710 ESPN's "SMOG" - Steve Mason's Blog

FUNNY PEOPLE getting fewer laughs than Apatow classics with just $8M Friday & a likely $22M 3-Day!

Judd Apatow's Funny People (Universal) appears to be a disappointment managing just $8M on opening despite solid reviews and an all-star cast. With a likely $22M 3-day target, the movie will finish well behind his 2007 phenom Knocked Up ($30.7M) and more in line with his first directorial effort The 40-Year Old Virgin, which scored about $21.4M back in 2005. If the number for Funny People holds, it will be about half of the $45M or so generated by The Hangover, the year's #1 comedy. Meanwhile the other two new wide releases, Fox's Aliens in the Attic and The Collector from Freestyle, are basically non-starters.

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON EARLY FRIDAY & 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Funny People (Universal) - $8M Fri - $22M 3-Day - $22M Cume
2. G-Force (Disney) - $6.2M Fri -$20.7M 3-Day - $70.1M Cume
3. Harry Potter 6 (Warner Bros) - $5.5M Fri - $18.3M 3-Day - $256M Cume
4. The Ugly Truth (Sony) - $4.5M Fri - $13.6M 3-Day - $55M Cume
*Aliens in the Attic (Fox) - $2.8M Fri - $8.2M 3-Day - $8.2M Cume
*Transformers 2 (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $1.5M Fri - $4.8M 3-Day - $388.3M Cume
*The Collector (Freestyle) - $1.2M Fri - $3.1M 3-Day - $3.1M Cume

MLB DEADLINE: Dodgers solidify bullpen while Angels sit on their hands.

Another MLB Trade Deadline has come and gone, and as always there are winners and losers. Last July, the Dodgers acquired Manny Ramirez at mid-season and the Halos corralled Mark Texiera. By those standards, this is a highly uneventful deadline for Southern California.

Nobody got Roy Halladay, which winds up being good news for both the Dodgers and Angels (the Rangers, Phillies and Cardinals were all pushing hard). Nobody was willing to pay Blue Jay GM JP Ricciardi's ridiculous asking price for his ace. He will live to regret it. As the Twins found out with Johan Santana, the value of a premiere starting pitcher plummets the closer he gets to free agency. Billy Beane in Oakland set the standard by trading big-time starters early. The Padres would have been better off moving Jake Peavy during the offseason (before he got hurt), instead of dealing him for a lesser package to the Chicago White Sox today.

Next year, Toronto is asured of a 4th-place finish in the AL East, and what purpose does Halladay serve. Plus every time he steps on the mound between now and then, his 30+ stud could damage his multimillion dollar arm. The packages he sees for Halladay during the offseason or at next year's deadline will be even more underwhelming than those offered in the last couple of weeks.

I think Dodger fans should be happy. Although GM Ned Colletti didn't reel in Halladay or Padres 1B Adrian Gonzalez, they did land an All-Star closer George Sherrill from the Orioles for 22yo 3B prospect Josh Bell (maybe their 9th-best prospect) and middling pitching prospect Steve Johnson while hanging onto premium talents like Andrew Lambo, Ivan DeJesus, Jr., Scott Elbert, Ethan Martin, Josh Lindblom and Austin Gallagher.

Joe Torre now has a righty with 20+ saves and a lefty with 20+ saves to call on late in games with Broxton as closer and Sherrill has his 8th inning guy. Now Torre can ease of of Ramon Troncoso (who's thrown a ton of innings) and Guillermo Mota (who gave up his first run in a long time last night).

As for the Angels, what can you say? With a starting rotation that is scuffling and a bullpen that, aside from Brian Fuentes, has been bad all year, Tony Regins makes no move? Zero? Seiously? The first place Tigers get Jarod Washburn, the contending Twins get Orlando Cabrera, the White Sox roll the dice with Jake Peavy and the Red Sox grab Victor Martinez, and the Angels organization pulls a "Stoneman?"

Bottom line: The Dodgers are one of the 2 best teams in the National League while the Angels seem like no match for the Yankees or Red Sox and maybe even the Tiger.

The Relievers: The Dodgers & Angels are targeting these bullpen arms!

While Roy Halladay of the Blue Jays and reigning AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee are the 2 big stars in all of the MLB trade deadline headlines, the Dodgers and Angels are far more likely to acquire bullpen help.

For the Dodgers, 2008 stud Corey Wade is on the DL, and, although he'll be back soon, he has yet to regain last year's form with an ERA of 5.53. Ronald Belisario, who had been a revelation for Joe Torre over the first half of the season, remains on the shelf with a strained elbow. Lefty Hong-Chi Kuo is off the 60-day DL, but he threw in his first game since April yesterday against the Cardinals. Brent Leach, another left-hander, has been hammered lately, leaving Guillermo Mota and Ramon Troncoso as the stalwarts of the Dodgers pen. Mota has gone 11 straight appearances without allowing a run, but he has now thrown 48.1 innings. Meanwhile Troncoso has tossed 61 innings in his first full big league season.

As a team, LA has a bullpen ERA of 3.27, which is spectacular. In fact, the Dodgers have the best bullpen ERA in the National League and the 2nd-best in all of baseball trailing the Red Sox. Still, bullpen depth is absolutely critical, and I have been told that the Ned Colletti is especially keen on George Sherrill from the O's, the 2 Pirates relievers being shopped, Matt Capps and John Grabow, lefty Scott Downs and RHP Jason Frasor from the Jays and A's reliever Mike Wuertz.

The Angels have much bigger problems.Scot Shields is gone for the year after undergoing season-ending surgery on his patella tendon, and Jose Arredondo is at Salt Lake trying to put himself back together. Flame-thrower Kevin Jepsen has a 7+ ERA for the season, but he's put together a nice string of performances over the last 3 weeks for a 2.35 ERA. Darren Oliver has been outstanding all year long, but he has been the only wire-to-wire stud helping Mike Scioscia get to Brian Fuentes on a nightly basis.

It's amazing that the Halos are 18 games over .500 with a team bullpen ERA of 4.87. Only 3 bullpens in all of baseball have been worse (Kansas City-4.96, Cleveland-5.12 and Washington-5.26). I am a strong reliever that a team will only go as far as their bullpen will carry them. Bullpens win championships. Last season, the Phillies won it all with essentially 1 starting pitcher (Cole Hammels) and the best bullpen in the National League (3.22 regular season bullpen ERA).

 Tony Regins seems to have zeroes in on Mike Wuertz, and Billy Beane of the A's has never shown any real reticence to trade inside the division. I have been told that the Angels also love Sherrill, who, although he is left-handed, is proficient against right-handed hitters. The Padres are not especially excited about moving All-Star Heath Bell, but he could form a devastating lefty-righty combo with Fuentes if the Halos are able to cobble together an attractive enough package.

Here's a scouting report on all of the relievers who are on the Dodgers and Angels shopping lists.

RHP CHAD QUALLS, D-BACKS

For the Season
39gms - 1-1 record - 18 svs - 4 blown svs - 40.2ip - 3.54 ERA - 1.16 WHIP
Last 3 Weeks
6gms - 0-0 record - 3 svs - 0 blown svs - 6.1ip - 1.42 ERA - 1.11 WHIP

LHP GEORGE SHERRILL, ORIOLES

For the Season
41gms - 0-1 record - 20 svs - 3 blown svs - 40.1ip - 2.45 ERA - 1.14 WHIP
Last 3 Weeks
7gms - 0-0 record - 2 svs - 0 blown svs - 7ip - 2.57 ERA - 1.14 WHIP

LHP SCOTT DOWNS, BLUE JAYS

For the Season
33gms - 1-2 record - 9 svs - 3 blown svs - 33.1ip - 2.97 ERA - 1.11 WHIP
Last 3 Weeks
7gms - 0-2 record - 1 svs - 2 blown svs - 6ip - 7.50 ERA - 2.17 WHIP

RHP JASON FRASOR, BLUE JAYS

For the Season
41gms - 5-2 record - 3 svs - 2 blown svs - 38 ip - 2.13 ERA - 1.00 WHIP
Last 3 Weeks
8gms - 0-1 record - 3 svs - 2 blown svs - 8ip - 1.12 ERA - 0.88 WHIP

RHP MIKE WUERTZ, A'S

For the Season
45gms - 5-1 record - 3 svs - 1 blown svs - 47.1ip - 3.23 ERA - 1.06 WHIP
Last 3 Weeks
7gms - 1-0 record - 1 svs - 0 blown svs - 8.1ip - 5.40 ERA - 1.68 WHIP

RHP MATT CAPPS, PIRATES

For the Season
36gms - 2-5 record - 20 svs - 2 blown svs - 33ip - 6.00 ERA - 1.73 WHIP
Last 3 Weeks
6gms - 1-1 record - 2 svs - 0 blown svs - 5.1ip - 11.81 ERA - 3.00 WHIP

LHP JOHN GRABOW, PIRATES

For the Season
44gms - 3-0 record - 0 svs - 2 blown svs - 43ip - 3.57 ERA - 1.57 WHIP
Last 3 Weeks
8gms - 0-0 record - 0 svs - 0 blown svs - 8.1ip - 3.24 ERA - 1.80 WHIP

RHP DAVID WEATHERS, REDS

For the Season
39gms - 2-2 record - 1 svs - 3 blown svs - 34.1ip - 3.15 ERA - 1.14 WHIP
Last 3 Weeks
7gms - 2-1 record - 0 svs - 0 blown svs - 7ip - 5.14 ERA - 1.29 WHIP

RHP HEATH BELL, PADRES

For the Season
37gms - 3-1 record - 24 svs - 1 blown svs - 39.1ip - 2.06 ERA - 1.09 WHIP
Last 3 Weeks
3gms - 0-0 record - 1 svs - 0 blown svs - 5ip - 9.00 ERA - 1.67 WHIP

Cliff Lee plus Victor Martinez makes more sense for the Dodgers than Roy Halladay!

Over the weekend, there were reports that Ned Colletti and the Dodgers were nearing a blockbuster deal with the Cleveland Indians. There was some speculation that it consisted of Dodger starting first baseman James Loney and either Chad Billingsley or Clayton Kershaw to the Tribe for 1B/C Victor Martinez and reigning Cy Young winner Cliff Lee.

Let's start by saying that all parties have denied, denied, denied, but I think there is some potential here.

James Loney is a nice player. He's a slightly above average defensive first baseman, and he's batting .285 with 7 homers, 62rbi, .356 obp and a .788 ops. He's also very cheap, but approaching his arbitration years. But my sources indicate that there is absolutely no way - a 0% chance - that Colletti will part with either Billingsley or budding ace Kershaw. As Joe Torre says, there's no point making an acquisition if you "spring a leak" somewhere else.

Here's what works, but without creating a "leak." Loney is in play. He is never going to hit or power. He's fine, but 30 homers is a "pipe dream." So the package starts with him. Then you round out the offer with 2 propsects from this group: Class AA third baseman Josh Bell, Class AA outfielder Andrew Lambo, Class AAA right-hander Josh Lindblom and Class AAA left-hander Scott Elbert. "Maybe" you even think about including a guy like James MacDonald, who would be inserted right into Cleveland's starting rotation.

The Dodgers would receive Martinez and Lee.

C/1B Victor Martinez
.287 - 14hr - 64rbi - .368 obp - .832 ops
Final year of a 5yr - $15.5M contract, and there's a team option of $7M for 2010

SP Cliff Lee
22 starts - 7-9 record - 3.14 ERA - 1.30 WHIP
Final year of a 4yr - $15M contract, and there's a team option of $8M for 2010

Notice that both of these guys are under contract for 2010 for a combined $15M. That would be approximately the cost of Roy Halladay for next season.

That would mean that, in the playoffs, the Dodgers would start Lee in Game 1, Billingsley in Game 2 and Kershaw in Game 3 of a series. And, it would give them a starting lineup of Raffy Furcal, Orlando Hudson, Manny Ramirez, Victor Martinez, Andre Ethier, Casey Blake, Russ Martin and Matt Kemp.

That team would win the World Series!

Is it me? Or is it hard to take Tony Romo seriously as an NFL quarterback?

Tony Romo: Product Spokesman from Tony Romo

This is a little comedy spoof about sports endorsements starring Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo. It's kind of funny, but I seriously question why this guy is focused on getting laughs instead of getting wins.

I have virtually no interest in gossip. Maybe there's something wrong with me. We live in the age of Kim Kardashian (she's hot, but I don't care if she gets along with Bruce Jenner and her sisters) and Heidi Montag (I watch The Hills, but recognize that it is all scripted silliness) and David Beckham (he's married to a Spice Girl and his team's fans hate him) and Carrie Anne Prejean (the most famous runner-up in Miss America history). I don't really care about TMZ or Perez Hilton. News about faux celebrities isn't my thing.

The equivalent of gossip for us guys is "Who would the Dodgers give up for Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay?" Or, "What's Lamar Odom thinking by not accepting Dr. Buss' 3-year contract?" Technically, that's rumor, speculation, conjecture and hearsay.

Apparently Tony Romo and Jessica Simpson are no longer together as a couple. On a human level, I wish them both well. We've all had relationships go south, and it's never fun. But, there's a requirement that an athlete must have in order for me to like him, root for him and admire him.

Be about your sport, your team and winning. Be about the steak and not about the sizzle. Don't enjoy the limelight too much. Be nice to your fans and remember that your primary responsibility is to deliver on the field on the diamond and on the court and not in the tabloids.

Here's what I know about Tony Romo (that's not really a picture of him choking, but you get the idea). Last year, the Cowboys lost 3 outta their last 4. In those 3 losses, he was 64-120 (53%) with 3 TD passes and 6 INTs as Dallas missed the playoffs. In 2007, Dallas lost 2 of their final 3 regular season games, before being ousted from the playoffs by the Giants in the Divisional playoffs. Lifetime, Tony Romo is 0-2 as a starter in the postseason.

Having shed the tabloid spotlight of his relationship with Jessica Simpson (and her tag-a-long Dad), Romo has a chance to be all about football...all about winning....all about a championship. His seemingly harmless spoof on FunnyOrDie.com suggests that he cares more about all the stuff that goes along with being the starting quarterback of the NFL's premiere franchise more than he does about bringing the Lombardi Trophy back to Texas.

Everybody wants to be wanted: Lamar & Beckham aren't feeling the love!

David Beckham said it after he was booed relentlessly at the Home Depot Center on Sunday night. "At the end of the day you can't be liked by everybody," says Becks. But to look at the crowd reaction at the Galaxy's "friendly" with AC Milan Sunday you have to wonder, "Does anybody in LA have anything nice to say about the Euro soccer star?"

The soccer faithful, which doesn't include me, apparently see him as an overpaid, over-the-hill superstar. I don't know enough about what the rest of the world calls football to say for sure, but I do know that if I was AEG, I would be questioning the investment I made in England's pretty-boy soccer star. Is this guy really the pied piper who was supposed to lead America's sports fans to become MLS fans? He's an awful ambassador for a sport that could really use one.

One of the things that I have had to get used to over the years is that, if you're any good at all, a certain number of people are going to hate you. In fact in radio, they do "focus groups" where they get groups of random listeners together and ask them to rate different personalities. If one of these focus group members loves a personality, they give a "5" and if they hate him, they give a "1." I have been told by management types that when I am rated in this way I get a lot of 5's and a lot of 1's and very few 3's.

I "hate" that a big chunk of radio listeners "hate" me, but if I got straight 3's and everybody thought I was just OK, I'd have been out of work years ago.

Would any soccer fans give Beckham a "5" in a Galaxy focus group right now? Almost none. Mostly 1's and 2's given the reaction at Home Depot Center last night.

After the Lakers 15th World Championship was won last month, you'd guess that most purple & gold fans would give Lamar 4's and 5's. But somehow, he feels unappreciated by the offer made by Dr. Jerry Buss and the Lakers organization. The facts are pretty clear.

*Barring a late charge from Portland, nobody will pay Lamar Odom as much as the Lakers. Seems like the most recent offer (now pulled by the team) was 3 years -$27M with a 4th year at the team's option for an additional $9M. The team could also buy out Year 4 for $3M. That makes for $30M guaranteed over 3 years.

*If he goes to Miami, where he owns a home and enjoys the vibe, he can only be paid the Mid-Level Exception. That means $5.8M next season. That's $2M less than Mark Blount, 1/4 as much as the oft-injured Jermaine O'Neal, less than Udonis Haslem and a couple of bucks more than what 2nd year player Michael Beasley will make.

*He'd be the 5th-highest paid member of next year's Heat. He'd be the 4th-highest paid member of the World Champion Lakers.

Going to Miami makes no sense for LO, but he's a good-hearted, sensitive guy with a candy addiction and a bad agent. Now that the offer was pulled and agent Jeff Schwartz has had a chance to think about out (and Lamar has seen and heard the fallout), it's the perfect time for the Lakers to put pride aside and circle back to the original offer.

Grinding Lamar with a lower number, might be enough to get him to do the ridiculous and go to Miami. Odom wants to be wanted. The Lakers can make this deal right now. No other team can get close. The moment the Lakers show him some meaningful "love," he'll be back in the fold.

EXCLUSIVE: 'Harry Potter 6' with $28.5M Friday & a possible $83.5M 3-day; 5-day 'HP' cume of $163.68M shy of the staggering $200M 5-day for 'Transformers 2'!

EXCLUSIVE STEVE MASON FRIDAY & 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Harry Potter 6 (Warner Bros) - $28.5M Friday - $83.5M 3-day - $163.68M cume
2. Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs (Fox) - $5.8M Friday - $18.7M 3-day [down 32%] - $153M cume
3. Transformers 2 (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $4.5M Friday - $14.5M 3-day [down 42%] - $364.61M cume
4.The Proposal (Disney) - $2.9M Friday - $8.8M 3-day [down 17%] -$128.59M cume
5. Bruno (Universal) - $2.9M Friday - $8.5M 3-day [down 72%] - 49.71M cume

Lunch With the Legends of the 1984 Summer Olympics: Retton, Vidmar, Connor & Louganis

With Olympic Legend Mary Lou Retton who became the first American woman to win the All Around Olympic Gold Medal 25 years ago


710 ESPN's Lunch With A Legend: From left John Ireland, Olympic champion Greg Louganis, me, Gold medalist Peter Vidmar, former Laker Mychael Thompson, 1984 Olympics star Mary Lou Retton and Olympic champ Bart Connor

Hilarious photo of 710 ESPN's Mychael Thompson with Mary Lou Retton


Now married to fellow Olympic hero Nadia Comaneci, Bart Connor makes his home in Norman, Oklahoma and just flew to Los Angeles from Bucharest, Romania


Diver Greg Louganis won 2 Gold medals at the 1984 Los Angeles Games and finished his Olympic career with 4 gold and 1 silver medal

My Personal Photos from The ESPYs: From Mark Sanchez to "Iron Mike" to Condi Rice!

With Former USC-turned-Jets Quarterback Mark Sanchez


Chatting Up Rey Malauga of the Bengals


LA Clippers #1 Draft Pick Blake Griffin


Jalen Rose showed up at The ESPYs single, but we're sure he left with a date


Lakers Exec Jeannie Buss tells us that she is confident that things will work out with Lamar Odom

With Heisman Winner & Gators Star QB Tim Tebow


WHITE SHADOW Star Ken Howard (nominated for an Emmy for GREY GARDENS on HBO)


"Iron Mike" talks about his role in mega-hit THE HANGOVER


Mike is also featured in an amazing new documentary called TYSON,
directed by James Toback


Josh Powell, who could play a huge role for the World Champion Lakers, especially if Lamar Odom doesn't return


Dodger Matt Kemp on how the team stayed afloat without Manny Ramirez


Kemp was barely beaten by Phillie Shane Victorino in the online fan vote for
the final NL All Star roster spot


Sasha Vujacic of the Lakers talks about appearing on LA Dodgers billboards all over town


Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on hand to present
the Outstanding Female Athlete Award


Ms. Rice says that her former boss President Bush knows every imaginable baseball stat


Carmelo Anthony tells us that now that he got his team past the first round of the
NBA Playoffs, people are starting to realize how good he is


The jacket is misleading - Melo did not win The Masters


Virtually every Laker made an appearance as they prepared to claim The ESPY for Outstanding Team - Here's Jordan Farmar


Shawn Merriman says he's 100% healthy for the upcoming San Diego Chargers season


That's me by the Y

Who's Gonna Win the Home Run Derby? - Don't count out Pena, Cruz and Darkhorse Inge!

There’s really no rhyme or reason to picking the winner of MLB’s Annual Home Run Derby. It’s always fun watching this glorified batting practice and seeing who can settle into a groove. The obvious player doesn’t always win. Last year at Yankee Stadium, Justin Morneau launched 22 bombs to win the Derby crown. In 2007, it was Vlad Guererro with 17 dingers, topping Al Pujols, Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder, who are all in the chase tonight at Busch Stadium.

None of tonight’s 8 competitors have won before, and picking a winner is really just a guess. After all, Bobby Abreu broke the all-time Home Run Derby record in 2005 with 41 homers. Nobody could’ve seen that coming. But, here’s a little useful research.

The stat that can be reasonably predictive is home runs per at bat. Here are the 8 sluggers in the contest tonight along with their 2009 at bat totals, home runs and the number of at bats between homers.

National League
Albert Pujols – 307 at bats – 32 homers - 9.59 at bats between home runs
Adrian Gonzalez – 308 at bats – 24 homers – 12.83 at bats between home runs
Prince Fielder – 308 at bats – 22 homers – 14 at bats between home runs
Ryan Howard – 331 at bats – 22 homers - 15.04 at bats between home runs

American League
Carlos Pena – 311 at bats – 24 homers – 12.95 at bats between home runs
Nelson Cruz – 297 at bats – 22 homers – 13.5 at bats between home runs
Brandon Inge – 299 at bats – 21 homers – 14.23 at bats between home runs
Joe Mauer – 241 at bats – 15 homers – 16.06 at bats between home runs

If I was a betting man, and I’m not, I would bet against Pujols, who has struggled in the Home Run Derby in the past. Here are the current odds.

Odds to win the 2009 Home Run Derby (BetUS.com)

Albert Pujols +200
Ryan Howard +275
Prince Fielder +400
Adrian Gonzalez +550
Carlos Pena +600
Nelson Cruz +600
Joe Mauer +800
Brandon Inge +1200

That means, you bet $100 on Pujols to win $200. Given the homers per at bats rankings above, the great value bets are Carlos Pena and Nelson Cruz both at +600 and Brandon Inge at +1200 is a reasonably good wager.