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Angels vs. Red Sox - ALDS Preview

As the Halos get ready for Game 1 of the ALDS on Wednesday at Fenway Park, I'm looking forward to a the big Angels rally at The Big A tomorrow (Monday). Ireland is on "Kobe Watch" - it's Lakers media day and then on a plane to Hawaii - so I'll be doing The Big Show under "the hats" with 710 ESPN Senior Reporter Dave Denholm and "man-on-the-street" Jason Pohlman.

The Angels won 2 outta 3 at Oakland over the weekend, but they did lose to the A's 3-2 in the regular season finale Sunday. If you were watching the Halos' 2-0 win on Friday night, you might have seen this priceless moment from Vlad Guerrero.

Much has been made of the fact that the Red Sox have "had the Angels' number" the last couple of years. Maybe the Sox "have their number," but they, by no means, "own" the Halos. Boston won 6 of 10 this year, but the 2 teams split the season series at 3 games apiece in 2006.

Over the past 4 regular seasons, Boston has a 20-15 record against the Angels, but if you include the 2004 ALDS, a Red Sox sweep, the record runs to 23-15.

Only 8 Halos who played in that 3-game Sox sweep are still on the roster. Gone are guys like David Eckstein, Troy Glaus, Benjie Molina, Kevin Gregg and Jarrod Washburn.

Here are the 2004 ALDS stats for the 8 current Angels who were part of Boston's sweep.

HITTERS
Garrett Anderson - 13AB - 2H - 0RBI - 3K - .154BA
Chone Figgins - 14AB - 2H - 0RBI - 5K - .143BA
Vlad Guerrero - 12AB - 2H - 1HR - 6RBI - 4K - .167BA
Casey Kotchman - 1AB - 0H - 0RBI - 0K - .000BA

PITCHERS
Bartolo Colon - 1G - 0-0 - 6IP - 7H - 3ER - 3W - 3K - 4.50ERA
Kelvim Escobar - 1G - 0-0 - 3 1/3IP - 5H - 3ER - 5W - 4K - 8.10ERA
Scot Shields - 2G - 0-0 - 3IP - 5H - 2ER - 2W - 3K - 6.00ERA
Francisco Rodriguez - 2G - 0-2 - 4 2/3IP - 4H - 2ER - 3W - 5K - 3.86ERA

The Angels were blown out of that 5 game series and were outscored 25-12....and the Halos had home field advantage. Schilling shut them down in Game 1, Frankie entered a tie game and lost game 2, and Jarrod Washburn gave up David Ortiz's walk-off homer in the finale at Fenway.

LAA has been so great at home this year, so home field might have made a difference, but they'll have to find a way. It almost definitely must start with a split of the first 2 games in Boston.

More analysis soon.

GAME PLAN with $9.87M on Saturday & headed for 3-day of $22.24M; KINGDOM adds $6.6M & should reach $17.23M O.W.; DARJEELING w/$36,000+ per screen on Saturday; LUST, CAUTION near capacity in NYC

Another weekend tracking the box office over at Fantasy Moguls, and here are my 2 analysis pieces published Friday night and Saturday night.

SATURDAY NIGHT: After scoring a narrow box office win over The Kingdom (Universal) on Friday, The Game Plan (Buena Vista) has turned it into a good old-fashioned “blow-out”. While the Peter Berg-directed thriller saw a 13% or so uptick from opening day, Disney’s gridiron family comedy received a huge “kiddie bounce.”

The Game Plan starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson has surged to an estimated $9.87M on Saturday, and it will likely wrap up the weekend with $22.24M or so. For Johnson, this is a greater feat than any of his pro wrestling championships. The Rock has real box office muscle. If that number holds, it’ll mark the 3rd-best opening of his young movie career, trailing only The Scorpion King ($36M), a CGI-driven Mummy sequel, and Be Cool ($23.4M), an ensemble comedy with several bigger names including John Travolta.

The big budget Saudi-set Universal action picture, with a cast that includes Jamie Foxx and Jennifer Garner, is a bit of a disappointment. The Kingdom added $6.6M on Saturday, and it should manage to reach an estimated $17.23M, but that’s well under industry expectations. Zombie sequel Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) crawled to about $3.26M on its 2nd Saturday, and it’ll lumber to a likely $7.49M by Monday morning, putting it just over $36M in its first 10 days of release. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate), with an estimated $5.75M, and 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate), with about $3.9M, should round out the weekend Top 5.

The Wes Anderson comedy The Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) opened on 2 screens in New York City on Saturday, and there can’t have been many empty seats. On 3 screens at the Regal Cinemas Union Square 14 and 1 screen at the AMC Loews Lincoln Square, the India-set comedy starring Owen Wilson, Adrien Brody and Jason Schwartzman has generated a Per Location Average of just over $36,728. The unorthodox Saturday opening will allow Darjeeling Limited to coast to a relatively easy 3-day PTA win with an estimated $66,750 per.

At #2 in the PTA race is Ang Lee’s Lust, Caution (Focus Features), which has its only engagement, on 2 screens, at New York City’s Lincoln Plaza Cinemas on the Upper West Side. The Venice Film Festival winner is playing to near capacity houses and has delivered about $23,000 in sales on its 2nd day, and the Chinese language noir thriller is headed for a weekend PTA of just over $61,000.

Sean Penn’s Into the Wild from Paramount Vantage expanded to 33 locations, and the adventure drama is showing real box office drawing power. At the end of Sunday business, it will have posted an excellent $600,000 3-day and a 3-day PTA of nearly $19,000 per location.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - The Game Plan (Buena Vista) - $9.87M - $3,182 PTA - $16.1M cume
2. NEW – The Kingdom (Universal) - $6.6M - $2,365 PTA - $12.6M cume
3. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) – $3.26M - $1,154 PTA - $34.4M cume
4. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) - $2.34M - $899 PTA - $21.6M cume
5. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) - $1.67M - $629 PTA - $42.5M cume
6. The Brave One (Warner Bros) – $1.65M - $599 PTA - $29.8M cume
7. Eastern Promises (Focus Features) – $1.36M – $966 PTA - $10.7M cume
8. Mr. Woodcock (New Line) – $1.29M - $591 PTA - $18.8M cume
9. Sydney White (Universal) - $1.12M - $536 PTA - $7.8M cume
10. Across the Universe (Sony) - $794,600 - $2,344 PTA - $4.9M cume
*NEW - Feast of Love (MGM) - $682,600 - $569 PTA - $1.2M cume
*In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) - $633,250 - $831 PTA - $2.9M cume
*Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $519,000 - $1,020 PTA - $314.7M cume
*Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) - $242,300 - $7,344 PTA - $726,000 cume
*NEW – Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) - $73,400 - $36,700 PTA - $73,400
*The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) - $68,200 - $1,705 PTA - $330,000 cume
*NEW – Trade (IDP Films) - $40,000 - $443 PTA - $75,000 cume
*The Assassination of Jesse James… (Warner Bros) - $35,000 - $7,000 PTA - $271,000 cume
*NEW – Lust, Caution (Focus Features) - $23,000 - $23,000 PTA - $42,000 cume
*NEW - Sharkwater (Freestyle Releasing) - $12,700 - $212 PTA - $22,000 cume
*NEW – Outsourced (Lantern Lane Entertainment) - $5,622 - $703 PTA - $13,000 cume
*NEW – The Price of Sugar (Mitropoulos Films) - $1,344 - $1,344 PTA - $2,533 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - The Game Plan (Buena Vista) - $22.24M - $7,170 PTA - $22.24M cume
2. NEW – The Kingdom (Universal) - $17.23M - $6,171 PTA - $17.23M cume
3. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) – $7.49M - $2,649 PTA - $36.2M cume
4. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) - $5.75M - $2,205 PTA - $23M cume
5. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) - $3.88M - $1,456 PTA - $43.6M cume
6. The Brave One (Warner Bros) – $3.65M - $1,328 PTA - $30.7M cume
7. Eastern Promises (Focus Features) – $3.2M – $2,275 PTA - $11.5M cume
8. Mr. Woodcock (New Line) – $2.86M - $1,306 PTA - $19.4M cume
9. Sydney White (Universal) - $2.7M - $1,284 PTA - $8.5M cume
10. Across the Universe (Sony) - $1.98M - $5,865 PTA - $5.4M cume
*NEW - Feast of Love (MGM) - $1.7M - $1,418 PTA - $1.7M cume
*In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) - $1.48M - $1,946 PTA - $3.4M cume
*Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $1.13M - $2,231 PTA - $315.1M cume
*Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) - $619,000 - $18,800 PTA - $917,000 cume
*The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) - $161,200 - $4,032 PTA - $374,000 cume
*NEW – Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) - $133,500 - $66,750 PTA - $133,500
*NEW – Trade (IDP Films) - $102,000 - $1,129 PTA - $102,000 cume
*The Assassination of Jesse James… (Warner Bros) - $87,500 - $17,500 PTA - $296,000 cume
*NEW – Lust, Caution (Focus Features) - $61,600 - $61,600 PTA - $61,600 cume
*NEW - Sharkwater (Freestyle Releasing) - $30,000 - $495 PTA - $30,000 cume
*NEW – Outsourced (Lantern Lane Entertainment) - $17,000 - $2,111 PTA - $17,000 cume
*NEW – The Price of Sugar (Mitropoulos Films) - $3,433- $3,433 PTA - $3,433 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY SATURDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) – 2 locations - $36,600 PTA
2. NEW – Lust, Caution (Focus Features) – 1 location - $23,000 PTA
3. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) – 33 locations - $7,344 PTA
4. The Assassination of Jesse James (Warner Bros) – 5 locations - $7,000 PTA
5. NEW – The Game Plan (Buena Vista) – 3,103 locations - $3,182 PTA
6. NEW – The Kingdom (Universal) – 2,793 locations - $2,365 PTA
7. Across the Universe (Sony) – 339 locations - $2,344 PTA
8. The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) – 40 locations - $1,705 PTA
9. NEW – The Price of Sugar (Mitropoulos Films) –1 location - $1,344 PTA
10. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) – 2,828 locations - $1,154 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS REVISED 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW – Darjeeling Limited (Fox Searchlight) – 2 locations - $66,750 PTA
2. NEW – Lust, Caution (Focus Features) – 1 location - $61,600 PTA
3. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) – 33 locations - $18,752 PTA
4. The Assassination of Jesse James (Warner Bros) – 5 locations - $17,565 PTA
5. NEW – The Game Plan (Buena Vista) – 3,103 locations - $7,170 PTA
6. NEW – The Kingdom (Universal) – 2,793 locations - $6,171 PTA
7. Across the Universe (Sony) – 339 locations - $5,865 PTA
8. The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) – 40 locations - $4,032 PTA
9. NEW – The Price of Sugar (Mitropoulos Films) –1 location - $3,433 PTA
10. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) – 2,828 locations - $2,649 PTA

FRIDAY NIGHT: A "Disney-fied" Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson has beaten Universal's big-budget Middle East-set action-thriller The Kingdom for a weekend box office win. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) generated $5.7M on its opening day, and the family movie will likely score an estimated $19.38M after kids flood America's multiplexes on Saturday and Sunday. Meanwhile, the Peter Berg-directed The Kingdom won't get any "kiddie bounce," and it will finish with a softer $16.75M or so.

For Dwayne Johnson, this marks the thrd-best opening of his post-wrestling movie career, just surpassing, ironically, The Rundown, which was directed by Peter Berg.

ALL-TIME TOP 5 DWAYNE "THE ROCK" JOHNSON OPENINGS
1. The Scorpion King - $36M
2. Be Cool - $23.4M
3. The Game Plan - $19.38M (estimate)
4. The Rundown - $18.5M
5. Walking Tall - $15.5M

The Kingdom continues Jamie Foxx's "spotty" box office track record. Only two of his movies, Collateral and Dreamgirls, have hit $100M domestic, and The Kingdom won't get anywhere close to that benchmark, although it will probably finish as the fifth-best opening of the Oscar winner's career.

ALL-TIME TOP 5 JAMIE FOXX OPENINGS
1. Jarhead - $27.7M opening
2. Miami Vice - $25.7M opening
3. Collateral - $24.7M opening
4. Ray - $20M opening
5. The Kingdom - $16.75M (estimate)
6. Ali - $14.7M opening

Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) will finish the weekend third. After a $2.5M second Friday, the zombie sequel should manage $7.35M, representing a monstrous 69% drop from opening weekend. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) will likely suffer a 56% drop from its opening 3-day. The Dane Cook-Jessica Alba "raunchfest" will probably climb just past $6M for the weekend. Rounding out the Top 5 will likely be the Lionsgate Western 3:10 to Yuma with an estimated $4.1M, lifting it past $40M domestic.

Ang Lee's Lust, Caution (Focus Features), a surprise winner at the Venice Film Festival, has opened with numbers in the stratosphere at its one New York engagement. The Chinese language film with an NC-17 rating scored nearly $19,000 on Friday, and it is targeting a $50,000+ opening weekend PTA at the Lincoln Plaza Cinemas on the Upper West Side. The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner Bros), which did not expand from its five "official" opening weekend engagements, delivered another $5,400 or so in PTA Friday, and it will finish no. 2 in PTA for the weekend with an estimated $18,000.

Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage), Sean Penn's terrifically reviewed adventure film starring Emile Hirsch, has expanded strongly to 33 locations. Wild enjoyed a $4,400 PTA on Friday and that should translate to a nearly $16,000 3-day PTA.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - The Game Plan (Buena Vista) - $5.7M - $1,837 PTA - $5.7M cume
2. NEW - The Kingdom (Universal) - $5.55M - $1,987 PTA - $5.55M cume
3. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) - $2.5M - $884 PTA - $31.2M cume
4. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) - $2M - $766 PTA - $19.2M cume
5. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) - $1.2M - $450 PTA - $40.9M cume
6. The Brave One (Warner Bros) - $1.1M - $399 PTA - $28.2M cume
7. Eastern Promises (Focus Features) - $1M - $710 PTA - $9.3M cume
8. Mr. Woodcock (New Line) - $735,000 - $335 PTA - $17.3M cume
9. Sydney White (Universal) - $725,000 - $344 PTA - $6.6M cume
10. Feast of Love (MGM) - $600,000 - $500 PTA - $600,000 cume
*Across the Universe (Sony) - $557,000 - $1,646 PTA - $4M cume
*In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) - $313,000 - $411 PTA - $2.2M cume
*Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $232,000 - $456 PTA - $314.2M cume
*Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) - $147,000 - $4,452 PTA - $521,500 cume
*The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) - $49,000 - $1,218 PTA - $254,000 cume
*The Assassination of Jesse James (Warner Bros) - $26,700 - $5,343 PTA - $235,000 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY ESTIMATES
1. NEW - The Game Plan (Buena Vista) - $19.38M - $6,246 PTA - $19.38M cume
2. NEW - The Kingdom (Universal) - $16.75M - $5,997 PTA - $16.75M cume
3. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) - $7.35M - $2,599 PTA - $36.1M cume
4. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) - $6.08M - $2,328 PTA - $23.3M cume
5. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) - $4.1M - $1,537 PTA - $43.8M cume
6. The Brave One (Warner Bros) - $3.8M - $1,379 PTA - $30.9M cume
7. Eastern Promises (Focus Features) - $3.35M - $2,379 PTA - $11.6M cume
8. Mr. Woodcock (New Line) - $2.35M - $1,072 PTA - $18.9M cume
9. Sydney White (Universal) - $2.13M - $1,016 PTA - $8M cume
10. Feast of Love (MGM) - $1.9M - $1,583 PTA - $1.9M cume
*Across the Universe (Sony) - $1.75M - $5,183 PTA - $5.2M cume
*In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) - $1.14M - $1,501 PTA - $3M cume
*Transformers (Dreamworks/Paramount) - $871,000 - $1,712 PTA - $314.8M cume
*Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) - $522,000 - $15,806 PTA - $820,000 cume
*The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) - $170,500 - $4,263 PTA - $375,000 cume
*The Assassination of Jesse James (Warner Bros) - $91,000 - $18,165 PTA - $299,000 cume

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY FRIDAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Lust, Caution (Focus Features) - 1 location - $18,925 PTA
2. The Assassination of Jesse James (Warner Bros) - 5 locations - $5,343 PTA
3. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) - 33 locations - $4,452 PTA
4. NEW - The Kingdom (Universal) - 2,793 locations - $1,987 PTA
5. NEW - The Game Plan (Buena Vista) - 3,103 locations - $1,837 PTA
6. Across the Universe (Sony) - 339 locations - $1,646 PTA
7. The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) - 40 locations - $1,218 PTA
8. NEW - The Price of Sugar (Mitropoulos Films) - 1 location - $1,189 PTA
9. NEW - Outsourced (Lantern Lane Entertainment) - 8 locations - $937 PTA
10. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) - 2,828 locations - $884 PTA
*Feast of Love (MGM) - 1,200 locations - $500 PTA
*Trade (IDP Films) - 90 locations - $387 PTA
*Sharkwater (Freestyle Releasing) - 60 locations - $150 PTA

EXCLUSIVE FANTASY MOGULS EARLY 3-DAY PTA ESTIMATES
1. NEW - Lust, Caution (Focus Features) - 1 location - $54,883 PTA
2. The Assassination of Jesse James (Warner Bros) - 5 locations - $18,165 PTA
3. Into the Wild (Paramount Vantage) - 33 locations - $15,806 PTA
4. NEW - The Kingdom (Universal) - 2,793 locations - $5,997 PTA
5. NEW - The Game Plan (Buena Vista) - 3,103 locations - $6,246 PTA
6. Across the Universe (Sony) - 339 locations - $5,183 PTA
7. The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony Classics) - 40 locations - $4,263 PTA
8. NEW - The Price of Sugar (Mitropoulos Films) - 1 location - $4,162 PTA
9. NEW - Outsourced (Lantern Lane Entertainment) - 8 locations - $3,280 PTA
10. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) - 2,828 locations - $2,599 PTA
*Feast of Love (MGM) - 1,200 locations - $1,583 PTA
*Trade (IDP Films) - 90 locations - $1,289 PTA
*Sharkwater (Freestyle Releasing) - 60 locations - $525 PTA

GAME PLAN to beat THE KINGDOM at the movies this weekend?

Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson will test his box office muscle this weekend with the PG-rated Buena Vista comedy The Game Plan. This guy is a charismatic screen presence, but he’s apparently been “Disney-fied” according to critics. Rotten Tomatoes gives The Game Plan a Fresh score of just 36%, although MetaCritic gives it a marginally better 43% positive.

The Rock starred in 2006’s Gridiron Gang, which opened to $14.4M and went on to $38.4M domestic, but industry tracking for The Game Plan is lagging some pre-opening numbers for that football drama. Gridiron opened with 16% Un-Aided Awareness compared to just 4% for Game Plan. Last fall’s movie also holds an advantage in Awareness (72%-64%), but The Game Plan has more Definite Interest (40%-38%). Gridiron grabbed a better First Choice score 16%-12%, but because Game Plan is a family comedy, there are a significant number of un-surveyed kids.

Despite the football theme, Universal’s Evan Almighty starring Steve Carell is probably a better comparable to get a feel for how The Game Plan will open.

UN-AIDED AWARENESS
Evan Almighty – 10%
The Game Plan – 4%

TOTAL AWARE
Evan Almighty – 94%
The Game Plan – 64%

DEFINITE INTEREST
Evan Almighty – 40%
The Game Plan – 40%

FIRST CHOICE
Evan Almighty – 20%
The Game Plan – 12%

Despite its bloated budget and becoming the biggest financial loser of 2007, Evan Almighty opened decently with $31.1M. The Game Plan won’t likely be that strong, but it’s fair to expect $19M-$22M, which would make it either the 2nd or 3rd best opening of Dwayne’s career.

ALL-TIME TOP 5 DWAYNE “THE ROCK” JOHNSON OPENINGS
1. The Scorpion King - $36M
2. Be Cool - $23.4M
3. The Rundown - $18.5M
4. Walking Tall - $15.5M
5. Doom - $15.4M

Unlike The Game Plan, The Kingdom (Universal) is a very serious film. This action pic has a political bent, and it would benefit greatly from positive reviews. Unfortunately for director Peter Berg and the talented cast, the notices are running from mixed-to-negative. On Rotten Tomatoes, The Kingdom is getting only a 50% Fresh score from America’s critics, and the very best critics (Rotten Tomatoes calls them “The Cream of the Crop”), the Middle East-based pic is receiving only a 33% rating.

Lisa Schwartzbaum from Entertainment Weekly offers a pretty good summary of the less-than-glowing critical reaction:

“So shameless is THE KINGDOM, ignoring consequence and treating its audience like cash-dispensing machines with buttons to be pushed rather than thinking individuals willing to consider the reality of America's entanglement with the Middle East.”
-- Lisa Schwarzbaum, ENTERTAINMENT WEEKLY

This is the 4th film from Peter Berg, a sometimes actor (Smokin’ Aces), and his last 2 movies have been particularly successful. His first big hit The Rundown, ironically starring Game Plan star The Rock, opened with $18.5M and ultimately hit $47.7M domestic. Then the very well received Friday Night Lights grabbed $20.2M in its first 3 days, ending its run at $61.2M.

Despite his very high profile from his double Oscar nomination year of 2004, only the one that that earned him his Supporting Actor nod, Collateral, and Dreamgirls, in which he played a decidedly supporting role, have hit $100M domestic.

ALL-TIME TOP 5 JAMIE FOXX MOVIES
1. Dreamgirls - $103.3M cume ($378,000 opening)
2. Collateral - $101M cume ($24.7M opening)
3. Any Given Sunday - $75.5M cume ($13.5M opening)
4. Ray - $75.3M cume ($20M opening)
5. Miami Vice - $63.4M cume ($25.7M opening)

Industry tracking suggests that The Kingdom will fall well short of Foxx’s best opening weekends. When it comes to R-rated action pics, Shooter starring Mark Wahlberg is the most recent and most accurate comp.

The Kingdom looks to be headed for an opening weekend just tick better than Shooter’s $14.5M. There was much better Un-Aided Awareness for Shooter (12%-4%), but Total Awareness is a wash with both movies at about 70%. The Berg-directed action movie has more Definite Interest (42%-35%), and The Kingdom has a slightly stronger First Choice number (15%-11%). Here’s a demographic breakdown of the First Choice numbers for these 2 pictures.

FIRST CHOICE - MALES UNDER 25
The Kingdom – 10%
Shooter – 10%

FIRST CHOICE – MALES 25 PLUS
The Kingdom – 31%
Shooter – 21%

FIRST CHOICE – FEMALES UNDER 25
The Kingdom – 6%
Shooter – 6%

FIRST CHOICE – FEMALES 25 PLUS
The Kingdom – 11%
Shooter – 8%

All of these numbers should add up to an opening of $14M-$17M for The Kingdom, which would have to be categorized as a disappointment for Universal.

The other wide release (1,200) screens is Feast of Love from MGM. This is an ensemble movie from the Oscar winning director Robert Benton (Kramer vs. Kramer, Places in the Heart). Reviews are decent with 52% Fresh at Rotten Tomatoes and 58% Positive on MetaCritic, but the meager marketing campaign doesn’t seem to be doing the trick.

Despite a cast that includes Oscar winner Morgan Freeman and Oscar nominee Greg Kinnear, Feast of Love has only a 39% Total Aware, Definite Interest of 30% and a First Choice of 3%, it appears that this Feast will be lightly attended. Don’t look for more than $2M-$3M.

Here are my Final Predictions for 9/28-30:
1. The Game Plan (Buena Vista) - $21.3M
2. The Kingdom (Universal) - $16.5M
3. Resident Evil: Extinction (Sony) - $10.6M
4. Good Luck Chuck (Lionsgate) - $5.9M
5. 3:10 to Yuma (Lionsgate) - $4.9M
6. The Brave One (Warner Bros) - $4.5M
7. Eastern Promises (Focus) - $3.9M
8. Sydney White (Universal) - $2.8M
9. In the Valley of Elah (Warner Independent) - $2.6M
10. Feast of Love (MGM) - $2.5M

"The One Semester of Spanish Love Song"

A couple of years ago, I took a Berlitz Spanish class leading up to a trip to Barcelona. I dropped out after about a month, but came away with enough to put together a few sentences.

I don't understand why I am not fluent in Spanish. I took 4 years of high school Spanish, 3 semesters in college and a month of Berlitz, and still I can barely get by "en espanol" and I certainly couldn't do a full "Programa Grande en el radio." I like "mis equipos favoritos como Los Dodgers, Los Angeles, Los Lakers, Los Clippers and USC jugando futbol Americano, pero yo no soy" fluent (or maybe "fluento.")

This "One Semester of Spanish Love Song" is about my speed.

Musical: Wade Boggs the true "King of Beers"!

Last week, I wrote about the amazing story that Wade Boggs, a 5-time batting champ, was capable of drinking 60-70 beers on a cross-country flight from New York to Seattle. After stumbling onto this link, we tracked down former Yankee reliever Jeff Nelson, who is now a Seattle talk show host. He stuck to his story, and even feels like he might have underestimated the number of beers Wade was able to consume on a 6 hour flight.

Of course, this a spectacular accomplishment! More impressive than 3,000 hits and a bigger achievement than 5 batting championships. At the age of 40, Wade Boggs could drink me, and every one of my college fraternity brothers, under the proverbial table. Wade Boggs is "The God of Beer," and he was worthy of an impromptu musical tribute last week, so here, to the tune of Randy Newman's score for THE NATURAL, is "Beer!" Godspeed Wade!

Halo 3 is as hot as the Halos.

At the Big Show and 710 ESPN, we're amped up for the Halos as they get ready for the ALDS next week, but there's another Halo making news. It's the video game Halo 3 from Microsoft.

According to the Hollywood Reporter, the launch of the latest version of Halo is "the biggest launch in entertainment history." Halo 3 hit 10,000 store shelves Monday night at Midnight, and it sold 2 million copies in its first 24 hours. That's $170M in gross sales. That's insane.

To put that in perspective, Halo 3 grossed more in 24 hours than Spider-Man 3 grossed in its opening 3-day weekend ($151M). For gamers, there are some new ones on the way that could concevably challenge Halo, including Smash Bros. for the Nintendo Wii.

Does it matter who the Angels play in the first round?

First off, let's clear up a major misconception. Home field advantage in the MLB playoffs isn't important. Last year, there were 7 post-season series', and only 1 of them was won by the team with home field advantage (Mets over Dodgers). But, as in all sports, the post-season is about match-ups, and Mike Scioscia seems content to open up the playoffs with a 5-game series against Boston. (Here's some more info about the meaninglessness of home field from Heavenly Thoughts.)

Don't believe that the Red Sox are going to be a pushover. Yes, they've been challenged by the Yankees down the stretch, but keep these facts in mind:

*Manny Ramirez just returned to the lineup after missing 24 games.

*Kevin Youkillis just returned to the lineup. He sat out 8 games with a bruise.

*The Sox shut down All Star lefty reliever Hideki Okajima on September 14. He had a tired arm, but Terry Francona will start working him in again starting Thursday.

*Rookie 2B Dustin Pedroia has been slumping, and Francona has given him a couple of days off during these supposedly "critical" games.

*All of the Red Sox starting pitchers have been on strict pitch counts for weeks. You won't see Josh Beckett throwing 120 pitches anytime soon.

In other words, the Sox have been "loping" down the stretch, and they don't seem like they particularly care if they're the AL East winner or the Wild Card. Overall, the Red Sox have a 6-4 record against the Halos in 2007.

Home field may mean slightly more in this situation because Boston is much better offensively at home. The Sox are hitting .295 at home versus a spotty .261 on the road. Their OBA is .375 and they're Slugging at a .459 clip at Fenway compared to .345 and .421.

As always though, the post-season comes down to pitching. Game 1 will, most likely, pit Josh Beckett against John Lackey. Beckett has killed LAA this year. In 2 starts, he's 1-0 with 13 innings pitched, 11 hits, 2 earned runs, 13 Ks and a 1.38 ERA. On the flipside, Boston has hammered Lackey in 2 starts. He's 0-2 against the Sox allowing 20 hits, 9 earnies and he owns a miserable 8.38 ERA.

Game 2 will be Kelvim Escobar, who has no starts against the Red Sox in 2007, but Kelvim is 0-2 with a 10.19 ERA since September 1. Reports out of Boston are that Curt Schilling will get the ball in Game 2. Schilling has started 3 times against the Halos, and he's been solid, but unspectacular. He's 2-1 allowing 21 hits and 9 earned runs, 1 walk and 12 Ks for a 4.05 ERA

The third game will be Dice-K Matzusaka vs. Jered Weaver. .The Angels haven't faced Dice-K, but he's been awful since September 1 with a 1-1 record and a 9.74 ERA. Meanwhile, Jered has a 6.97 ERA versus Boston with an 0-1 record in 2 starts.

If necessary, Game 4 would be Joe Saunders for LAA. Arguably, he's been the best Angels starter against Boston in 2007 with a 2-0 record, 13 innings pitched, 14 hits, 5 earnies and a 3.46 ERA. He would face Tim Wakefield, who the Angels have destroyed to the tune of 1-1 and a 5.73 ERA.

Ervin Santana will not be used as a starter in the ALDS despite his September record of 2-1 with a 1.27 ERA, easily the best stretch performance of any Angels starter. Hopefully, he can translate that success to some great long relief if one of the Halo starters blows up early. (Maybe Scioscia should conider him in Jered Weaver's slot?)

Keep coming back to the SMOG for lots of great postseason analysis. It's going to be an exciting month, especially for baseball fans and hopefully for the Angels.

Weirdest video of the week: Hot Swedish TV host "ralphs"!

Are you kiddin' me?

I was in Europe last summer, and it seems like every country over there has a show like this. Some hot girl stands in front of a bulletin board with answers or questions or clues on it. People call in and try win money. I've got no idea what's happening, but, at 3am in a cheap Amsterdam hotel room, it's mesmerizing.

This girl is a trooper. She "ralphs," then keeps doing the show? That's great television.

3rd game is the charm for Monday Night Football's Michelle Tafoya!

Big Show listeners, and now, thanks to Tom Hoffarth and Sports Illustrated, which picked up his story, the rest of America knows that Michelle Tafoya has a chance to score a $100 donation to the Humane Society, made in her name, on every Monday Night Football broadcast. John and I come up with a word or words or phrase, and, if she can work it into one of her sideline reports, we cut a check.

In the Monday Night Football opener, we asked her to say "Law & Order" because the Cincinnati Bengals were involved. No dice.

She failed again last week in Philly when we asked her to slip in the name Betsy Ross. (Betsy Ross sewed the first American flag in her house in Philadelphia, which is now a national landmark). That was strike 2 as Michelle again failed.

Fruit Cup, our producer, got an excited text from Michelle tonight. During the New Orleans-Tennessee game, we asked her to say the name of one of the 4 New Orleans "food groups." We defined those as 1) Gumbo, 2) Jambalaya, 3) etouffee or 4) beignet. Her text announces that she was successful, but she didn't provide any details.

She got it done in her very first sideline report. That's about as efficient as a sideline reporter can be. We'll have all of the details and, probably, a congratulatory call with Michelle on Tuesday.

Amazingly, at least 1 blogger is taking suggestions about what word or phrase should be used in a particular game. at a blog called 10,000Takes.com, they're asking for ideas for a word or phrase for the December 17 game between the Bears and Vikings (10,000Takes.com is a Minneapolis-based website).

Feel free to suggest words or phrases for upcoming Monday Night Football games to BigShow@710ESPN.com or text us (only while we're on the air) at 4-0-7-0-5.

David Newbury reports: Trojan RB CJ Gable to CB?

by Former Trojan Kicker and 710 ESPN Analyst David Newbury

After Cary Harris went down in the first quarter of USC's 47-14 win over Washington St. Saturday night, I immediately started thinking about what USC should do to add depth to an already depleted secondary. As I looked at USC's sidelines, I noticed a lot of talent in warm-ups and not dressed, and most of them were defensive backs. Josh Pinkard, Vincent Joseph and Kevin Thomas are all hurt. Then, I saw Cary Harris walk by me with his arm hanging down, and it was obvious it was more than just a tweak. Harris does have a dislocated shoulder and, while we will not know just how bad it is till later on this week, it is clear that SC is dangerously thin in the secondary now.

Shareece Wright will start in Harris's place. The 3rd corner or nickel corner will be Mozique McCurtis. He is battle tested and very talented. He is a CB in a safety's body. He stands 6'1" and weighs 225lbs. In fact he plays both positions. He will start taking more reps at corner to provide USC with much needed depth. After McCurtis, USC is very unproven. You will start to hear the names of Will Harris (a top 5 athlete on the team) and Marshal Jones (a talented freshman from Oaks Christian). Both of them are unproven and untested, but there is no doubting their potential.

I believe the best CB for the job is playing running back right now. Look for CJ Gable to start sitting in on defensive meetings. Before he enrolled at USC he was a two-way star for Sylmar California. He got a shot to play running back right away and surprised everyone by starting over more talented running backs.

With the perfect body to play corner, CJ is tall and lean (6'1", 195lbs) with quick loose hips. He has all of the tools to excel. He is fast and quick, and he has the ability to turn on a dime. This guy can handle the pressure of being on an island. It seems that he will be the odd man out of the running back competition. Gable has seen his carries go to Chauncey Washington and Stafon Johnson. He had one carry against Washington St.. This trend will continue, with Joe McKnight getting better each week and Alan Bradford and Hershel Dennis getting healthy again.

CJ could find himself on the outside looking in. He has more upside and will be of more value to USC at cornerback. He is a competitor and is fearless. It is time to give him a shot to contribute to a USC team that will be in the hunt for a bid to the BCS Championship Game. Going into Pac-10 play, you can never have too many cornerbacks. It is time for USC to prepare him now so that he can be ready to contribute in the stretch run.