710 ESPN's "SMOG" - Steve Mason's Blog

Is an Opening Night Sellout Too Much to Expect for The Halos?

As of late this afternoon, the Angels opener tonight against the Oakland A's was not sold out. How is that possible? Coming off a 100-win season and having made the playoffs in 5 of the past 7 years with a World Championship in 2002, why is the OC not backing the Halos with a full house?

We kicked this around on the radio this afternoon. The first caller said, "We're sick of losing to Boston." Let's get real. Prior to this 7 year stretch, the Angels had been to the playoffs only 1 time in 19 years. This 2009 LA Angels team is a heavy favorite to win the decision.

Tony Reagins and ownership went for broke last year when they traded Casey Kotchman for Mark Teixiera. They knew that there was a chance they would lose Tex to free agency, and ultimately they did. Arte Moreno made a totally credible offer to Teixiera, but the Yankees have the ability to trump anyone.

The Angels rarely do the sexy thing. Angels fans are underestimating the productivity of Bobby Abreu, who they signed as a free agent. Last year with the Yankees, Abreu posted an .842 OPS (.371 OBP and .471 SLG). That's would've been the 4th-best OPS for  the Angels last year, trailing only Mark Teixiera (.962), Mike Napoli (.960) and Vlad Guerrero (.886). Abreu can play left field, and he's a natural rightfielder, giving Mike Scioscia some real flexibility.

Having spoken to both Reagins and Scioscia, I know that they are very confident in Cuban 1B Kendry Morales. In 377 Major League at bats, he's got 12 homers, 45 RBIs, a .249 BA and just a .302 OBP. He's also very limited defensively. If you're looking for an optimistic view, he has an .892 OPS in parts of 3 AAA seasons at Salt Lake. My hunch is that this guy will be streaky, but will ultimately struggle more than he succeeds. If the Angels need to add a piece at the trade deadline, it could be a first baseman.

The surprise for the 2009 Angels, I predict, will be Juan Rivera. The organization has invested real money (3 years-$12.75M) in this former Yankee farmhand. People forget that in 2006 when he got 448 at bats, he smacked 23 bombs with 85 RBIs with an .887 OPS. If he stays healthy, he is going to mash this year.

They will need to survive the first 4-6 weeks while they await the return of John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar, but they will survive. And, the postseason is about getting hot at the right time. Once they win the division, there is no reason that Lackey, Santana and a smokin' bullpen can't get trhem back to the World Series.

Dodgers could average 4.5-5 runs per game in 2009!; Prepare for nightly fireworks at The Ravine.

Now that we are conveniently located at LA Live and are just a stone's throw from Chavez Ravine, I am looking forward to getting to a few more Dodger games this year. If you're a Dodger fan, there is real reason to be excited about hot summer nights at the Ravine.

I will concede that there are questions about the quality of the starting rotation, and I'll write about that as we get into the season, but this Dodger lineup is dramatically improved. First off, lemme say that I don't look at batting averages very much. They're nice, but I think that lineups succeed and fail based on OPS, which is OBP plus Slugging Percentage.

This re-tooled Dodger team starts at the top with Rafael Furcal, who seems to be healthy. He's a fragile guy, but he gets on base a lot (.369 obp last year), and although he won't match year's 1.012 OPS (a product of missing a bunch of games and being great in the ones he played), it is reasonable to expect that he'll match his career average ops of .764.

Raffy will be followed in the lineup by Orlando Hudson who had an .817 OPS last year for the D-Backs. They also get Manny Ramirez for the full season (1.031 OPS last year). Manny's career average OPS is a totally insane 1.004! Plus, a full year of Casey Blake batting either 7th or 8th with his career average OPS of .781.

 

The Dodgers were 13th in the National League in runs scored last year with 700. I think this lineup, as long as everybody stays healthy, could score 780-800 runs, which would put them at the top of the league with the Cubs, Phillies and Mets.

Here is how the Dodger lineup looks with last 2008 numbers.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS
rafael furcal-ss - .300 ba - .369 obp - .355 slug - 1.012 ops  
orlando hudson-2b - .305 ba - .367 obp - .450 slug - .817 ops
manny ramirez-lf - .332 ba  - .430 obp - .601 slug - 1.031 ops
andre ethier-rf - .305 ba  - .375 obp - .510 slug - .885 ops
matt kemp-cf - .290  ba - .340 obp - .459 slug - .799 ops
james loney-1b - .289  ba  - .338 obp - .434 slug - .833 ops
casey blake-3b - .274 ba - .345 obp - .463 slug - .808 ops
russell martin-c - .280 ba - .385 obp - .396 slug - .781 ops
AVERAGE: .297 BA - .369 OBP - .459 SLUG - .871 OPS

Despite all the talk about San Francisco, and the rotation of Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Randy Johnson, Jonathan Sanchez and Barry Zito, the Giants lineup is awful. They've added a well-past-his-expiration-date Edgard Renteria and the kids at the bottom of the lineup are works-in-progress. SF and the Padres will battle for fewest runs scored in the NL this season.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
fred lewis-lf - .286 ba - .359 obp - .434 slug - .791 ops     
edgar renteria-ss - .270 ba - .317 obp - .382 slug - .699 ops    
randy winn-rf - .306 ba - .363 obp - .426 slug - .789 ops     
bengie molina-c - .292 ba - .322 obp - .445 slug - .767 ops   
aaron rowand-cf - .271 ba - .339 obp - .410 slug - .749 ops   
pablo sandoval-3b - .303 ba - .342 obp - .445 slug - .787 ops         
travis ishikawa-1b - .260 ba - .350 obp - .453 slug - .803 ops       
emmanuel burriss-2b - .283 ba - .357 obp - .329 slug - .686 ops
AVERAGE: .284 BA - .344 OBP - .416 SLUG - .759 OPS 

If the Dodgers fail to win the West, I say the challenge will come from Arizona. Brandon Webb and Dan Haren are studs at the top of the rotation, and kid starter Max Scherzer could be ready for primetime, but the D-Back bullpen is a mess with Chad Qualls closing after converting only 9 of 17 saves last year. And, that team OBP is terrible at just .337.

3B Mark Reynolds is a near lock to lead the league in strikeouts after 204 last season (paging Dave Kingman), and they were 2nd in the National League in K's overall with Chris Young at 165 and 3 other starters topping 100 (Upton, Drew and Snyder).

ARIZONA D-BACKS
felipe lopez-2b - .283 ba - .343 obp - .387 slug - .730 ops 
stephen drew-ss - .291 ba - .333 obp - .502 slug - .835 ops
conor jackson-lf - .300 ba - .376 obp - .446 slug - .822 ops
mark reynolds-3b - .239 ba - .320 obp - .485 slug - .778 ops 
justin upton-rf - .250 ba - .353 obp - .463 slug - .816 ops   
chris young-cf - .248 ba - .315 obp - .443 slug - .758 ops  
chad tracy-1b - .267 ba - .308 obp - .414 slug - .722 ops
chris snyder-c - .237 ba - .348 obp - .452 slug - .800 ops
AVERAGE: .264 BA - .337 OBP - .449 SLUG - .783 OPS 

Yes, there are pitching questions for the Dodgers, but if they're scoring 4.5-5 runs per game on average, the regular season could be a breeze.

Ashton Kutcher Twitters about how much he loves the Jay Cutler trade!

Ashton Kutcher and wife Demi Moore are two of the most frequent Twitterers. If you want to follow them, Ashton is Twitter@aplusk and Demi is Twitter@mrskutcher. As a native of Iowa, Kutcher is a huge Bears fan, and he went on a Twitter rampage when the Jay Cutler trade was announced yesterday. Here are his actual Tweets.

HOLY GOOD GOATS MILK WE'VE GOT A QB!!!!!!!!!! THANK YOU BABY JESUS BUDAH ALLAH KABBALAH DARWIN WHOEVER!!!!!

I AM IN SHOCK THE BEARS HAVE A QUARTER BACK. OMG I'M THROWING A PARTY!!!!!

CUTLER IS 13-1 WHEN THE D HOLDS THE OPPOSING TEAM BELOW 21 PTS.

I'M SO FREAKING HAPPY THIS IS LIKE RIGHT UP THERE WITH MY WEDDING DAY

why so happy? QBs since mcmahon, tomzack,harbaugh,Willis,Furrer,Kramer,Walsh ,Kreig ,Mirer,Stenstrom,Moreno,Matthews, McNown,Miller

chandler, burris, cordell Stewart,Quinn,Krenzel,Hutchinson,Griese,Orton,Grossman

Just got 2 Tweets direct from Ashton Kutcher.

@LAMase after blasting away for years trying to draft a Qb to get a 3rd yr probowler 4 a couple #1's is a steal. nfl qbs are hard to find.

@LAMase I think we are 1 wr and 1 db away from domination. I'll be bummed to see jenkins go by in the draft. but c'est la vie