Another weekend tracking the box office over at Fantasy Moguls, and here are my 2 analysis pieces published Friday night and Saturday night.
SATURDAY NIGHT: After scoring a narrow box office win over The Kingdom (Universal) on Friday, The Game Plan (Buena Vista) has turned it into a good old-fashioned “blow-out”. While the Peter Berg-directed thriller saw a 13% or so uptick from opening day, Disney’s gridiron family comedy received a huge “kiddie bounce.”
The Game Plan starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson has surged to an estimated $9.87M on Saturday, and it will likely wrap up the weekend with $22.24M or so. For Johnson, this is a greater feat than any of his pro wrestling championships. The Rock has real box office muscle. If that number holds, it’ll mark the 3rd-best opening of his young movie career, trailing only The Scorpion King ($36M), a CGI-driven Mummy sequel, and Be Cool ($23.4M), an ensemble comedy with several bigger names including John Travolta.

The big budget Saudi-set Universal action picture, with a cast that includes Jamie Foxx and Jennifer Garner, is a bit of a disappointment. The Kingdom added $6.6M on Saturday, and it should manage to reach an estimated $17.23M, but that’s well under industry expectations. Zombie sequel Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) crawled to about $3.26M on its 2nd Saturday, and it’ll lumber to a likely $7.49M by Monday morning, putting it just over $36M in its first 10 days of release. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate), with an estimated $5.75M, and 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate), with about $3.9M, should round out the weekend Top 5.
The Wes Anderson comedy The Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) opened on 2 screens in New York City on Saturday, and there can’t have been many empty seats. On 3 screens at the Regal Cinemas Union Square 14 and 1 screen at the AMC Loews Lincoln Square, the India-set comedy starring Owen Wilson, Adrien Brody and Jason Schwartzman has generated a Per Location Average of just over $36,728. The unorthodox Saturday opening will allow Darjeeling Limited to coast to a relatively easy 3-day PTA win with an estimated $66,750 per.
At #2 in the PTA race is Ang Lee’s Lust, Caution (Focus Features), which has its only engagement, on 2 screens, at New York City’s Lincoln Plaza Cinemas on the Upper West Side. The Venice Film Festival winner is playing to near capacity houses and has delivered about $23,000 in sales on its 2nd day, and the Chinese language noir thriller is headed for a weekend PTA of just over $61,000.
Sean Penn’s Into the Wild from Paramount Vantage expanded to 33 locations, and the adventure drama is showing real box office drawing power. At the end of Sunday business, it will have posted an excellent $600,000 3-day and a 3-day PTA of nearly $19,000 per location.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - The Game Plan (Buena Vista) - $9.87M - $3,182 PTA - $16.1M cume
2. NEW – The Kingdom (Universal) - $6.6M - $2,365 PTA - $12.6M cume
3. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) – $3.26M - $1,154 PTA - $34.4M cume
4. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) - $2.34M - $899 PTA - $21.6M cume
5. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) - $1.67M - $629 PTA - $42.5M cume
6. The Brave One (Warner Bros) – $1.65M - $599 PTA - $29.8M cume
7. Eastern Promises (Focus Features) – $1.36M – $966 PTA - $10.7M cume
8. Mr. Woodcock (New Line) – $1.29M - $591 PTA - $18.8M cume
9. Sydney White (Universal) - $1.12M - $536 PTA - $7.8M cume
10. Across the Universe (Sony) - $794,600 - $2,344 PTA - $4.9M cume
*NEW - Feast of Love (MGM) - $682,600 - $569 PTA - $1.2M cume
*In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) - $633,250 - $831 PTA - $2.9M cume
*Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $519,000 - $1,020 PTA - $314.7M cume
*Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) - $242,300 - $7,344 PTA - $726,000 cume
*NEW – Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) - $73,400 - $36,700 PTA - $73,400
*The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) - $68,200 - $1,705 PTA - $330,000 cume
*NEW – Trade (IDP Films) - $40,000 - $443 PTA - $75,000 cume
*The Assassination of Jesse James… (Warner Bros) - $35,000 - $7,000 PTA - $271,000 cume
*NEW – Lust, Caution (Focus Features) - $23,000 - $23,000 PTA - $42,000 cume
*NEW - Sharkwater (Freestyle Releasing) - $12,700 - $212 PTA - $22,000 cume
*NEW – Outsourced (Lantern Lane Entertainment) - $5,622 - $703 PTA - $13,000 cume
*NEW – The Price of Sugar (Mitropoulos Films) - $1,344 - $1,344 PTA - $2,533 cume
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - The Game Plan (Buena Vista) - $22.24M - $7,170 PTA - $22.24M cume
2. NEW – The Kingdom (Universal) - $17.23M - $6,171 PTA - $17.23M cume
3. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) – $7.49M - $2,649 PTA - $36.2M cume
4. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) - $5.75M - $2,205 PTA - $23M cume
5. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) - $3.88M - $1,456 PTA - $43.6M cume
6. The Brave One (Warner Bros) – $3.65M - $1,328 PTA - $30.7M cume
7. Eastern Promises (Focus Features) – $3.2M – $2,275 PTA - $11.5M cume
8. Mr. Woodcock (New Line) – $2.86M - $1,306 PTA - $19.4M cume
9. Sydney White (Universal) - $2.7M - $1,284 PTA - $8.5M cume
10. Across the Universe (Sony) - $1.98M - $5,865 PTA - $5.4M cume
*NEW - Feast of Love (MGM) - $1.7M - $1,418 PTA - $1.7M cume
*In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) - $1.48M - $1,946 PTA - $3.4M cume
*Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $1.13M - $2,231 PTA - $315.1M cume
*Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) - $619,000 - $18,800 PTA - $917,000 cume
*The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) - $161,200 - $4,032 PTA - $374,000 cume
*NEW – Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) - $133,500 - $66,750 PTA - $133,500
*NEW – Trade (IDP Films) - $102,000 - $1,129 PTA - $102,000 cume
*The Assassination of Jesse James… (Warner Bros) - $87,500 - $17,500 PTA - $296,000 cume
*NEW – Lust, Caution (Focus Features) - $61,600 - $61,600 PTA - $61,600 cume
*NEW - Sharkwater (Freestyle Releasing) - $30,000 - $495 PTA - $30,000 cume
*NEW – Outsourced (Lantern Lane Entertainment) - $17,000 - $2,111 PTA - $17,000 cume
*NEW – The Price of Sugar (Mitropoulos Films) - $3,433- $3,433 PTA - $3,433 cume
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) – 2 locations - $36,600 PTA
2. NEW – Lust, Caution (Focus Features) – 1 location - $23,000 PTA
3. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) – 33 locations - $7,344 PTA
4. The Assassination of Jesse James (Warner Bros) – 5 locations - $7,000 PTA
5. NEW – The Game Plan (Buena Vista) – 3,103 locations - $3,182 PTA
6. NEW – The Kingdom (Universal) – 2,793 locations - $2,365 PTA
7. Across the Universe (Sony) – 339 locations - $2,344 PTA
8. The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) – 40 locations - $1,705 PTA
9. NEW – The Price of Sugar (Mitropoulos Films) –1 location - $1,344 PTA
10. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) – 2,828 locations - $1,154 PTA
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) – 2 locations - $66,750 PTA
2. NEW – Lust, Caution (Focus Features) – 1 location - $61,600 PTA
3. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) – 33 locations - $18,752 PTA
4. The Assassination of Jesse James (Warner Bros) – 5 locations - $17,565 PTA
5. NEW – The Game Plan (Buena Vista) – 3,103 locations - $7,170 PTA
6. NEW – The Kingdom (Universal) – 2,793 locations - $6,171 PTA
7. Across the Universe (Sony) – 339 locations - $5,865 PTA
8. The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) – 40 locations - $4,032 PTA
9. NEW – The Price of Sugar (Mitropoulos Films) –1 location - $3,433 PTA
10. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) – 2,828 locations - $2,649 PTA
FRIDAY NIGHT: A "Disney-fied" Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson has beaten Universal's big-budget Middle East-set action-thriller The Kingdom for a weekend box office win. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) generated $5.7M on its opening day, and the family movie will likely score an estimated $19.38M after kids flood America's multiplexes on Saturday and Sunday. Meanwhile, the Peter Berg-directed The Kingdom won't get any "kiddie bounce," and it will finish with a softer $16.75M or so.
For Dwayne Johnson, this marks the thrd-best opening of his post-wrestling movie career, just surpassing, ironically, The Rundown, which was directed by Peter Berg.
ALL-TIME TOP 5 DWAYNE "THE ROCK" JOHNSON OPENINGS
1. The Scorpion King - $36M
2. Be Cool - $23.4M
3. The Game Plan - $19.38M (estimate)
4. The Rundown - $18.5M
5. Walking Tall - $15.5M
The Kingdom continues Jamie Foxx's "spotty" box office track record. Only two of his movies, Collateral and Dreamgirls, have hit $100M domestic, and The Kingdom won't get anywhere close to that benchmark, although it will probably finish as the fifth-best opening of the Oscar winner's career.
ALL-TIME TOP 5 JAMIE FOXX OPENINGS
1. Jarhead - $27.7M opening
2. Miami Vice - $25.7M opening
3. Collateral - $24.7M opening
4. Ray - $20M opening
5. The Kingdom - $16.75M (estimate)
6. Ali - $14.7M opening
Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) will finish the weekend third. After a $2.5M second Friday, the zombie sequel should manage $7.35M, representing a monstrous 69% drop from opening weekend. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) will likely suffer a 56% drop from its opening 3-day. The Dane Cook-Jessica Alba "raunchfest" will probably climb just past $6M for the weekend. Rounding out the Top 5 will likely be the Lionsgate Western 3:10 to Yuma with an estimated $4.1M, lifting it past $40M domestic.
Ang Lee's Lust, Caution (Focus Features), a surprise winner at the Venice Film Festival, has opened with numbers in the stratosphere at its one New York engagement. The Chinese language film with an NC-17 rating scored nearly $19,000 on Friday, and it is targeting a $50,000+ opening weekend PTA at the Lincoln Plaza Cinemas on the Upper West Side. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros), which did not expand from its five "official" opening weekend engagements, delivered another $5,400 or so in PTA Friday, and it will finish no. 2 in PTA for the weekend with an estimated $18,000.
Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage), Sean Penn's terrifically reviewed adventure film starring Emile Hirsch, has expanded strongly to 33 locations. Wild enjoyed a $4,400 PTA on Friday and that should translate to a nearly $16,000 3-day PTA.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - The Game Plan (Buena Vista) - $5.7M - $1,837 PTA - $5.7M cume
2. NEW - The Kingdom (Universal) - $5.55M - $1,987 PTA - $5.55M cume
3. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) - $2.5M - $884 PTA - $31.2M cume
4. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) - $2M - $766 PTA - $19.2M cume
5. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) - $1.2M - $450 PTA - $40.9M cume
6. The Brave One (Warner Bros) - $1.1M - $399 PTA - $28.2M cume
7. Eastern Promises (Focus Features) - $1M - $710 PTA - $9.3M cume
8. Mr. Woodcock (New Line) - $735,000 - $335 PTA - $17.3M cume
9. Sydney White (Universal) - $725,000 - $344 PTA - $6.6M cume
10. Feast of Love (MGM) - $600,000 - $500 PTA - $600,000 cume
*Across the Universe (Sony) - $557,000 - $1,646 PTA - $4M cume
*In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) - $313,000 - $411 PTA - $2.2M cume
*Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $232,000 - $456 PTA - $314.2M cume
*Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) - $147,000 - $4,452 PTA - $521,500 cume
*The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) - $49,000 - $1,218 PTA - $254,000 cume
*The Assassination of Jesse James (Warner Bros) - $26,700 - $5,343 PTA - $235,000 cume
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - The Game Plan (Buena Vista) - $19.38M - $6,246 PTA - $19.38M cume
2. NEW - The Kingdom (Universal) - $16.75M - $5,997 PTA - $16.75M cume
3. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) - $7.35M - $2,599 PTA - $36.1M cume
4. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) - $6.08M - $2,328 PTA - $23.3M cume
5. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) - $4.1M - $1,537 PTA - $43.8M cume
6. The Brave One (Warner Bros) - $3.8M - $1,379 PTA - $30.9M cume
7. Eastern Promises (Focus Features) - $3.35M - $2,379 PTA - $11.6M cume
8. Mr. Woodcock (New Line) - $2.35M - $1,072 PTA - $18.9M cume
9. Sydney White (Universal) - $2.13M - $1,016 PTA - $8M cume
10. Feast of Love (MGM) - $1.9M - $1,583 PTA - $1.9M cume
*Across the Universe (Sony) - $1.75M - $5,183 PTA - $5.2M cume
*In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) - $1.14M - $1,501 PTA - $3M cume
*Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $871,000 - $1,712 PTA - $314.8M cume
*Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) - $522,000 - $15,806 PTA - $820,000 cume
*The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) - $170,500 - $4,263 PTA - $375,000 cume
*The Assassination of Jesse James (Warner Bros) - $91,000 - $18,165 PTA - $299,000 cume
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Lust, Caution (Focus Features) - 1 location - $18,925 PTA
2. The Assassination of Jesse James (Warner Bros) - 5 locations - $5,343 PTA
3. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) - 33 locations - $4,452 PTA
4. NEW - The Kingdom (Universal) - 2,793 locations - $1,987 PTA
5. NEW - The Game Plan (Buena Vista) - 3,103 locations - $1,837 PTA
6. Across the Universe (Sony) - 339 locations - $1,646 PTA
7. The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) - 40 locations - $1,218 PTA
8. NEW - The Price of Sugar (Mitropoulos Films) - 1 location - $1,189 PTA
9. NEW - Outsourced (Lantern Lane Entertainment) - 8 locations - $937 PTA
10. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) - 2,828 locations - $884 PTA
*Feast of Love (MGM) - 1,200 locations - $500 PTA
*Trade (IDP Films) - 90 locations - $387 PTA
*Sharkwater (Freestyle Releasing) - 60 locations - $150 PTA
EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Lust, Caution (Focus Features) - 1 location - $54,883 PTA
2. The Assassination of Jesse James (Warner Bros) - 5 locations - $18,165 PTA
3. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) - 33 locations - $15,806 PTA
4. NEW - The Kingdom (Universal) - 2,793 locations - $5,997 PTA
5. NEW - The Game Plan (Buena Vista) - 3,103 locations - $6,246 PTA
6. Across the Universe (Sony) - 339 locations - $5,183 PTA
7. The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) - 40 locations - $4,263 PTA
8. NEW - The Price of Sugar (Mitropoulos Films) - 1 location - $4,162 PTA
9. NEW - Outsourced (Lantern Lane Entertainment) - 8 locations - $3,280 PTA
10. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) - 2,828 locations - $2,599 PTA
*Feast of Love (MGM) - 1,200 locations - $1,583 PTA
*Trade (IDP Films) - 90 locations - $1,289 PTA
*Sharkwater (Freestyle Releasing) - 60 locations - $525 PTA