8-day cume to $109.3M. The Greengrass/Damon thriller is headed for a very strong second weekend in the $34M range. The Simpsons Movie (Fox) grabbed $3.7M to kick off the weekend, and it will bank an estimated $12.3M by Monday morning, putting Homer and family above the $150M mark.
The $70M Paramount fantasy film Stardust looks like a bust. From director Matthew Vaughn (Layer Cake), the movie has an excellent cast and terrific reviews (74% Fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes and a solid 65% Postive score at MetaCritic), but it’s a quirky picture and the studio never quite figured out how to sell it. Stardust managed only $3M on Friday, and it will top out at approximately $9M for the weekend.
The other 2 new releases are full-on disasters. Daddy Day Camp (Sony) scrounged up just $1.35M to start the weekend, and its 3-day will be just over $4M. Meanwhile, the latest Lionsgate/After Dark exploitation/horror picture Skinwalkers is making last month’s Captivity look like a blockbuster. On just over 700 screens, Skinwalkers generated just $185,000 on Friday, and its 3-day gross will be an estimated $500,000.
Other highlights...
-Becoming Jane (Miramax) has expanded strongly on 600 screens. The Anne Hathaway vehicle delivered just over $800,000 on Friday, and it will bank $2.6M by Monday morning.
-With just under $1M on Friday, Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) has nudged past the magical $300M mark.
-New Line's Hairspray will definitely top $100M before it's domestic run is through. With an estimated $6.35M this weekend, it'll be at a new cume of $92M.
-Universal's mega-budgeted Evan Almighty picked up a significant number of discount houses Friday, and the family film got a nice surge. By Monday, the Steve Carell comedy will be just $2.1M away from $100M. The picture will be a huge loser regardless, but that mark might take some of the sting out of all that red ink.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) - $17.8M [$17.8M cume]
2. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) - $10.7M [$109.3M cume]
3. The Simpsons Movie (Fox) - $3.7 [$144.8M cume]
4. Stardust (Paramount) - $3M [$3M cume]
5. Underdog (Buena Vista) - $2.3M [$20.5M cume]
6. Hairspray (New Line) - $2.07M [$87.8M cume]
7. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) - $1.9M [$99.8M cume]
8. Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros) - $1.7M [$268.3M cume]
9. Daddy Day Camp (Sony) - $1.35M [$2.8M cume]
10. No Reservations - $1.3M [$29.4M cume]
11. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $950,000 [$300.5M cume]
12. Becoming Jane (Miramax) - $806,000 [$2.4M cume]
13. Hot Rod (Paramount) - $725,000 [$9.5M cume]
14. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) - $710,000 [$191.7M cume]
15. Bratz - $469,000 [$6.6M cume]
16. El Cantante - $367,000 [$4.5M cume]
17. Skinwalkers (Lionsgate/After Dark) - $185,000 [$185,000 cume]
18. Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) - $137,500 [$131.3M cume]
19. Talk to Me (Focus) - $120,000 [$3.2M cume]
20. Evan Almighty (Universal) - $116,560 [$97.7M cume]
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Rush Hour 3 (New Line) - $49.8M [$49.8M cume]
2. The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal) - $34M [$132.6M cume]
3. The Simpsons Movie (Fox) - $12.3M [$153.4M cume]
4. Stardust (Paramount) - $9M [$9M cume]
5. Underdog (Buena Vista) - $7M [$25.2M cume]
6. Hairspray (New Line) - $6.35M [$92M cume]
7. I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry (Universal) - $6M [$103.8M cume]
8. Harry Potter & the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros) - $5.9M [$272.5M cume]
9. Daddy Day Camp (Sony) - $4.1M [$5.5M cume]
10. No Reservations - $4M [$32.1M cume]
11. Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $3.4M [$303M cume]
12. Becoming Jane (Miramax) - $2.6M [$4.2M cume]
13. Ratatouille (Buena Vista) - $2.4M [$193.4M cume]
14. Hot Rod (Paramount) - $2.2M [$10.9M cume]
15. Bratz - $1.47M [$7.6M cume]
16. El Cantante - $1.175M [$5.3M cume]
17. Skinwalkers (Lionsgate/After Dark) - $503,000 [$503,000 cume]
18. Live Free or Die Hard (Fox) - $467,500 [$131.6M cume]
19. Talk to Me (Focus) - $442,000 [$3.5M cume]
20. Evan Almighty (Universal) - $375,000 [$97.9M cume]
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